Tropical Depression HUMBERTO Discussion & Images

[Derek Ortt]

probably a 20% chance of this reaching hurricane status before landfall

However, gusts to hurricane force are very possible from this system

[ROCK]

I'm on the upper TX coast just east of Houston. I'm wondering how possible/probable this storm will become a hurricane, albeit minimal. Any have an idea? Thanks.

Baytown huh....if present track verifies you will probably get the core rains and winds.......weak cat 1 not out of the question attm....tightening up and expanding....winds have not got up with the pressure just yet.....going to be close IMO....

[fasterdisaster]

I'm on the upper TX coast just east of Houston. I'm wondering how possible/probable this storm will become a hurricane, albeit minimal. Anyone have an idea? Thanks.

The NHC says 20 percent.

They're the professionals, and I'm not, but my personal guess with a BIG grain of salt would be 25 percent maybe. Not too high, but high enough to be alert.

[TexasSam]

I'm on the upper TX coast just east of Houston. I'm wondering how possible/probable this storm will become a hurricane, albeit minimal. Anyone have an idea? Thanks.

Hey another person in Baytown! I kind of doubt it will make it ti a Hurricane, but on the other hand I didn't expect to wake up to a TD, and quickly to a Tropical Storm.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 122303
AF306 0209A CYCLONE HDOB 39 20070912
225300 2818N 09515W 8415 01580 0088 +176 +000 307027 028 026 002 00
225330 2819N 09514W 8418 01577 0085 +180 +000 299028 028 026 006 00
225400 2820N 09513W 8418 01574 0084 +180 +000 296030 030 029 006 00
225430 2821N 09512W 8419 01570 0082 +176 +000 299030 031 030 007 00
225500 2822N 09510W 8417 01570 0081 +172 +000 296029 030 032 004 00
225530 2823N 09509W 8423 01562 0077 +176 +000 297030 031 033 005 00
225600 2825N 09508W 8420 01564 0075 +175 +000 298031 031 033 008 00
225630 2826N 09507W 8417 01566 0073 +170 +000 295032 032 035 008 00
225700 2827N 09505W 8417 01560 0072 +167 +000 296033 035 038 006 03
225730 2828N 09504W 8418 01556 0065 +171 +000 302031 032 038 004 00
225800 2830N 09503W 8417 01555 0059 +177 +000 300031 032 029 005 00
225830 2831N 09502W 8417 01549 0053 +178 +000 298031 032 031 007 00
225900 2832N 09501W 8424 01538 0050 +175 +000 304029 030 033 006 00
225930 2833N 09500W 8417 01542 0048 +169 +000 306032 033 033 008 00
230000 2835N 09459W 8414 01538 0045 +163 +000 309030 034 034 009 00
230030 2836N 09458W 8419 01528 0038 +165 +000 311027 028 033 008 03
230100 2837N 09457W 8417 01526 0026 +173 +000 304025 026 038 002 00
230130 2838N 09456W 8419 01518 0024 +170 +000 304023 024 031 004 03
230200 2840N 09455W 8416 01517 0014 +176 +000 304025 027 027 006 00
230230 2841N 09453W 8425 01498 0008 +169 +000 313026 028 035 010 00
$$

[srainhoutx]

I'm on the upper TX coast just east of Houston. I'm wondering how possible/probable this storm will become a hurricane, albeit minimal. Anyone have an idea? Thanks.

If you live West of Decker Drive and South of Market Street or along Goose Creek, flooding would be my main concern regardless of a Cat1 or Strong TS.

[Extremecane]

Looking great, eyewall improved very well:

[Extremeweatherguy]

That ENE motion illusion is finally gone from the radar loop. The N or NNE track has resumed for sure..

http://www.weatherunderground.com/radar ... rainsnow=0

[Steve]

>>give it a day Steve, it will be right over you if those loopy models verify.......

That's pretty wild. I've got some storms coming up on me now, but if it looped back down, that would be pretty insane. I've been off the CPU all day and probably will until later on tonight. But I'll try to check in to keep up.

Steve

[KatDaddy]

Watching Humberto on radar. Moving almost due N and it has what looks to be an eyewall that has just developed

http://www.myfoxhouston.com/myfox/pages ... pageId=9.1

I am in N Galveston County and looks like the League City area will be getting a large feederband shortly.

[Cape Verde]

I'm in the western edge of Houston, so this is likely to more of a windstorm than a deluge for me. Galveston, Kemah, and points east into Louisiana are going to have to deal with the water.

I'm just experiencing some fine tropical mist and some breezes from the east at the moment.

I am just stunned by the rapid development of this system. It wasn't even a news item early this morning on local Houston television. Now it has 61 mph winds sitting 45 miles offshore. We are very lucky this didn't develop yesterday, because at the rate of its intensification, we would have been caught completely offguard from what certainly would have been a strengthening hurricane.

[PhillyWX]

Updated photos of Humberto from TWC, including the waves coming into the Galveston.

http://philadelphiaweather.blogspot.com/2007/09/tv-coverage-of-humberto-wednesday_12.html

[DrewFL]

Latest center fix:

http://maps.google.com/maps?q=28.7,-94. ... 48437&om=1

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 122313
AF306 0209A CYCLONE HDOB 40 20070912
230300 2842N 09452W 8423 01493 9993 +180 +000 309015 018 033 009 00
230330 2843N 09451W 8415 01493 9982 +187 +000 306008 012 015 004 00
230400 2845N 09450W 8424 01483 9983 +182 +000 114006 011 010 003 03
230430 2845N 09449W 8414 01494 9984 +184 +000 147018 022 025 004 03
230500 2846N 09447W 8407 01508 0008 +160 +000 153034 040 044 016 00
230530 2847N 09445W 8432 01492 0024 +151 +000 147036 037 045 020 00
230600 2847N 09444W 8417 01517 0033 +148 +000 150036 037 043 016 00
230630 2847N 09442W 8418 01521 0041 +149 +000 151037 040 041 012 00
230700 2848N 09440W 8413 01533 0040 +160 +000 154038 039 038 010 00
230730 2848N 09439W 8421 01529 0050 +154 +000 157039 040 047 000 00
230800 2849N 09437W 8420 01536 0061 +146 +000 165046 053 045 012 00
230830 2849N 09435W 8428 01533 0068 +143 +000 160052 055 051 025 00
230900 2850N 09434W 8409 01557 0075 +144 +000 167048 050 049 014 00
230930 2850N 09432W 8417 01553 0082 +140 +000 155048 050 047 018 00
231000 2851N 09430W 8418 01553 0090 +136 +000 150044 046 045 017 00
231030 2851N 09429W 8416 01563 0092 +141 +000 150042 042 040 016 00
231100 2852N 09427W 8418 01564 0081 +163 +000 153040 040 038 008 00
231130 2852N 09426W 8415 01572 0092 +154 +000 157038 040 038 007 00
231200 2852N 09424W 8410 01579 0092 +158 +000 161037 037 036 006 00
231230 2853N 09422W 8420 01574 0099 +155 +000 163037 037 033 007 00
$$

55 kt FL, still 998mb.

[Downdraft]

There seem to be a number of posts down playing this system because it's not a hurricane. For those that remember Allison they wouldn't make that mistake again. Tropical storms can kill just as many people as a hurricane if the flooding is bad enough. The major release of energy from any tropical cyclone is from rain not wind. NO ONE should underestimate a tropical cyclone of any strength if they are in it's path. I suggest you follow the guidance of emergency management authorities and remember planning for a cyclone always means to plan one full category higher than the forecast.

[CrazyC83]

There seem to be a number of posts down playing this system because it's not a hurricane. For those that remember Allison they wouldn't make that mistake again. Tropical storms can kill just as many people as a hurricane if the flooding is bad enough. The major release of energy from any tropical cyclone is from rain not wind. NO ONE should underestimate a tropical cyclone of any strength if they are in it's path. I suggest you follow the guidance of emergency management authorities and remember planning for a cyclone always means to plan one full category higher than the forecast.

Remember that Erin, which was a tropical depression at the time, killed more people on its main landfall than Dean, which was a Category 5...

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 122323
AF306 0209A CYCLONE HDOB 41 20070912
231300 2854N 09420W 8418 01579 0101 +155 +000 160035 036 032 006 00
231330 2854N 09418W 8420 01579 0101 +158 +000 156031 032 030 004 00
231400 2855N 09416W 8417 01584 0103 +160 +000 158031 031 029 004 00
231430 2855N 09414W 8413 01588 0104 +160 +000 161030 031 027 004 00
231500 2856N 09412W 8418 01584 0108 +158 +000 170030 031 027 003 00
231530 2856N 09410W 8418 01585 0108 +156 +000 172031 033 028 003 00
231600 2857N 09408W 8419 01584 0107 +159 +000 173032 033 027 004 00
231630 2857N 09406W 8418 01588 0107 +162 +000 171034 035 027 004 00
231700 2858N 09404W 8414 01591 0109 +161 +000 167037 038 030 004 00
231730 2858N 09402W 8418 01590 0111 +156 +000 168036 037 030 007 00
231800 2859N 09400W 8430 01576 0114 +156 +000 167034 036 032 008 00
231830 2859N 09358W 8416 01592 0114 +156 +000 168032 033 031 007 00
231900 2900N 09357W 8419 01588 0115 +158 +000 172036 037 035 009 00
231930 2900N 09355W 8422 01588 0128 +140 +000 171034 034 036 012 00
232000 2901N 09353W 8418 01592 0131 +137 +000 169033 034 039 014 00
232030 2901N 09351W 8425 01588 0127 +145 +000 166036 038 036 012 00
232100 2902N 09349W 8405 01608 0117 +157 +000 160033 034 034 011 00
232130 2902N 09348W 8410 01598 0125 +143 +000 156030 030 033 020 00
232200 2903N 09346W 8445 01561 0129 +136 +000 169033 041 030 032 00
232230 2903N 09344W 8452 01559 0127 +143 +000 166036 036 032 013 00
$$

[CrazyC83]

URNT12 KNHC 122323
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092007
A. 12/23:03:50Z
B. 28 deg 44 min N
094 deg 50 min W
C. 850 mb 1407 m
D. 42 kt
E. 221 deg 21 nm
F. 299 deg 035 kt
G. 221 deg 020 nm
H. 998 mb
I. 15 C/ 1532 m
J. 20 C/ 1537 m
K. 17 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/8
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF306 0209A CYCLONE OB 25
MAX FL WIND 55 KT OUTBOUND E QUAD 23:08:30 Z
MAX SFC WINDS 51 KT OUTBOUND E QUAD 23:08:40 Z

55 kt FL, 51 kt surface winds - 998mb.

[Buck]

Wow, it looks like a hurricane on the radar loop. Very impressive presence for a TS.




This will probably be over land for long enough to keep it from restrengthening again (at least very far) should it come back over water like some of the models suggest it might. What do our pros think? Could this thing loop back around and head south back into the gulf?

[Epsilon_Fan]

this thing really wound up! What's with these rapid intensifications this season... it's like they don'r want to be a TS for long