INVEST 91L -Discussions,Analysis and Imagery

[srainhoutx]

Thanks AFM. Got to take the dogs to vet tomorrow myself.

[Yankeegirl]

Sheesh.... I work at a vet... I am always at the vet!!! So whats the word, if the center is more to the north is the track going to be more to the north?

[Extremeweatherguy]

A nice visible loop before the sun sets...

http://adds.aviationweather.gov/satelli ... &itype=vis

...If the center relocates under that blob overnight, then we may wake up to a whole new ball game tomorrow.

[Derek Ortt]

reminds me of Claudette when it was forming in the Carib... beautiful sat appearance but nothing at the surface. This one has me baffled

[Sean in New Orleans]

A nice visible loop before the sun sets...

http://adds.aviationweather.gov/satelli ... &itype=vis

...If the center relocates under that blob overnight, then we may wake up to a whole new ball game tomorrow.

Thanks that is a nice looking satellite view....

[Air Force Met]

Local media in Houston are very concerned over a developing system. Dr. Neil Frank of KHOU and former Hurricane Center Director says that watches/warnings may be posted while we sleep and wake up and have no time to prepare. I'm just expecting a lot of rain. I don't see what the big deal is.

Some of the EOM officials are a little upset at the NHC that they did not pull the trigger at 4 pm for that very reason. I is certainly going to develop and it certainly is a closed low. Chances are there are winds out there somewhere not sampled by the aircraft that are around 30 mph. TD's that don't have a well defined center are upgraded all the time. There are plenty of gyres in the GoM that don't have a VORTEX message sent out.

[Air Force Met]

Sheesh.... I work at a vet... I am always at the vet!!! So whats the word, if the center is more to the north is the track going to be more to the north?

Yes....if the center reforms 100 miles to the north...move all those forecast tracks north 100 miles.

[Sean in New Orleans]

Local media in Houston are very concerned over a developing system. Dr. Neil Frank of KHOU and former Hurricane Center Director says that watches/warnings may be posted while we sleep and wake up and have no time to prepare. I'm just expecting a lot of rain. I don't see what the big deal is.

Some of the EOM officials are a little upset at the NHC that they did not pull the trigger at 4 pm for that very reason. I is certainly going to develop and it certainly is a closed low. Chances are there are winds out there somewhere not sampled by the aircraft that are around 30 mph. TD's that don't have a well defined center are upgraded all the time. There are plenty of gyres in the GoM that don't have a VORTEX message sent out.

The gulf is of serious concern, IMO. I see no reason why the system will not become a hurricane before making landfall close to Galveston.

[Ed Mahmoud]

New GFDL (text only) initializes Tropical Disturbance 91L at 22.9ºN & 90.1ºW. It reaches the coast in 36 hours at 25.5º & 96.8º
I believe the center is reforming, based by staring intently with non-met trained eyes, around 24º, maybe even 24.5º

So, if all else were assumed to be correct, then landfall would be about 1.5º North of 25.5º, or around 27º. or near where Bret made landfall.


Just an assumption.

[Bailey1777]

AirForceMet if you had to put a cone on this one what would it be.

[ROCK]

Sheesh.... I work at a vet... I am always at the vet!!! So whats the word, if the center is more to the north is the track going to be more to the north?

Yes....if the center reforms 100 miles to the north...move all those forecast tracks north 100 miles.

AFM- good job in predicting the center reformation last night........yes I am sucking up.....

[mgpetre]

AirForceMet if you had to put a cone on this one what would it be.

Yes a cone of uncertainty by a pro would prepare a lot of us better. It's going to be a short haul to the coast, can you help us be prepared if we need to be?

[ROCK]

Local media in Houston are very concerned over a developing system. Dr. Neil Frank of KHOU and former Hurricane Center Director says that watches/warnings may be posted while we sleep and wake up and have no time to prepare. I'm just expecting a lot of rain. I don't see what the big deal is.

Some of the EOM officials are a little upset at the NHC that they did not pull the trigger at 4 pm for that very reason. I is certainly going to develop and it certainly is a closed low. Chances are there are winds out there somewhere not sampled by the aircraft that are around 30 mph. TD's that don't have a well defined center are upgraded all the time. There are plenty of gyres in the GoM that don't have a VORTEX message sent out.

The gulf is of serious concern, IMO. I see no reason why the system will not become a hurricane before making landfall close to Galveston.

Galveston? I was thinking more closer to Matagorda and points south. On intensity I think you could be right. Funny, only Dr Frank is the only local MET concerned......I have told my inlaws to move there beach house stuff inside. They live near Freeport....

[Air Force Met]

AirForceMet if you had to put a cone on this one what would it be.

Depending on how far the center tucks under the convection...b/w CRP and Port O'Conner is my guess....but closer to CRP.

[RL3AO]

Coming back for another pass.

[pojo]

Coming back for another pass.

we have time fixes that we need to hit... thus the reason for another pass.

[A1A]

A nice visible loop before the sun sets...

http://adds.aviationweather.gov/satelli ... &itype=vis

...If the center relocates under that blob overnight, then we may wake up to a whole new ball game tomorrow.

Thanks that is a nice looking satellite view....

That's neat - you can see the lower level clouds turning counter clockwise and the upper level turning clockwise!

[Normandy]

A1A, thats a sign of really good upper air support....building anti-cyclone over a developing cyclone.

[MiamiensisWx]

I think an STDS (and an upgrade to TD) is warranted withn the next 30 minutes. I believe there is sufficient proof for a possible TD. Grace lacked the evidence, but it was upgraded. I hope a risky precedent isn't being set here - people should be aware of the situation. If Air Force Met's statement about EOM people is correct, I think the TPC should "play it safe" and give this system the classification it deserves - warnings and watches should be issued soon for the TX coast.

[KatDaddy]

Yep. That aint good at all No really. Its not good You can see the feederbands developing. This is go very quick with the upper air support.