Tropical Storm JERRY- Discussion & Images

[CrazyC83]

FINALLY A NORTHERN ATLANTIC STORM!

and a male storm that is not a hurricane hitting land! Dean, Felix, and Humberto all were.

Unless this strengthens out of nowhere ahead of the Azores...higher-latitude storms are VERY unpredictable...

[whereverwx]

Here's a high-quality picture:

[CrazyC83]

Looks like it is building convection near the center...trying to become fully tropical?

[KWT]

Still looks subtropical IMO given where the convective bands are right now, fairly well away from the center of Jerry. Nice looking circulation mind you and will possibly become tropical tomorrow.

[Buck]

It does look like it's trying but not quite there yet. I hope it does even if only for boosting the ACE. Or season is now officially more active (and interesting, if you ask me!) than last but our ACE is lagging behind a whole lot!

[Coredesat]

Subtropical storms don't count toward ACE, so it would need to become tropical to do so.

[Buck]

Subtropical storms don't count toward ACE, so it would need to become tropical to do so.

Right... that is what my whole post was referring to.... I hope it becomes tropical.

[PhillyWX]

FINALLY A NORTHERN ATLANTIC STORM!

and a male storm that is not a hurricane hitting land! Dean, Felix, and Humberto all were.

Unless this strengthens out of nowhere ahead of the Azores...higher-latitude storms are VERY unpredictable...

Until it gets caught up in the mid level flow ahead of a cold front that's going to move across the Atlantic (just cleared the East Coast last night).

[KWT]

Looks like its getting a little more tropical right now however if you run the long loop is it just me or does there appear to be several low level eddies present in a much broader circulation?
Looks like just recently the northerly LLC is becoming a little more dominant.

[Ptarmigan]

I guess there is no JERRY! JERRY! JERRY!

[RL3AO]

TROPICAL STORM JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4

[njweather]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT SUN SEP 23 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM JERRY...LOCATED ABOUT 1045 MILES WEST OF THE AZORES.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON JERRY ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT31 AND
UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT1. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ON JERRY ARE
ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT21 AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT1.
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[HurricaneRobert]

I guess there is no JERRY! JERRY! JERRY!

I was thinking more like "What's the deal with all of these subtropical cyclones?"

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Lots of cold core and ULL's this season=many subtropical systems mostly weak.

[vegastar]

TROPICAL STORM JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112007
500 AM EDT MON SEP 24 2007

DEEP CONVECTION WAS JUST ABOUT GONE AFTER 03Z...BUT IT HAS RECENTLY
RESUMED IN A LOOSELY-CONNECTED BAND IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.
JERRY THEREFORE HANGS ON AS A TROPICAL STORM...WITH AN ESTIMATED
INTENSITY OF 35 KT BASED ON CONTINUITY AND ON DVORAK ESTIMATES. THE
STORM IS CURRENTLY OVER SSTS OF 23-24 CELSIUS AND IS HEADED TOWARD
COOLER WATERS...SO IT IS NOT CERTAIN HOW MUCH LONGER JERRY CAN
MAINTAIN DEEP CONVECTION. THAT WILL SOON BE A MOOT POINT... SINCE
EITHER WAY JERRY WILL MEET ITS DEMISE WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. A
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
EASTERN CANADA IS CLOSING IN FAST ON JERRY. IN RESPONSE THE
TROPICAL STORM IS ACCELERATING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD... AND THE
INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 025/13. JERRY SHOULD TURN A
LITTLE MORE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST TODAY AND SPEED UP AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...EVENTUALLY TO BE ABSORBED BY THE LARGER EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE IN ABOUT 24 HOURS OR SO. DUE TO THE OBSERVED ACCELERATION
AND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST A
LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 24/0900Z 38.6N 45.4W 35 KT
12HR VT 24/1800Z 41.4N 43.0W 35 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT 25/0600Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW

$$
FORECASTER KNABB

[HURAKAN]

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JERRY LAST CHANCE AT INTENSIFICATION.

[HURAKAN]

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[HURAKAN]

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[PhillyWX]

Jerry is about to exit stage right. That front is flying towards the storm.

[HURAKAN]

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