INVEST 92L: Bahamas : Gone fron NRL

[boca]

Does anyone else agree that the center should be around 27n judging by the visible loop?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

[Typhoon_Willie]

Well we had 2 canes that were not false alarms in Dean and Felix this year. And this system is trying to develope in an area that is noted for another major cane. The 1935 Keys hurricane formed quite close to this area. And no problem there Stormcenter but I am pointing out that October is a very active month and this system is trying to form in an area that has had a history of major cane formation. Yes the jury is still out as to whether or not this system will do the same but it should be monitored by all concerned.

[hurricanetrack]

That is funny, some are saying this could go to Mexico and that is well over a week away. Is it possible that the United States can be this lucky three times in a row? Let's assume this becomes a major hurricane and it does go right in to Mexico- that would mean that all 3 majors this year missed the U.S. well to the south. Anyone out there ever think THAT would happen?

Still, we are talking over a week away and the longer this takes to get to 22 and 90, the better the odds it never gets past 92 west. That's just my opinion.

[Sanibel]

In that case I think you would then see 92L keep 90L down. They are too close for the stronger not to check the weaker.

We've had dry clear air here in the last week. This is now an October environment for any analogies.

[Stormcenter]

except that every single la nina event since 1998 has had at least a cat 4 in October and November. The chances of not seeing a major prior to the end of the season are much less than the chances that we do

So not to put you on the spot here but I guess I am. Are you saying that this has the chance of becoming a Cat. 4 hurricane in October?

[Derek Ortt]

not really

90L has no outflow and 92L does not yet have outflow extending to the GOM

[Derek Ortt]

I'm not saying that, stormcenter

I am saying that we should expect to have at least 1 more cat 3 or higher before the end of the season

[Stormcenter]

That is funny, some are saying this could go to Mexico and that is well over a week away. Is it possible that the United States can be this lucky three times in a row? Let's assume this becomes a major hurricane and it does go right in to Mexico- that would mean that all 3 majors this year missed the U.S. well to the south. Anyone out there ever think THAT would happen?

Still, we are talking over a week away and the longer this takes to get to 22 and 90, the better the odds it never gets past 92 west. That's just my opinion.

What would concern me is if and believe me that is still a big if this were to develop is that a strong Cold front might pull this North or NE eastward back toward the U.S. if it hangs around the GOM long enough.

[Typhoon_Willie]

Actually both are too weak for any sort of fujiwara effect to commence on each other IMO.

[hurricanetrack]

Does anyone else agree that the center should be around 27n judging by the visible loop?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

Looks reasonable to me. Watching the loop, I cannot see a LLC near 25 and 74. I am looking really hard, and just cannot see it there. Looks more NE to me. It's ok though, they might have plugged in what they thought would be a good center to start the process. No biggy yet. Wait til the 18z models and see if it jumps NE.

Let's just hope it does not develop much before getting to FL- if it does affect FL at all.

[Stormcenter]

I'm not saying that, stormcenter

I am saying that we should expect to have at least 1 more cat 3 or higher before the end of the season

Thanks for the clarification Derek and I hope you are wrong about
another Cat. 3. I'm ready for some cold weather.

[cycloneye]

From Dr Jeff Masters Blog

Disturbance 92L east of the Bahamas
Of greater concern to me is an area of heavy thunderstorm activity associated with a surface trough of low pressure (92L) that has developed just east of the Bahama Islands. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed an east-west oriented zone of converging winds at 27N between 69W and 72W, but no surface circulation. Satellite loops show a large area of disorganized thunderstorm activity that is not getting better organized. This disturbance is under about 10-15 knots of wind shear. Wind shear is expected to remain ten knots or less over 92L for the next five days. The computer models expect 92L will move slowly west-southwest over the Bahamas, then the Florida Straits or Cuba during the next three days. By Saturday, the GFS and ECMWF models predict a tropical depression could form in the Western Caribbean or southern Gulf of Mexico. The NOGAPS and UKMET model forecast that development Monday is more likely. These are the highest heat content waters in the Atlantic, and with a upper-level anticyclone with light wind shear expected to set up over the disturbance, the potential exists for a hurricane to form from 92L next week. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate 92L Thursday afternoon.

http://www.weatherunderground.com/blog/ ... amp=200710

[JPmia]

12Z NAM

Has it coming more west after +60 towards S.FL/Keys...Watching trends...


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_084l.gif

Boy, I have a feeling we are about to get a lot more rain. Though, I will wait until we actually get something to track and then we can think about if we should worry or not.

[Sanibel]

There's a tiny, weak LLC in that location that looks like a spent vortex off the greater circulation. That is why I said 90L has weakened 92L. Whether there is another main center under the convection I don't know.

[hurricanetrack]

Interesting that SHIPS makes this a tropical storm in 36 hours. That is well before Monday....

[Ed Mahmoud]

Not everybody thinks much of JB, but back in June he thought seasonal pattern would favor an October Caribbean to Florida hurricane...



If this forms, I guess, big question, does ridge hold and into Mexico, or does trough come by and turn it North or Northeast towards Central or Eastern Gulf?

[mightyerick]

That is funny, some are saying this could go to Mexico and that is well over a week away. Is it possible that the United States can be this lucky three times in a row? Let's assume this becomes a major hurricane and it does go right in to Mexico- that would mean that all 3 majors this year missed the U.S. well to the south. Anyone out there ever think THAT would happen?

Still, we are talking over a week away and the longer this takes to get to 22 and 90, the better the odds it never gets past 92 west. That's just my opinion.

Looks like 2007 Hurricanes really hate Central america.

[Sanibel]

Not everybody thinks much of JB, but back in June he thought seasonal pattern would favor an October Caribbean to Florida hurricane...

That's sort of like saying August and September favor Cape Verde systems.

[Portastorm]

Not everybody thinks much of JB, but back in June he thought seasonal pattern would favor an October Caribbean to Florida hurricane...



If this forms, I guess, big question, does ridge hold and into Mexico, or does trough come by and turn it North or Northeast towards Central or Eastern Gulf?

Ed, I notice a curious absence of the phrase "western Gulf" in your post!

[Chacor]

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORMING A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BECOME FAVORABLE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD FORM IN THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE TODAY...BUT BEGIN A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION ON
THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.