TD INGRID: Discussions & Images - Last Advisory

[BigA]

Looking at the quickSCAT at about 42 west (a little farther west now) it looks wondrous close to a closed circulation if not already there. But I am subject to large error.

[Praxus]

The anticipation builds before the 10:30 PM Tropical Weather Outlook is released,to see how NHC is agressive in the wording by the events of tonight.

Looks like they may have something else to track soon - nasty blob joining the parade

[caneman]

Yep, wait until WED up to 11pm even or later until a closed LLC is proven by QS...

Closed centers don't get "proven" by QS, as QS can be wrong. Only direct observations (ship, recon, buoy) can conclusively prove the existence of a closed circulation.

I think we're looking at semantics here. While I understand your point as far as defintive proof, If NHC has used QS to classify systems before, which I'm fairly sure they have, then thats good enough for me. If I'm wrong feel free to correct me. In other words, it must be reliable enough or proof enough of an LLC for NHC to do an upgrade based on QS.

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT TUE SEP 11 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONCENTRATED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1200
MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT
DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LOW
PRESSURE AREA LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAS
DIMINISHED THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/LANDSEA

[HURAKAN]

Looking at the quickSCAT at about 42 west (a little farther west now) it looks wondrous close to a closed circulation if not already there. But I am subject to large error.

I have to say that I enjoy this kind of discussions because it's when we learn.

[tropicsgal05]

Won't they send the hurricane hunters out to check where the center of circulation is?

[caneman]

Won't they send the hurricane hunters out to check where the center of circulation is?

Too far out. Closer to the islands. This is where QS comes in handy along with other obs.

[canegrl04]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT TUE SEP 11 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONCENTRATED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1200
MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT
DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LOW
PRESSURE AREA LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAS
DIMINISHED THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/LANDSEA

TD tomorrow or bust

[BigA]

I have to say that I enjoy this kind of discussions because it's when we learn.

I have to say that I enjoy this kind of discussions because it's when we learn.[/quote]

So do I. As an 18 year old college freshman who has tracked hurricanes since Fran in 96, I feel that I enter each season with greater and greater knowledge.

['CaneFreak]

Won't they send the hurricane hunters out to check where the center of circulation is?

Yes...but not until 55W...dont have enough fuel to go to anything any further east...

[jaxfladude]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT TUE SEP 11 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONCENTRATED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 1200
MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT
DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD LOW
PRESSURE AREA LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAS
DIMINISHED THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/LANDSEA

at the TWO

[Coredesat]

That's pretty much what it said at 5:30, although it does look pretty good right now.

[HURAKAN]

Latest:



The is no question that based on satellite images and quikscat information 91L is on its way to become a depression. Tomorrow's DMAX could be the final push that the disturbance needs. Time will tell.

[Vortex]

After examining the globals and suite of hurricane models this could pose a threat to the northern leewards and PR. Also, beyond 5 days strong ridging may be set-up along the EX and western atlantic...I'm less sure about an out to sea track than I was 24 hrs ago..

[caneman]

Latest:



The is no question that based on satellite images and quikscat information 91L is on its way to become a depression. Tomorrow's DMAX could be the final push that the disturbance needs. Time will tell.

Well reviewing all the data, I think if it were close to being a threat to land it would be named as its about as close as it gets. Looks good.....

[caneman]

As slow as this thing is movin, it may well not only be the next named system but also the last one off the board for the season.

[chadtm80]

http://www.storm2k.org/wx/index.php

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Based on the quickscat and satellite it appears to becoming a depression. One question I have is why did the nhc repeat what it said at 5:30pm est today? Based on the "data" they could of said that if current trends keep up a depression could be forming. That would be to the point.

But thats just my option. Everyone has one.

[RL3AO]

They were a little stronger with their words.

5:30 TWO
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN A DAY OR TWO

10:30 TWO
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION

[Ed Mahmoud]

Does the WP-3D Orion have better range, and that is why one is suggested for a possible mission Thursday night? Or do they just have some kind of science project in a developing TC they'd like to carry out.


I know in the early 1970s, after the difficulty of supplying Israel while the Russians were re-arming Syria and Egypt, and nobody but the Dutch would allow Israel bound planes to land for refueling, that the USAF starting modifying C-141s, with added sections actually inserted near the wing, that had an in-air refueling port. It was determined that the wings of the original C-141 were engineered well enough to handle the up-sized aircraft and its larger cargo capacity, and that the original unstretched planes filled up before becoming overweight.


Maybe if/when they develop the WC-130 K version, they can add a refueling port and they can start hitting invests at 45ºW.



BTW, I was a passenger on a C-141B between Diego Garcia and al-Masirah, Oman. No windows, so best to bring a book. I think the last C-141s have been phased out of USAF service as the C-17 has replaced it.