CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[wx247]

The NHC Floater loop says that the eastern edge of Dominican Republic had a wind gust of 85 mph... is this an error?

[vacanechaser]

To me its looking more and more that dean will miss the nhc forecast points to the north...anyone agree?

I was JUST thinking that. I think the worst weather can stay JUST off the NORTHERN coast of Jamaica!

Currently the storm is a hair to the right of the NHC track, but it could just be a temporary wobble.

agree... not much but a little... may not mean much at all..


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[opera ghost]

Ok, so if it goes into Mexico or the Brownsville area like the models are saying, what are the effects going to be like in the Houston area? I have never been through a hurricane before... would like to know somewhat to expect.... so i can prepare now....

If it clips that far south, at the very worst we might get a stray rainstorm or two. More likely we'll have sunshine and a normal day.

[Aquawind]

Jamaica is next for eyewall impact. However I think Dean will sidestep,jog,wobble along the shoreline north or south and not go directly over the mountainous island as forecast. That could alter the path but not by much..seems the ridge has control until much later in the period either way. Now if Dean outright misses Jamaica to the north unlike the models that could be a sign the ridge is weaker and it could be a sign it will move further north into the GOM imo.

[mnjb28]

Ive always heard that when an hurricanes cloudtops is elongated in a direction thats where it wants to go?

[tolakram]

Very clear eye now.



Dvorak still shows some of the inner eyewall:



Looks north again, they must be expecting it to move more west than north as it approaches the islands.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Ok, so if it goes into Mexico or the Brownsville area like the models are saying, what are the effects going to be like in the Houston area? I have never been through a hurricane before... would like to know somewhat to expect.... so i can prepare now....

That depends on the size and landfalling strength of the storm. My best guess would be that it might be a little breezier than normal with an increased risk of showers and storms coming off the GOM for a day or two. Hurricane Allen, a pretty large storm, produced a few gusts to near 40mph in the Houston area when it hit just north of Brownsville as a Cat. 3 storm in 1980. If Dean is similar, then we might see the same. This is just a very early guess though. If Dean were to go further south, then we might not see much at all, and if he were to go further north, then we might see TS force (or even hurricane force..if far enough north) winds. By Monday we should know a lot more.

[CronkPSU]

Ive always heard that when an hurricanes cloudtops is elongated in a direction thats where it wants to go?

i believe that is true, then again, there is something stopping it

[tolakram]

History:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2007/gr ... p_5W.shtml

They've moved the track north as of late without much notice. I'm becoming convinced this thing is going north of the current track, but we'll see. I've been pretty much exactly wrong before.

[lamsalfl]

Notice the models in the Jamaica area. They all take the storm on the southern side of the island. The eye may graze the northern coast, sparing Jamaica the worst. If this is the case, then all of the models will have been off target for the path less than 24 hours out.

It's still early.

[windstorm99]

Dean is right on his forcast track...Go to the SSD page and run a visible loop and tropical forcast points and you will see so far the NHC has done a perfect forcast.Adrian

[tolakram]

Dean is right on his forcast track...Go to the SSD page and run a visible loop and tropical forcast points and you will see so far the NHC has done a perfect forcast.Adrian

Keep in mind that they update those points every few hours.

Check out the history I posted in the models thread, you can see the most recent northward shift they made.

[HeeBGBz]

Dean is right on his forcast track...Go to the SSD page and run a visible loop and tropical forcast points and you will see so far the NHC has done a perfect forcast.Adrian

I thought that Dean was tracking north of the NHC all day?

[windstorm99]

Dean is right on his forcast track...Go to the SSD page and run a visible loop and tropical forcast points and you will see so far the NHC has done a perfect forcast.Adrian

Keep in mind that they update those points every few hours.

Check out the history I posted in the models thread, you can see the most recent northward shift they made.

Again remember hurricanes do not travel in a straight line and most of the time they wobble up and down but the general trend to me is right on line with the current NHC forcast track.

[swimaster20]

Before they updated the points, though, Dean was north of them.

[mnjb28]

I sure hope it dosent fell a weekness from that ull. That would worst case,but im still with NHC as of now exept the direct hit on jamica.

[jhamps10]

History:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2007/gr ... p_5W.shtml

They've moved the track north as of late without much notice. I'm becoming convinced this thing is going north of the current track, but we'll see. I've been pretty much exactly wrong before.

I see your point there tolakram. Also notice as we go along over the past 3 days it has gone from South tip of Jamaica, to now dead center if not the north-central part of the island. I'm agreeing with ya that it's going north of forecast points.

[HURAKAN]

Crossing 70ºW.

[jrod]

I sure hope it dosent fell a weekness from that ull. That would worst case,but im still with NHC as of now exept the direct hit on jamica.

why would that be worse case?

[Houstonia]

Jamaica is next for eyewall impact. However I think Dean will sidestep,jog,wobble along the shoreline north or south and not go directly over the mountainous island as forecast. That could alter the path but not by much..seems the ridge has control until much later in the period either way. Now if Dean outright misses Jamaica to the north unlike the models that could be a sign the ridge is weaker and it could be a sign it will move further north into the GOM imo.

does anyone have a link to Jamaica radio? I think we had one posted years ago on one of the forums.. thanks.