Invest 99L:Off E Coast-Discussions

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

one thing for sure, I think the threat of a STRONG hurricane is steadily diminishing since
this is taking longer to get going. Not to mention the fact that the conditions aren't anywhere as good as they were for Dean or Felix. I do think that a weak hurricane can still get going
however....

Who said this will become a Dean or Felix? The tchp is not as high and the enviroment will not be as favorable.That is just a fact of life...In for one the enviroment is becoming more favorable right now,,,in should slowly become more as the high builds north of the system. I think cat2 or 85-90 knots for a peak...It was not supposed to do anything big tonight any ways.

[dwg71]

This is very very rare, some people think a well defined LLC with convection over it, does not deserve upgrading. That is something you don't see to often.

Sometimes I feel the folks at NHC believe a system must be under less than 5kts of shear and have at least a 60% chance of becoming a category 5 hurricane within 36 hours before they'll declare it a tropical depression. This is why so many times NHC will start advisories when a system is already a strong tropical storm. Ideally, advisories would start when it is a weak tropical depression. We have to remember a tropical depression does not need to have the organization of a category 5 hurricane. It's ok if convection is displaced and it does not have under 5kts of shear over it.

I feel the NHC is the best at what they do and they are the ones that make the final call, every season you have a few questionable systems that teeter back and forth. Why the rush to upgrade? Its not warranted at this time, IMO.

[Frank2]

That's right - it'll look like a tight swirl for a time, then, it'll be gone (perhaps an eddy more than anything)...

[Sanibel]

I think it is transitioning to tropical since a new burst is happening closer to the LLC. ENE drift out to sea or loop.

[ConvergenceZone]

one thing for sure, I think the threat of a STRONG hurricane is steadily diminishing since
this is taking longer to get going. Not to mention the fact that the conditions aren't anywhere as good as they were for Dean or Felix. I do think that a weak hurricane can still get going
however....

Who said this will become a Dean or Felix? The tchp is not as high and the enviroment will not be as favorable.That is just a fact of life...In for one the enviroment is becoming more favorable right now,,,in should slowly become more as the high builds north of the system. I think cat2 or 85-90 knots for a peak...It was not supposed to do anything big tonight any ways.

according to some of the EARLIER models this suppose to have been a monster, remember?

[KWT]

Well if you look at the facts you've got FSU phase charts showin git as warm cored, you've got Quikscat showing 25-30kts and a closed LLC, you've got Dvorak estimates ranging between 1.5-2.0 and an obvious closed LLC on the Sat.images as well...bar recon you relaly can't get any more evidence of a system being a tropical depression then that.
i think the NHC are just waiting for recon to confirm everything, given its got an obvious closed LLC, even if it is broad recon probably will find what is required base don all the other data we have currently. The NHC are just covering their behinds just in case recon goes in and doesn't find enough conclusive data.

[cpdaman]

one thing for sure, I think the threat of a STRONG hurricane is steadily diminishing since
this is taking longer to get going. Not to mention the fact that the conditions aren't anywhere as good as they were for Dean or Felix. I do think that a weak hurricane can still get going
however....

patience is the key , and as derrick's block stated yesterday slow development thru 24-48 hours then its a shoe-in CANE and a viable threat to the east coast from the carolina's to cape cod.

and it is becoming better organized and i do think it will be upgraded ...to what ...that is the question i have would they call it a tropcial depression / or storm gabby since it is supposed to make the transition anyway and they don't want people to let their guard down by calling it subtropical

[BensonTCwatcher]

The trough is still there, but's weakening. The circ. center is now at the NE end of the trough and pulling away. As Derek noted the southerly winds are showing up in cloud and WV motion. You can see the high building over it as forecast. The timing is slow as forecast also. We might see an upgrade today, tonight or even tomorrow night. The changes of "poof" are what is decreasing, the upper air conditions are improving SLOWLY. http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

[Blown Away]

99L w/ all the convection to the E side is the opposite of former 98L which had all the convection on the W side.

[tolakram]

I still don't understand the unsubstantiated 'this is nothing or won't amount to much' posts. Everyone said it would develop slowly, the pro mets are all bullish on development, and we have the data to support their position. Good Grief!

I guess I should expect to have to wade though a bunch of I disagree with the NHC if they do upgrade it too.

[cycloneye]

We should respect all the opinions one way or another.It is not in the best interest of the forum to have only one side of the story,so to speak.To have great discussions (Without attacks and Bickering among the members),there has to be 2 sides,not only one viewpoint.

[dtrain44]

I certainly agree with those defending the NHC here. Why rush to upgrade to T.D. 7 when a recon flight is going to be in the storm a few hours later? There's no significant advantage to calling this a TD six hours earlier, especially when most people don't really pay attention until a system is a bigger, nastier, and clearer threat. Tropics-watchers have known about 99L for a while and the general public probably won't pay attention until (if?) we have a strengthening Gabrielle.....

There is very strong evidence that this system is developing/will develop, but we shouldn't jump on the NHC for not jumping ahead of the curve when definitive evidence could come from the recon flight, especially when the debate is between invest or TD status. I don't think anyone thinks we've got a 50 KT tropical storm out there now......

[ronjon]

Water temps plenty warm for development - looks to be a hot spot around 30N-75W.

[dwg71]

I still don't understand the unsubstantiated 'this is nothing or won't amount to much' posts. Everyone said it would develop slowly, the pro mets are all bullish on development, and we have the data to support their position. Good Grief!

I guess I should expect to have to wade though a bunch of I disagree with the NHC if they do upgrade it too.

Haven't seen any posts that say that, but a few that say the NHC will upgrade when its warranted, and only when its warranted. Let's all take a deep breathe and wait and see what happens.

[Lowpressure]

I still don't understand the unsubstantiated 'this is nothing or won't amount to much' posts. Everyone said it would develop slowly, the pro mets are all bullish on development, and we have the data to support their position. Good Grief!

I guess I should expect to have to wade though a bunch of I disagree with the NHC if they do upgrade it too.

Part of the problem may be that some have been spoiled with Dean/Felix. Felix took a while to get going, but when he did, it was historical. Two major, long traking systems that actually were quite similar in many aspects.
This is very different, but not uncommon at all. Systems are different and develop their own way. This system is quite common for where it is and what it is doing climatology speaking. It will develop and most likely threaten the coast.

[Chacor]

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRES LOCATED ABOUT 350 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA NEAR 29N71W...ANALYZED 1008 MB...HAS
GENERALLY CHANGED LITTLE IN STRUCTURE TODAY. VISIBLE IMAGES SHOW
AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER WITH MOST OF THE SHOWER AND TSTMS
ACTIVITY STRETCHED OUT TO THE NE OF THE LOW FROM 29N-32N BETWEEN
68W-71W AND ALONG THE TRAILING TROUGH AXIS. A NEW BURST OF
CONVECTION HAS FORMED NEAR THE CENTER. A QSCAT PASS AROUND 11Z
DEPICTED STRONG WINDS TO THE E OF THE CIRCULATION ALTHOUGH
SEVERAL OF THE WIND BARBS WHERE RAIN FLAGGED...HOWEVER IT IS
LIKELY THAT NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OCCURRING AS THERE IS
SEVERAL 20-25 KT UNCONTAMINATED VECTORS. THIS LOW HAS BEEN
MOVING SLOWLY EWD OR JUST S OF E OVER THE PAST 24-48 HOURS BUT
LITTLE MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS EN ROUTE TO
INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON. STAY TUNED.

[Derek Ortt]

this is NOT taking longer to develop than expected

Most need to be far more patient with these systems. Still looking for a strong hurricane out of this. This is going EXACTLY AS EXPECTED

[MGC]

This genesis of this system is unlike Dean and Felix. Dean and Felix both developed from tropical waves deep in the tropics. 99L actually formed over land and drifted off shore as a non tropical low. It takes a while for a non tropical low to acquire tropical characteristics. It appears this transistion is underway and 99L should become a TC in the next day or so. This TC should be much more challenging both track wise and intensity wise as the stearing currents are not as clear as they were with previous TC's this season. I'd say there is a 75% chance that the EC will be threatened and a lesser chance that it will be a fish. Lets hope for the latter......MGC

[artist]

This is very very rare, some people think a well defined LLC with convection over it, does not deserve upgrading. That is something you don't see to often.

Matt - you are absolutely right! It is very unusual!

[CrazyC83]

It is probably a TD at least with the closed circulation being found. Now waiting for 07L.NONAME.