TD INGRID: Discussions & Images - Last Advisory

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Seems to be moving west-northwestward now. Also the LLC appears to becoming much better defined and located at near 12.5 north/43 west. This system looks like a storm to me or very strong depression.

[Derek Ortt]

Matt,

you are overstating the intensity of this

Also, I fail to see where the center is yet becoming much better defined. Still looks to be multiple . It is better than 24 hours ago, but still has a long way to go before becoming a TD. Also, the convection needs to persist through the night... and it's not doing the best of jobs likely due to the easterly shear

[boca]

Steve Weagle local met in West Palm said 91L will most likely be a fish on its currect track. It will be interesting to see the synoptic set up next week for the CONUS.

[Vortex]

GFS thru H-156 moves it at a snails pace but keeps enough ridging to the north to keep it moving generally west..Also, massive ridge across the western atlantic and eastern seaboard in th5-8 day range]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_156l.gif

[Vortex]

If there is a storm near the bahamas in 8-10 days this would be a horrible set-up for Florida..

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_252l.gif

[Vortex]

recent Quikscat confirms fairly well-defined LLC...TD at 5am and storm at 11am...


http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBds26.png

[LarryWx]

If there is a storm near the bahamas in 8-10 days this would be a horrible set-up for Florida..

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_252l.gif

GFS thru H-156 moves it at a snails pace but keeps enough ridging to the north to keep it moving generally west..Also, massive ridge across the western atlantic and eastern seaboard in th5-8 day range]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_156l.gif

This run is actually bringing a sfc trough of low pressure WNW or NWbound into the SE US at ~216 hours. This gives us an idea of the potential influence from the tropics then.

Also, I was able to track 91-L into the Fl peninsula, but not until hour 384!

[AJC3]

GFS thru H-156 moves it at a snails pace but keeps enough ridging to the north to keep it moving generally west..Also, massive ridge across the western atlantic and eastern seaboard in th5-8 day range]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_156l.gif

If there is a storm near the bahamas in 8-10 days this would be a horrible set-up for Florida.

[speculation mode]
Actually, if it evolved as forecast (a BIG if as you well know) it would probably not be bad for Florida, and could actually be worse for points father north along the eastern U.S. coast. That "massive" ridge that the GFS shows is shallow. In fact, the GFS shows a very pronounced h50 weakness developing between 65W and 80W staring at H120 (day 5). The base of the developing trough over the western Atlantic cuts off into a h50 low and drops southward to a position offshore Florida through H168 (day 7), and then very slowly retrogrades westward across Florida from days 7 through 10. A TC in the vicinity of the GA would no doubt feel such a deep layer weakness and most likely turn northward.
[/speculation mode]

It should be noted that the GFS has shown rather poor consistency with this feature...however this solution does have some strong support from the 12Z ECM. We'll see if this feature evolves as forecast.

[SoonerMaximus]

Just watched Accuweather's Pro Met, Henry Margusity's vlog from earlier today, and he drew a line straight to the Yucatan P for this system. Aren't there a few unknowns this far out?

However, I do appreciate the fact that he has the guts to put his name on the line and make a prediction that far out.

It's pretty far in the video, around the two minute remaining mark.
http://www.accuweather.com/news-blogs.asp?partner=accuweather&traveler=0&blog=meteomadness

[Coredesat]

More than a few. He likely took one look at the CIMSS steering layer product and jumped to a conclusion. Too early to tell, though steering does seem to favor a W to WNW motion for now.

There is a low trough over the SE US that could have some impact on steering currents, however.

[jlauderdal]

Steve Weagle local met in West Palm said 91L will most likely be a fish on its currect track. It will be interesting to see the synoptic set up next week for the CONUS.

jlauderdal a local in FLL says 91L will most likely be a who knows what yet on its currect track. It will be interesting to see the synoptic set up next week for the CONUS.

['CaneFreak]

recent Quikscat confirms fairly well-defined LLC...TD at 5am and storm at 11am...


http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBds26.png

I hope you are kidding. That image you show does not show a well defined circulation. As a matter of fact, it is still as elongated as it was earlier today. There are no winds on your image that are above 25 mph or so. If there are, they are rain contaminated and can not be counted. There will not be an upgrade for some time. I agree with Derek ortt on this one. You can see multiple vorticies swirling in this thing and it is going to have a tough time developing in 24 hours. I dont expect convection to increase again until diurnal max again later tomorrow. I give it about a 30 % chance to form on Wednesday and a 70 % chance by Thursday as shear will have dropped well below the thresholds for a TC.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

There appears to be a broad LLC with a well defined LLC and a MLC. The main one with quickscat support is at near 12.8 north/44 west...It appears to be moving west-northwest. The MLC is also trying to pull the convection...So we will see if the LLC can strengthen enough to pull the system together.

Derek, yeah maybe I jump the gun. Hey some one has to do it. I'm sorry, I respect you alot.

['CaneFreak]

There appears to be a broad LLC with a well defined LLC and a MLC. The main one with quickscat support is at near 12.8 north/44 west...It appears to be moving west-northwest. The MLC is also trying to pull the convection...So we will see if the LLC can strengthen enough to pull the system together.

Derek, yeah maybe I jump the gun. Hey some one has to do it. I'm sorry, I respect you alot.

There you go. Now you see it!!!! Oh the connections you can make late at night. Glad you see it now!!! You know its funny because that image Vortex posted further up the page depicts that beautifully if you look at it carefully. You will see several isotachs/vectors turning on one another within the main broad LLC.

[deltadog03]

While this is not there yet!! I do see a much better structured system than earlier. I still think ** if it continues to organize** to be a TD by 5p today!

[Normandy]

There appears to be a broad LLC with a well defined LLC and a MLC. The main one with quickscat support is at near 12.8 north/44 west...It appears to be moving west-northwest. The MLC is also trying to pull the convection...So we will see if the LLC can strengthen enough to pull the system together.

Derek, yeah maybe I jump the gun. Hey some one has to do it. I'm sorry, I respect you alot.

There you go. Now you see it!!!! Oh the connections you can make late at night. Glad you see it now!!! You know its funny because that image Vortex posted further up the page depicts that beautifully if you look at it carefully. You will see several isotachs/vectors turning on one another within the main broad LLC.

Its elongation isnt the MAIN problem, its the proximity to the other low. You'll notice they are within 500 miles of each other and both are pretty broad....One is going to have to either A) Establish dominance or B) move farther apart. I think 91L should win this battle because it has good upper level divergence and is producing convection.

Track is pretty straightforward IMO. Should pull a little NW for the next 12 hours and from that point on it will encounter nice ridging that should push it W or WNW. This is a big threat for the islands IMO (More northern islands).

[Vortex]

00Z 9/12 canadian has trended west and now places the TC in the NE carribean on monday around 8pm...


http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/mod ... dd_100.gif

[wxmann_91]

GFS thru H-156 moves it at a snails pace but keeps enough ridging to the north to keep it moving generally west..Also, massive ridge across the western atlantic and eastern seaboard in th5-8 day range]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_156l.gif

remember, steering is at 500 not at sfc...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_156l.gif

That's a fish setup.

[Vortex]

Animated look at the Canadian..in fact moves wsw at the end of the period..


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2007091200&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation



*edited by sg to add the URL tags

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

There appears to be a broad LLC with a well defined LLC and a MLC. The main one with quickscat support is at near 12.8 north/44 west...It appears to be moving west-northwest. The MLC is also trying to pull the convection...So we will see if the LLC can strengthen enough to pull the system together.

Derek, yeah maybe I jump the gun. Hey some one has to do it. I'm sorry, I respect you alot.

There you go. Now you see it!!!! Oh the connections you can make late at night. Glad you see it now!!! You know its funny because that image Vortex posted further up the page depicts that beautifully if you look at it carefully. You will see several isotachs/vectors turning on one another within the main broad LLC.

Sure I see it, but smaller LLC's can form with in the broader LLC. Look at Arlene 2005 south of Cuba for a case study to see what I mean. There is one main LLC "core" system shown which is closed or mostly closed. Yes this has likely more then 2-3 LLC's moving around it. So did Arlene 2005. Also, I was looking at the shear map, and the little discussion, I posted a few post back. In mostly pointing out the Gfs current shear maps that shown the eastlys to the south of the invest around 8-10 north at 12-15 knots...While a area between, being 11-15 north of less then 8 knots. The current shear maps show 8-10 knots over the system from cimss.

Maybe there is some shear forcing dry air into the mid levels. In which is not allowing the system to develop.