Ex Tropical Depression MELISSA- Discussions & Images

[Cyclenall]

I remember back in 1995 when a "disturbance" developed a clear eye overnight as the NHC was tracking 3-4 other named storms at the time. They described the disturbance as having a "rain-free central area" and upgraded it to a weak TS then gradually to a hurricane. It was clearly already a powerful hurricane near Africa. They just got too busy to notice it.

That is totally unacceptable, even if it was 12 years ago. To not notice a hurricane out in the Atlantic seems odd but it almost happened with Vince in 2005. If it really had an eye, then why is it not shown in the best-track data? Is it a debatable thing among NHC staff?

The system could have been Noel. Wouldn't that have been funny if we were on the "n" name and this was to become Noel again?

[cycloneye]

992
WTNT44 KNHC 282024
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142007
500 PM EDT FRI SEP 28 2007

THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE EARLIER
TODAY. THERE ARE PATCHES OF DEEP CONVECTION BUT THE OUTFLOW IS
BECOMING DISRUPTED. IN FACT...MICROWAVE DATA SHOWS THAT THE CENTER
HAS BECOME EXPOSED AND LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CONVECTION.
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 30 KNOTS. SHIPS MODEL HAS CHANGED ITS
TUNE AND SHOWS INCREASING WIND SHEAR OVER THE DEPRESSION.
CONSEQUENTLY...THE MODEL SHOWS ONLY A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION AND SO
DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE DEPRESSION HAS THE CHANCE...
ALTHOUGH SMALL...TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE THE SHEAR
INCREASES FURTHER. THE DEPRESSION IS NOT EXPECTED TO SURVIVE
BEYOND THREE DAYS.

THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE AND THE BEST ESTIMATE OF
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/4 KNOTS. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO
TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST AROUND THE PERIPHERY
OF A NARROW HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE
GLOBAL MODELS GUIDANCE EXCEPT BEYOND 48 HOURS WHEN GLOBAL GUIDANCE
DISSIPATE THE CYCLONE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/2100Z 14.0N 27.0W 30 KT
12HR VT 29/0600Z 14.4N 27.7W 30 KT
24HR VT 29/1800Z 15.0N 29.0W 35 KT
36HR VT 30/0600Z 15.5N 30.5W 35 KT
48HR VT 30/1800Z 16.5N 32.5W 35 KT
72HR VT 01/1800Z 18.5N 34.5W 25 KT
96HR VT 02/1800Z 20.0N 35.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 03/1800Z 22.5N 36.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[CrazyC83]

No surprise - the shear got this in a hurry. Melissa may have to wait for the next system...

One other note: Melissa replaces a name (Michelle) which replaced a name (Marilyn) - both retired on their first use.

[HURAKAN]

No surprise - the shear got this in a hurry. Melissa may have to wait...

One other note: Melissa replaces a name (Michelle) which replaced a name (Marilyn) - both retired on their first use.

Yep, it seems TD 14 may remain as TD 14.

[Derek Ortt]

that storm was probably Luis... I remember its eye when it was a TS

However, there were storms impacting land at the time. The NHC was right to focus on them. Their job is to help protect property, not to provide the weather enthusiast with storms to track (and if you criticize them... I can only imagine what you think of my policy to not even issue updates and forecasts for storms in the open ocean when land is being threatened)

[Ptarmigan]

This is already a TS if I've ever seen one. NHC can either name it now or ignore it for a few days and wait for it to dissipate. It looks far more impressive than either Karen or Lorenzo. Checking my email, I see that the NHC is looking at it closely. They've just re-run the tropical models on it centered near 14N/26.2W. They didn't include an intensity on the runs, though. Perhaps they're considering admitting it's a storm soon? I remember back in 1995 when a "disturbance" developed a clear eye overnight as the NHC was tracking 3-4 other named storms at the time. They described the disturbance as having a "rain-free central area" and upgraded it to a weak TS then gradually to a hurricane. It was clearly already a powerful hurricane near Africa. They just got too busy to notice it.

I didn't that happened in 1995. It was an active season that time. I think this one could be a TD at least or TS. If so, it would be Melissa.

[HURAKAN]

Waiting for a DMAX pulse tomorrow morning.

[Cyclenall]

that storm was probably Luis... I remember its eye when it was a TS

However, there were storms impacting land at the time. The NHC was right to focus on them. Their job is to help protect property, not to provide the weather enthusiast with storms to track (and if you criticize them... I can only imagine what you think of my policy to not even issue updates and forecasts for storms in the open ocean when land is being threatened)

Here's a solution to that problem...hire more forecasters. The rebuttal to that would be $$$ issues. It's in the name of tropical science and then the rest and focus on other landfalling TC's. But not issuing updates and forecasts out in the open ocean is like going backwards in science progression.

[gilbert88]

Mmm... so... I guess most people would agree this will become Unnamed Tropical Storm #14 after the season wraps up?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Wow, this depression is like that TD 14 a few years ago. This may how ever have a chance once its recurving. But what a tutt and the last 3 years have been Amazing shear wise over the eastern Atlantic.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Mmm... so... I guess most people would agree this will become Unnamed Tropical Storm #14 after the season wraps up?

TD 10 has a real chanec of a upgraded in post season. Because there was data to support tropical storm from recon.

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 290101
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0101 UTC SAT SEP 29 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE FOURTEEN (AL142007) 20070929 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070929 0000 070929 1200 070930 0000 070930 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.2N 27.2W 15.8N 29.0W 17.1N 30.6W 18.5N 32.4W
BAMD 14.2N 27.2W 14.6N 28.1W 15.2N 29.1W 15.8N 30.3W
BAMM 14.2N 27.2W 14.7N 28.5W 15.3N 29.9W 15.9N 31.5W
LBAR 14.2N 27.2W 14.9N 28.0W 16.2N 29.1W 18.2N 30.3W
SHIP 30KTS 31KTS 32KTS 32KTS
DSHP 30KTS 31KTS 32KTS 32KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
071001 0000 071002 0000 071003 0000 071004 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 20.3N 34.1W 23.7N 36.0W 25.4N 34.5W 24.2N 31.6W
BAMD 16.5N 31.8W 18.5N 34.6W 21.2N 36.1W 23.5N 20.0W
BAMM 16.6N 33.3W 18.1N 37.0W 19.9N 40.6W 21.4N 43.5W
LBAR 20.6N 30.8W 26.2N 28.5W 27.9N 21.1W 28.4N 11.8W
SHIP 33KTS 27KTS 0KTS 0KTS
DSHP 33KTS 27KTS 0KTS 0KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 14.2N LONCUR = 27.2W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 14.0N LONM12 = 26.2W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 6KT
LATM24 = 14.0N LONM24 = 25.0W
WNDCUR = 30KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 1008MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$

No Melissa

[chadtm80]

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.4 /1005.8mb/ 34.0kt

[cycloneye]

076
WTNT34 KNHC 290231
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142007
1100 PM AST FRI SEP 28 2007

...DEPRESSION MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH...

AT 1100 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 27.5 WEST OR ABOUT
265 MILES...425 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 6 MPH...10 KM/HR. A
MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON
SATURDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM AST POSITION...14.2 N...27.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


806
WTNT24 KNHC 290230
TCMAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142007
0300 UTC SAT SEP 29 2007

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 27.5W AT 29/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 27.5W AT 29/0300Z
AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 27.2W

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 14.5N 28.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 15.1N 30.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 15.8N 31.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 16.8N 33.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 18.5N 35.0W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 20.5N 37.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 27.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

267
WTNT44 KNHC 290231
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142007
1100 PM EDT FRI SEP 28 2007

CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN HAS
INCREASED DURING THE EVENING...BUT IS BEING DISPLACED EAST OF THE
CENTER BY WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT
OVERPASS DID NOT SHOW ANY WINDS HIGHER THAN 25 KT OUTSIDE THE
CONVECTION...WITH HIGHER SPEEDS IN THE CONVECTION LOOKING SUSPECT
DUE TO RAIN CONTAMINATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT
BASED MAINLY ON PERSISTENCE FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 280/4. THE DEPRESSION IS
ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A WEAK LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE...WHICH THE
LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST WILL WEAKEN AS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THIS EVOLUTION IS FORECAST TO STEER THE
DEPRESSION WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD. MOST OF THE
TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF
MODELS KEEPS A STRONGER RIDGE AND IN CONSEQUENCE SHOWS A MORE
WESTERLY TRACK. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE
LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE ENVELOPE OF
GUIDANCE.

THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST UPPER-LEVEL WINDS TO BE MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK FOR PERHAPS 24
HR. AFTER THAT...THE CYCLONE SHOULD ENCOUNTER SLIGHTLY COOLER
WATERS AND INCREASING SHEAR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST THUS CALLS FOR
SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IN THE FIRST 12-24 HR...FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING
TO A DEPRESSION BY 36 HR AND TO A REMNANT LOW BY 96 HR. NONE OF
THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THE SYSTEM TO EXIST AS A CLOSED
CIRCULATION BY 120 HR...SO THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR
DISSIPATION BY THAT TIME.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/0300Z 14.2N 27.5W 30 KT
12HR VT 29/1200Z 14.5N 28.5W 35 KT
24HR VT 30/0000Z 15.1N 30.0W 35 KT
36HR VT 30/1200Z 15.8N 31.8W 30 KT
48HR VT 01/0000Z 16.8N 33.2W 30 KT
72HR VT 02/0000Z 18.5N 35.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING
96HR VT 03/0000Z 20.5N 37.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 04/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Looking over the data I would have to say that this was a 40-45 knot tropical storm this morning. But the shear has done a number to it, maybe its starting to come back tonight. There is no question this needs to be upgraded to a unnamed tropical storm at least in post season.

[HURAKAN]

It looks better.

[americanrebel]

When do the new numbers come out? If they haven't already, I think this will be TS Melissa.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

They just did, and its still a depression. No real data to support it as a tropical storm at the moment. But it very likely was one earlier today. Also if convection keeps forming we will have to see tomarrow morning.

[Chacor]

The advisory held it at 35 mph.