CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[miamicanes177]

The 12Z GFDL has Dean running the lenght of Jamica Mon and not losing any intensity. That won't happen......MGC

are you sure? http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/c7/Gilbert_1988_track.png

[dwg71]

Based on latest IR, Dean has turned to the west.

Vacanechaser, the forecast did shift south, or in this case, west (overall to the left):
72HR VT 21/1200Z 21.5N 88.5W
72HR VT 21/1800Z 21.5N 90.0W
1.5 further W

96HR VT 22/1200Z 23.0N 94.0W
96HR VT 22/1800Z 23.0N 96.0W
2.0 further W

correct... however there is no shift southward... the track did not cross the coast further south that before.. he did not change the lat. points... only extended them westward for time past from the 11am to now... so that does not conunt as a southward shift... people were saying how they did not understand how the nhc made the statement about the gfdl and took the storm further south.. just pointing out that it is not further south... no change just an extension..


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

No, it did move the landfall south. Compare the last two NHC forecasts graphics.

[tolakram]

vacanechaser...

I (and I believe others) were saying they changed them AT the 11am advisory, not SINCE the 11am advisory. On that, I'm certain. Shortly before the 11am advisory, I was watching the IR loop with the trop pts, and the next forecast point was at 15.3 and 69.3 - at that time, the eye was only at 68.3 and already at, or slightly past 15.3 moving wnw. When I typed that to my sister, she came back and said it was right on the trop pt. So I opened the same loop in another window, and she was right. They had moved that trop pt. to 68.3'ish and had the eye right over it, giving the appearance that it was right on track with the forecast points.
I understand they were updating them for the 11am advisory... but they were definitely north of the points then.

I don't know if it will make any difference in the long term track, but it could mean a lot to Jamaica and Haiti.

They did this just now at the 5pm update. If you look at the floater loop you'll see the first track point is right where the hurricane is and then they sifted the other forecast points so it STILL hits Jamaica. That's my beef. I'm not concerned with the long term forecast yet, that can wait till Sunday. My concern is the shifting around of the short term forecast to not only match Deans position but still maintain the next forecast point. Maybe this IS the best way to forecast?

[cycloneye]

18 hours

[jlauderdal]

The 12Z GFDL has Dean running the lenght of Jamica Mon and not losing any intensity. That won't happen......MGC

thats within error if it takes that track, the least of the models worry is if intensity is off a bit but if they nail track this far out, they made a few changes to this one and lets see how it holds up on a straightforward forecast/

[cycloneye]

36 hours

SW of Jamaica

[artist]

they were saying that Hurricane Charlie of 1951 was worse than Gilbert for them on their radio station. I looked it up. Killed 154, 50,000 left homeless and Charlie was only 100mph according to the report I read.

[KBBOCA]

Where did Gilbert make it's landfall on N. Amer. mainland after Yucatan?

Dean looks like it could be Gilbert's twin except that Dean is higher intensity at the moment pre-Jamaica.

[wxman57]

I've seen a definite change in direction over the past few hours, but such wobbles are quite common. Earlier today, Dean was moving toward about 288.9 degrees at 16.3 kts. Between 1815Z and 2115Z I measure a distance traveled of 46.3nm toward 282.4 degrees. That's a speed of 15.3 kts. Wobble, wobble, wobble, nothing more. NHC's track looks good. The upper low is kicking out to the west quite rapidly and high pressure is building north of Dean. I wouldn't be surprised if Dean tracks more westerly past the Cayman Islands and goes over a bigger chunk of the Yucatan.

Here's a link with an MPEG file of Hurricane Gilbert back in 1988. Dean is almost exactly on Gilbert's track. Look how Gilbert's core collapsed as it moved over the Yucatan. It regained some strength before hitting northern Mexico, but not nearly as strong as it was before striking the Yucatan:

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/rsad/b1utc/hurricane-movies.html#1988

I certainly feel A LOT better here in Houston today. But you folks on the lower TX coast better continue to prepare as if you'll be hit by a major hurricane, because I don't know of too many 4-day forecasts that were right-on.

[cycloneye]

42 hours

[wxman57]

vacanechaser...

I (and I believe others) were saying they changed them AT the 11am advisory, not SINCE the 11am advisory. On that, I'm certain. Shortly before the 11am advisory, I was watching the IR loop with the trop pts, and the next forecast point was at 15.3 and 69.3 - at that time, the eye was only at 68.3 and already at, or slightly past 15.3 moving wnw. When I typed that to my sister, she came back and said it was right on the trop pt. So I opened the same loop in another window, and she was right. They had moved that trop pt. to 68.3'ish and had the eye right over it, giving the appearance that it was right on track with the forecast points.
I understand they were updating them for the 11am advisory... but they were definitely north of the points then.

I don't know if it will make any difference in the long term track, but it could mean a lot to Jamaica and Haiti.

They did this just now at the 5pm update. If you look at the floater loop you'll see the first track point is right where the hurricane is and then they sifted the other forecast points so it STILL hits Jamaica. That's my beef. I'm not concerned with the long term forecast yet, that can wait till Sunday. My concern is the shifting around of the short term forecast to not only match Deans position but still maintain the next forecast point. Maybe this IS the best way to forecast?

Don't put too much weight on short term motions (6 hours or less). Hurricanes don't move in straight lines, they're constantly changing directions in the short term. Or, I should say, the EYE is wobbling around over the short term. This will give the illusion that the hurricane is changing course. Instead, look at long-term motion to determine forecast accuracy (12 hours to 24 hours). The eye could wobble up to 0.5 degrees one way or the other, but that probably won't change where the hurricane might hit in the long-term because these wobbles average out.

[weatherguru18]

I've seen a definite change in direction over the past few hours, but such wobbles are quite common. Earlier today, Dean was moving toward about 288.9 degrees at 16.3 kts. Between 1815Z and 2115Z I measure a distance traveled of 46.3nm toward 282.4 degrees. That's a speed of 15.3 kts. Wobble, wobble, wobble, nothing more. NHC's track looks good. The upper low is kicking out to the west quite rapidly and high pressure is building north of Dean. I wouldn't be surprised if Dean tracks more westerly past the Cayman Islands and goes over a bigger chunk of the Yucatan.

Here's a link with an MPEG file of Hurricane Gilbert back in 1988. Dean is almost exactly on Gilbert's track. Look how Gilbert's core collapsed as it moved over the Yucatan. It regained some strength before hitting northern Mexico, but not nearly as strong as it was before striking the Yucatan:

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/rsad/b1utc/hurricane-movies.html#1988

I certainly feel A LOT better here in Houston today. But you folks on the lower TX coast better continue to prepare as if you'll be hit by a major hurricane, because I don't know of too many 4-day forecasts that were right-on.

The way things are going...this may be the first one! I mean this is uncanny to say the least.

[KBBOCA]

Crown weather has updated its Jamaica / Cayman links. (Scroll down below the various advisories) Apologies for not making all these links clickable below. You can find them all here: http://www.crownweather.com/tropical.html

Radar Links:
Cuba & Jamaica Radar Mosiac
Cuba Radar Sites

Weather Observations
Jamaica and Cayman Islands Observations

Webcam Links
Jamaica Webcam # 1
Jamaica Webcam # 2
Jamaica Webcam # 3
Grand Cayman Webcam (Thanks Don Loyd @ The Reef Grill)
Cayman Islands Webcam (Ocean Frontiers)
Cayman Islands Webcams

News Media Links
Hurricane Dean Broadcast Coverage From Hurricane City
Hurricane Dean Broadcast Coverage From The Weather Radio Broadcast Network
Nationwide Radio
NewsTalk 93 Jamaica
Love101 FM Radio Jamaica
Power 106 Radio Out Of Jamaica
RadioJamaica.com
The Rooster 101.9 Cayman Country
Jamaica Gleaner News
The Jamaica Observer News

[vacanechaser]

Where did Gilbert make it's landfall on N. Amer. mainland after Yucatan?

Dean looks like it could be Gilbert's twin except that Dean is higher intensity at the moment pre-Jamaica.

it didnt hit the U.S. ... came in south of Brownsville... as a cat 4, 132mph..


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[cpdaman]

i agree bascially with wxman57 i think dean is feeling the ULL now more than it will in the coming days (as the ULL is really flying westward) and the high is building in, i think the movement will turn more due west tomorrow after giving haiti a scare and jamaica a disaster

now tuesday and wednesday i have no idea

[RL3AO]

I've seen a definite change in direction over the past few hours, but such wobbles are quite common. Earlier today, Dean was moving toward about 288.9 degrees at 16.3 kts. Between 1815Z and 2115Z I measure a distance traveled of 46.3nm toward 282.4 degrees. That's a speed of 15.3 kts. Wobble, wobble, wobble, nothing more. NHC's track looks good. The upper low is kicking out to the west quite rapidly and high pressure is building north of Dean. I wouldn't be surprised if Dean tracks more westerly past the Cayman Islands and goes over a bigger chunk of the Yucatan.

Here's a link with an MPEG file of Hurricane Gilbert back in 1988. Dean is almost exactly on Gilbert's track. Look how Gilbert's core collapsed as it moved over the Yucatan. It regained some strength before hitting northern Mexico, but not nearly as strong as it was before striking the Yucatan:

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/rsad/b1utc/hurricane-movies.html#1988

I certainly feel A LOT better here in Houston today. But you folks on the lower TX coast better continue to prepare as if you'll be hit by a major hurricane, because I don't know of too many 4-day forecasts that were right-on.

Very good. Personally, I feel the NHC track might be too far north. (Just by a tad though)

[AL Chili Pepper]

I really don't understand what all the fuss is about a few wobbles here and there. Up until now, the NHC has been VERY consistent with their track and as to now have been very accurate. With the major players - the ULL and the ridge - behaving just as forecasted, I foresee the NHC hitting a home run on this one.

[cycloneye]

54 hours

[southerngale]

vacanechaser...

I (and I believe others) were saying they changed them AT the 11am advisory, not SINCE the 11am advisory. On that, I'm certain. Shortly before the 11am advisory, I was watching the IR loop with the trop pts, and the next forecast point was at 15.3 and 69.3 - at that time, the eye was only at 68.3 and already at, or slightly past 15.3 moving wnw. When I typed that to my sister, she came back and said it was right on the trop pt. So I opened the same loop in another window, and she was right. They had moved that trop pt. to 68.3'ish and had the eye right over it, giving the appearance that it was right on track with the forecast points.
I understand they were updating them for the 11am advisory... but they were definitely north of the points then.

I don't know if it will make any difference in the long term track, but it could mean a lot to Jamaica and Haiti.

They did this just now at the 5pm update. If you look at the floater loop you'll see the first track point is right where the hurricane is and then they sifted the other forecast points so it STILL hits Jamaica. That's my beef. I'm not concerned with the long term forecast yet, that can wait till Sunday. My concern is the shifting around of the short term forecast to not only match Deans position but still maintain the next forecast point. Maybe this IS the best way to forecast?

Don't put too much weight on short term motions (6 hours or less). Hurricanes don't move in straight lines, they're constantly changing directions in the short term. Or, I should say, the EYE is wobbling around over the short term. This will give the illusion that the hurricane is changing course. Instead, look at long-term motion to determine forecast accuracy (12 hours to 24 hours). The eye could wobble up to 0.5 degrees one way or the other, but that probably won't change where the hurricane might hit in the long-term because these wobbles average out.

I understand. Someone said it didn't go north of the forecast points though... I was just pointing out that it did. And I did think it could make a difference for Jamaica and Haiti.

I definitely feel a lot better today than I did yesterday as well. My stomach was in knots yesterday thinking about the possibility of Dean coming this direction. It's been ok today and unless there's some drastic change in the models, I think we'll be fine here.

[KBBOCA]

Where did Gilbert make it's landfall on N. Amer. mainland after Yucatan?

Dean looks like it could be Gilbert's twin except that Dean is higher intensity at the moment pre-Jamaica.

it didnt hit the U.S. ... came in south of Brownsville... as a cat 4, 132mph..

Thanks Jesse. I thought that looked like Glibert hit Mexico, but I couldn't be sure without the State / Country boundaries marked.