Invest 94L,Near Windwards-Discussions

[skysummit]

Well, the stupid GFS still isn't even showing anything. I guess its' batteries ran out on Dean.

[Coredesat]

:uarrow: Yeah, but that doesn't take into account the ridge of cosmic proportions blanketing the entire northern hemisphere.

See Joan and Irene?

Landfall cancel.

What ridge? I don't see a ridge. If the system remains weak steering currents will take it more northwest. And also, please refer to someone else's comment about your "landfall cancel" remark. It is incredibly offensive toward those who live in the islands. Why are you comparing a system about to pass over the Windward Islands to a system that recurved between Bermuda and the US East Coast?

[Furious George]

A difference of opinion between the Pro's, I like it. ...

What different forecasts are you seeing? Any of the pros here see a track other than to about 270-280 degrees through 3-4 days? 280 degrees would be Belize, by the way.

The tropics are never set in stone. If 94L performed as you said it would, we'd be looking at an invest still on Sunday. This will likely be at least a tropical depression today, and a tropical storm saturday. Nobody knows where this is going. Just when everyone thinks the track is locked into place, it will change. We'll have a better idea after the weekend on where it is headed. Let's give it a few days and let it work itself out.

Sorry, but pro mets don't get paid to 'give it a few days and let it work itself out'. The fact is, there is a lot of data available now to make an educated forecast. And with good model consensus, the track error may not be that large. If anything, it is good for countries like Belize/Nic to know that a storm has a good chance of heading their direction. They need to start thinking ahead now and not let things 'work itself out' - anything else would be unfair to them.

[ronjon]

I agree with JMs analysis on the center being closer to 12N-56W from that microwave image. All the heavy convection is on the south side and you can clearly see the curvature centered near 12N. On the future track, depends how fast that trough lifts out east of FL over the next 48 hrs - what I see now is once it makes it to around 60W it will turn W-NW or NW. I'm not sure about all the talk of model consensus - the BAMs, GFDL, & HWHARF are close but where is UKMET, GFS, NOGAPs? The FSU Tropical Model moves the system much more to the NW into southern Cuba in 5 days. As far as 5 days out, I respect what wxman57 and Derek are saying about the building ridge & if that pans out no doubt a CA storm. However, we are starting September tomorrow and mid-latitude upper air patterns have a habit of playing nasty tricks 5-7 days out.

That microwave image doesn't show the center very well, but it's certainly nowhere near 12N. Those latitude markers are every 2 degrees, not every degree. As for the GFS, it's track is slightly south of west toward southern Honduras (I'm plotting surface pressure in 0.5mb increments to see it). NOGAPS has it moving into Nicaragua Monday night. Canadian says Nicaragua on Tuesday. I don't have any UKMET data feed here, but I suspect it's in agreement with all the other global models. So if the FSU is saying southern Cuba, then it's all alone in that forecast. Where are you seeing the FSU track? It's not made public.

Read Jeff Masters' blog more carefully, he's not predicting it to move toward Jamaica, he's saying:

"If 94L does survive and pass into the Central Caribbean, a more northwesterly turn to threaten Haiti, Jamaica, and Cuba is not out of the question."

Before that he talks about it skirting the coast of SA and hitting Nicaragua. But IF it was to track into the central Caribbean, something none of the models is forecasting, THEN it could become a threat to Jamaica.

wxman57 - I'm talking about FSU's MM5 mesoscale tropical model (link below). As far as GFS, UKMET, NOGAPs, and 06Z GFDL, they don't even develop the storm. And as far as I can tell, the HWRF dissolves a weak system over SW Haiti.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2.cgi?time=2007083106-invest94l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2007083106-invest94l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/mm5fsu45atc2.cgi?time=2007083100&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[Blown Away]

The models seemed to move a little N through the Caribbean. The GFS moves 94L alot slower, then a little WNW through the islands, and disipates it, I think.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200794_model.html

[miamicanes177]

link above

[KWT]

I think a track very much like the wave that was 97L is quite possible in terms of a longer term track with 94L, the set-up looks very similar as you'd expect given no major changes have occured. I think a track close to Edith until the NW turn Edith took, tohugh hopefully it doesn't get as strong!

[CrazyC83]

QuikSCAT again missed the system. I'm not 100% convinced at this point it is a TD (96L is more likely to be a TD right now IMO).

[fci]

Well stating the obvious; this will be a TD by 5:00 if not in an earlier Special Statement.

And based on what looks like a consensus from our Pro Mets, Central America gets smacked again from whatever this develops into.

It's a "low rider" season (makes me think of the song....)

[tolakram]

New convection firing near what appears to be the center. Impressive looking, at this moment anyway.

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... ive_0.html

[storms in NC]

In this Vloop you can see a slight pull to the north. not really a big deal here but you can see it. So I would guess the jogs start in play here.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

[HURAKAN]

Is looking quite impressive in the loops, and I wouldn't be surprised if the RECON finds a weak tropical storm in 94L.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/sloop-vis.html

[storms in NC]

Is looking quite impressive in the loops, and I wouldn't be surprised if the RECON finds a weak tropical storm in 94L.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/sloop-vis.html

One thing you can say for sure is that it is growning.

[miamicanes177]

6th tropical depression of the 2007 season has formed according to Accuweather Meteorologists

[DESTRUCTION5]

Screw up!!

[RL3AO]

Lol. 988mb? One heck of a depression.

[AtlanticWind]

6th tropical depression of the 2007 season has formed according to Accuweather Meteorologists

988 mb What????

[fci]

Interesting that Accuweather is now christening systems.
Think they will name the system Felix before it is actually Felix

[miamicanes177]

[DESTRUCTION5]

OK now this is a joke right?