Invest 94L,Near Windwards-Discussions

[Agua]

Folks, the writing is on the wall, even though the models don't show what will likely be Felix or Gabrielle or who ever too well (if at all) it is clear what IS there. A nice ridge stretching from Africa to the Baja. If this makes it past 15 north ever, I will be shocked. We are still apparently locked in to this low latitude track regime and like I said before, if these late bloomers continue, let's say we get three more like this, and the month of Sept. wears on, one of them will come north. I just hate to see what might be in store for people in Central America from this thing. Loss of life there from tropical cyclones is usually epic. For that reason, let it come on north!

If it's going "north!", let it do it now, NOT when it can be a threat to the US.

[ronjon]

I agree with JMs analysis on the center being closer to 12N-56W from that microwave image. All the heavy convection is on the south side and you can clearly see the curvature centered near 12N. On the future track, depends how fast that trough lifts out east of FL over the next 48 hrs - what I see now is once it makes it to around 60W it will turn W-NW or NW. I'm not sure about all the talk of model consensus - the BAMs, GFDL, & HWHARF are close but where is UKMET, GFS, NOGAPs? The FSU Tropical Model moves the system much more to the NW into southern Cuba in 5 days. As far as 5 days out, I respect what wxman57 and Derek are saying about the building ridge & if that pans out no doubt a CA storm. However, we are starting September tomorrow and mid-latitude upper air patterns have a habit of playing nasty tricks 5-7 days out.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Im still not convinced SA won't ruin the party before it begins...IMO this has no shot on current track..

[RL3AO]

I think SA might disrupt some convection, but I don't think it is going to make landfall on the Venezuelan mainland.

[wxman57]

A difference of opinion between the Pro's, I like it. ...

What different forecasts are you seeing? Any of the pros here see a track other than to about 270-280 degrees through 3-4 days? 280 degrees would be Belize, by the way.

[dtrain44]

NHC Tropical Disturbance statement:

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL
WAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 250 MILES EAST
OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS COULD BE DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER WILL INVESTIGATE
THE SYSTEM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON TO CONFIRM IF A DEPRESSION HAS
FORMED. WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS...AND ALL INTERESTS IN THAT AREA SHOULD BE READY
TO TAKE QUICK ACTION...IF NECESSARY. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

Looks like the inevitable is coming soon....we've got TD 6 in a couple hours.

[Blown Away]

I remember that early in the week a few predicted that this invest wouldn't develope, other said it will but after crossing the Caribbean. !I love the tropics!.

Good point!
Time will tell, but most of the pro's were saying yesterday that development would likely occur when 94L makes it towards the W Caribbean. We might see a TD east of 60W.

[bvigal]

OK, I will admit to being one who didn't think much of this wave's possibilities a few days ago. As for chance to turn, models vs climatology, etc. I have some good news for the 'Mach2 hair on fire' folks. (though I still think not a chance of U.S. strike from this cyclone) Below is map I did from NOAA's history database, http://maps.csc.noaa.gov/hurricanes/index.htm

I entered the 12z BAMD coordinate for 11.9N 60.5W and asked for all storms since 1950 passing within 65 n.miles. What a shocker! Includes Charley 2004 and Dennis 2005 (I knew it included Ivan). I will shut up now.

[Coredesat]

A STDS does not indicate something is forming. That product only indicates that something either might be forming, or that it hasn't formed but is still going to affect land. They'll issue a tropical cyclone update if recon finds that this is a TD and watches and/or warnings are issued.

[miamicanes177]

A difference of opinion between the Pro's, I like it. ...

What different forecasts are you seeing? Any of the pros here see a track other than to about 270-280 degrees through 3-4 days? 280 degrees would be Belize, by the way.

The tropics are never set in stone. If 94L performed as you said it would, we'd be looking at an invest still on Sunday. This will likely be at least a tropical depression today, and a tropical storm saturday. Nobody knows where this is going. Just when everyone thinks the track is locked into place, it will change. We'll have a better idea after the weekend on where it is headed. Let's give it a few days and let it work itself out.

[GeneratorPower]

Yeah, but that doesn't take into account the ridge of cosmic proportions blanketing the entire northern hemisphere.

See Joan and Irene?

Landfall cancel.

[bvigal]

Hey Generator, I'm with you!!
edit - 'landfall cancel' didn't read that (wasn't there). you mean U.S. landfall, right?

[skysummit]

:uarrow: Yeah, but that doesn't take into account the ridge of cosmic proportions blanketing the entire northern hemisphere.

See Joan and Irene?

Landfall cancel.

A Central American landfall is NOT "Landfall cancel".

[skysummit]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 311519
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT FRI AUG 31 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD BE FORMING A LITTLE MORE THAN 200 MILES EAST OF
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. AN AIR FORCE PLANE IS GETTING READY TO
INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM AND DETERMINE IF A TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS
FORMED. WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE PROMPTLY REQUIRED FOR A
PORTION OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...AND ALL INTERESTS IN THAT AREA
SHOULD BE READY TO TAKE QUICK ACTION. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY SQUALLS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 215 MILES SOUTH OF
NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO
BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT REACHES COOLER WATERS. THIS
SYSTEM COULD ALSO STRENGTHEN AS A NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES NEAR OR OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES.

A NEARLY STATIONARY AND RATHER STRONG NON-TROPICAL LOW HAS DEVELOPED
ABOUT 700 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND. THIS
SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO ACQUIRE SOME TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER AVILA/BLAKE

[dtrain44]

I agree that it doesn't necessarily mean that something is forming - but all other evidence indicates that and the NHC statements have become more bullish on the low over the last 24 hours. The disturbance statement simply indicates concern and that the recon flight is on its way. Unless the recon is very surprising (and we can't rule that out), we should have TD 6 very shortly.

Bvigal's map indicates that climatology isn't necessarily that unfavorable to a westerly/eventual Central American track and the regime in place does seem to lend itself to that sort of track. It is certainly not common to see two storms follow that path in a season, but that seems to be what we have (presuming we do get development).

[Weatherfreak000]

Indeed it appears the pattern this year is all about the Ridging.


A nice defense seems to be set up for the GOM, storms aren't being allowed to sit stationary in the BOC and High Pressure has been dominating the Gulf.


I'm not one to judge and of course don't take this overly seriously, but I think if we go into the Peak of the season with this pattern of High pressure still in place I might be able to look at the rest of the season with "one eye open".


As far as 94L goes, the real challenge will be whether it will survive being dangerously close to the SA Coastline. We could be looking at a 45 MPH TS and nothing more if that happens.

[Blown Away]

A difference of opinion between the Pro's, I like it. ...

What different forecasts are you seeing? Any of the pros here see a track other than to about 270-280 degrees through 3-4 days? 280 degrees would be Belize, by the way.

Your right, the consensus is a general W track. Jeff Master's said he thinks the W track is likely but he noted "If 94L does survive and pass into the Central Caribbean, a more northwesterly turn to threaten Haiti, Jamaica, and Cuba is not out of the question."
The forum is a little more fun when you guys debate w/ each other.

[RL3AO]

[wxman57]

I agree with JMs analysis on the center being closer to 12N-56W from that microwave image. All the heavy convection is on the south side and you can clearly see the curvature centered near 12N. On the future track, depends how fast that trough lifts out east of FL over the next 48 hrs - what I see now is once it makes it to around 60W it will turn W-NW or NW. I'm not sure about all the talk of model consensus - the BAMs, GFDL, & HWHARF are close but where is UKMET, GFS, NOGAPs? The FSU Tropical Model moves the system much more to the NW into southern Cuba in 5 days. As far as 5 days out, I respect what wxman57 and Derek are saying about the building ridge & if that pans out no doubt a CA storm. However, we are starting September tomorrow and mid-latitude upper air patterns have a habit of playing nasty tricks 5-7 days out.

That microwave image doesn't show the center very well, but it's certainly nowhere near 12N. Those latitude markers are every 2 degrees, not every degree. As for the GFS, it's track is slightly south of west toward southern Honduras (I'm plotting surface pressure in 0.5mb increments to see it). NOGAPS has it moving into Nicaragua Monday night. Canadian says Nicaragua on Tuesday. I don't have any UKMET data feed here, but I suspect it's in agreement with all the other global models. So if the FSU is saying southern Cuba, then it's all alone in that forecast. Where are you seeing the FSU track? It's not made public.

Read Jeff Masters' blog more carefully, he's not predicting it to move toward Jamaica, he's saying:

"If 94L does survive and pass into the Central Caribbean, a more northwesterly turn to threaten Haiti, Jamaica, and Cuba is not out of the question."

Before that he talks about it skirting the coast of SA and hitting Nicaragua. But IF it was to track into the central Caribbean, something none of the models is forecasting, THEN it could become a threat to Jamaica.

[bvigal]

Well I have a question for the storm veterans. Some of us were discussing this right when Dean came by. A lot of people down here seem to think there is a phenomena where one storm goes by and then another comes along soon in nearly the same track. I know, a big one is supposed to cool the waters, etc., but talk to folks here about Luis and Marilyn, for example!