CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[HUC]

Hello friens,i'am back,after one day of storm winds,and hurricane gusts in my location;one man reported missing in d=sea,agricultural dammages,some beach erosion,power outages,trees fall down,but nothing when you compare to Martinica,where at this time,2 people are reported dead(one old woman of heart attack),and 6 injuries.
A lot of houses without roof,destruction of banana,and sugar plantations.

And...i can imagine what that will be in the next territories if Dean struck them with it's actual violence.....Al my prayers to a lot of unfortunate people...........

[micktooth]

I don't know if anyone has posted this yet, but the Governer of Louisiana has declared a state of emergency. Think they're scared?

Governor Declares State Of Emergency

August 17, 2007
Media Contact: Mark Smith - Public Information Officer
Phone: 225-276-7177
FAX: 225-925-7501

BATON ROUGE, La. – In anticipation of a potential impact to Louisiana, Governor Kathleen Babineaux Blanco has declared a state of emergency as Hurricane Dean continues its progress across the Caribbean Sea. She has also requested a Presidential Emergency Declaration to ensure Federal assets are available to Louisiana prior to the potential landfall of Dean.

“These declarations are a necessary step that allows the state to move quickly if need be,” Governor Blanco said. “I urge all citizens to be personally prepared, listen to your local officials and monitor your local media as this storm progresses. Please make sure your plans to get to safety should evacuation be in order. Be prepared for the worst and hope for the best.”

The Governor’s Office of Homeland Security and Emergency Preparedness activated its Crisis Action Team (CAT) Thursday to monitor the storm and provide updates to parish, state and federal partners as the storm develops. Saturday morning, GOHSEP will upgrade its level of readiness by activating personnel from critical state agencies working within the Emergency Operations Center. Those state agencies include Louisiana State Police, the Louisiana National Guard, the Louisiana Department of Transportation and Development, the Louisiana Department of Agriculture and Forestry, the Louisiana Department of Health and Hospitals, the Louisiana Department of Social Services and the Division of Administration.

Due to the potential threat to Louisiana posed by Hurricane Dean, those agencies will begin manning their respective positions on a 24 hour basis as of 8 a.m. Saturday morning.

“Louisiana is prepared. We will keep a close eye on Hurricane Dean throughout the weekend,” said GOHSEP Director Jeff Smith. “I want to remind our citizens to also do their part and prepare. I strongly urge our citizens to pick up an evacuation guide and begin planning for your family’s safety should this or a future storm head toward Louisiana.”

To read the Governor’s emergency declaration and letter to President Bush, visit http://www.gov.state.la.us.

[KBBOCA]

I hope it's ok for non mets and non-residents in the area to post information updates here (emergency advisories, and useful links?) There was a good update from Cancun on Storm Carib about emergency preparations. Would that be ok to post?

[x-y-no]

I've noticed now that it is becoming obvious that a US landfall is rather unlikely (yes, I know, anything is possible) and that NHC track has been consistent and correct now for a couple of days, and even Joe Bastardi doesn't have an argument, the number of people posting here is starting to trail off.


I suppose traffic will go back up the day it hits Tampico or La Pesca.

Our level of traffic is always lower on the weekends. But despite that, we had over 500 users online for an extended period today, and that's a level this board had *never* reached before three days ago. So I don't think one can accurately claim that interest is trailing off.

I anticipate a new record for users online Monday, regardless of what track the storm takes.

[MusicCityMan]

Very nice with the bilingual translation Luis lol..

Seriously.. I've got a BAD feeling Cancun and Cozumel are going to be absolutely flattened by a 160 maybe even 170 mph cat 5 storm.

Just as long as it doesn't pull a Mitch and absolutely park itself, it'll lessen some of the catastrophic damage.

[RL3AO]

I don't know if anyone has posted this yet, but the Governer of Louisiana has declared a state of emergency. Think they're scared?

Yesterday called...oh forget it. Apparently, this is pretty normal.

[Steve Cosby]

I don't know if anyone has posted this yet, but the Governer of Louisiana has declared a state of emergency. Think they're scared?

Governor Declares State Of Emergency

She's just covering her backside since they failed so miserably the last time.

(IMHO, of course)

[cycloneye]

I hope it's ok for non mets and non-residents in the area to post information updates here (emergency advisories, and useful links?) There was a good update from Cancun on Storm Carib about emergency preparations. Would that be ok to post?

Sure. And from storm carib it will be very good.

[x-y-no]

Hello friens,i'am back,after one day of storm winds,and hurricane gusts in my location;one man reported missing in d=sea,agricultural dammages,some beach erosion,power outages,trees fall down,but nothing when you compare to Martinica,where at this time,2 people are reported dead(one old woman of heart attack),and 6 injuries.
A lot of houses without roof,destruction of banana,and sugar plantations.

And...i can imagine what that will be in the next territories if Dean struck them with it's actual violence.....Al my prayers to a lot of unfortunate people...........

Glad you made it through OK, and thanks for checking in.

[Ed Mahmoud]

JB's disagreements with NHC have been small things, but he agrees with general track. JB also says if Dean hits Cozumel or Southward, it will miss Texas. His final target, which hasn't been updated, is pretty close for a 5 day forecast.

To quote JB from last night

FRIDAY 10 PM

BRAVO TPC, BRAVO.

I have been taking "ties" with tpc and though there may be some disagreement on this storm bending its track around Jamaica ( so far its moving straight west) there can be no disagreement on the excellence on the forecast on this storm so far. So I have good reason for not taking "bold stands" for there is no reason to as of yet. Check this out and be amazed. Since the track was adjusted south, I dont think the errors on 48 hours are over 30 miles. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2007/gr ... p_5W.shtml

[KBBOCA]

Here's the Storm Carib link for updates from the Yucatan:
http://stormcarib.com/reports/current/mexico.shtml

I found the following excerpt of one of the reports encouraging, and it is very true that the Yucatan's preps for Wilma were amazing and exemplary from all I heard and read:

We have been seeing a lot of activity today, this morning I noticed a pamphlet had been put under our door concerning hurricane preparedness , put out by the State Government, outlining what to do antes (before) , durante (during) and despues (after) a storm. The stores were pretty full, I am sure tomorrow everyone will start their preparations in full swing.

What is encouraging for us here, is that our Governor, Lic. Felix Arturo Gonzalez Canto was in office for a few short months when Wilma hit. His leadership and the governments actions in the aftermath have been recognized by the United Nations as a model for disaster relief. Here in Playa Del Carmen we had power after 3 days while friends in Florida were without for 3 weeks, and we experienced Wilma as a cat 4(36 hrs) and they as a cat 2 (8 hrs).

[vaffie]

Semi-random speculation--I've noticed that the satellite presentation of Dean over the last hour has become increasingly stretched northwest to southeast with most of the strong convection to the northwest. This is quite a departure from earlier today, when it was mostly on the south. I've seen this with other storms in the past and it sometimes indicates an early sign that the storm is going to start heading more northwest in the coming hours. What do you guys think.

[cycloneye]

Se me olvido que si no sabes mucho ingles,puedes postear en español y yo lo voy a traducir al idioma ingles.

I forgot to say that if any of you dont know how to post in english,I will traduce from spanish to english,and by doing it that way the vast majority of the members will know what we are talking about in spanish.

[jhamps10]

Semi-random speculation--I've noticed that the satellite presentation of Dean over the last hour has become increasingly stretched northwest to southeast with most of the strong convection to the northwest. This is quite a departure from earlier today, when it was mostly on the south. I've seen this with other storms in the past and it sometimes indicates an early sign that the storm is going to start heading more northwest in the coming hours. What do you guys think.

That is usually an indication of 1 of 2 things, 1 what you said, 2. shear, I'd go with option 1.

[RL3AO]

270
URNT15 KNHC 182258
AF302 0704A DEAN HDOB 10 20070818
224830 1806N 06847W 5059 05790 0302 -055 -055 118051 051 039 004 00
224900 1806N 06849W 5060 05783 0301 -055 -058 122048 050 039 004 00
224930 1806N 06852W 5057 05791 0298 -058 -061 124047 048 039 003 00
225000 1806N 06855W 5059 05784 0299 -059 -062 123047 048 039 003 00
225030 1806N 06858W 5058 05781 0298 -059 -066 125048 048 039 000 00
225100 1806N 06900W 5058 05782 0297 -055 -063 124047 049 040 000 00
225130 1806N 06903W 5058 05786 0297 -055 -058 114042 044 040 000 00
225200 1806N 06906W 5059 05786 0297 -055 -057 106042 043 041 000 00
225230 1806N 06908W 5059 05780 0297 -054 -061 111042 043 040 000 00
225300 1806N 06911W 5057 05785 0296 -052 -064 112044 045 040 001 00
225330 1806N 06914W 5059 05781 0295 -052 -064 118044 044 041 000 00
225400 1806N 06917W 5058 05779 0295 -053 -063 112044 044 042 000 00
225430 1806N 06919W 5059 05780 0296 -054 -065 111044 044 041 000 00
225500 1806N 06922W 5057 05783 0294 -055 -065 109045 046 042 000 00
225530 1806N 06925W 5060 05778 0294 -055 -062 102047 048 042 000 00
225600 1806N 06928W 5060 05775 0293 -055 -063 102049 051 042 002 00
225630 1806N 06930W 5059 05778 0294 -055 -061 102050 051 042 002 00
225700 1806N 06933W 5061 05776 0293 -054 -062 103050 051 043 000 00
225730 1806N 06936W 5057 05784 0295 -055 -063 106051 051 042 000 03
225800 1805N 06938W 5058 05791 0296 -059 -066 112051 052 037 003 03
$$

[Normandy]

WOAH!!!
Somebody save the last visible shot of Dean.....the eye has mesovortices (No joke.....take a look).

Unreal!

[dwg71]

large wobble west or south of west, im sure its nothing, but puts it south of NHC track.

[AnnularCane]

Correct me if I am wrong, but isn't true, that in certain cases, that powerful hurricanes can facilitate the strengthening of a high pressure to it's north, pumping up the pressure, or having a physical influence i.e. dragging the high pressure atmosphere to it's north along with it? This is an amateur's question, who has had no experience in studying atmospheric thermodynamics.

That's what I've heard. I don't know how true it is, but I remember a few storms that were supposed to head north but got really strong and either never did, or the north turn was delayed (and were usually weaker by then).

[P.K.]

Recently released advisory from Jamaica.

BULLETIN No. 10

*** HURRICANE WARNING CONTINUED AS DEAN HEADS TOWARD JAMAICA ***
A HURRICANE WARNING remains in effect for Jamaica as dangerous Hurricane Dean continues on a path towards the island. This means that the following dangerous effects of a hurricane are expected to affect Jamaica in 24 hours or less:

Dangerously high water and/or exceptionally high waves, even though winds expected may be less than hurricane force; or

Average winds of 118 km/h (64 knots or 75 mph) or higher.



At 4:00 p.m. the centre of Hurricane Dean was located near Latitude 16.1 degrees North, Longitude 70.2 degrees West. This is about 270 km (165 miles) south of Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic, or 670 km (420 miles) east-southeast of Morant Point, Jamaica.

Dean is moving towards the west-northwest near 30 km/h (18 mph) and this general motion is expected to continue during the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 240 km/h (150 mph), with higher gusts, and fluctuations in strength are likely during the next 24 hours. Hurricane force winds extend outward approximately 110 km (70 miles), while tropical storm force winds extend 370 km (230 miles) from the centre.

Hurricane Dean is expected to continue moving south of Hispaniola today and early Sunday before tracking across Jamaica through the afternoon and evening on Sunday. Outer bands of the hurricane could, however, start affecting the island by late tonight or early tomorrow morning with periods of showers and gusty winds reaching near gale force.

As Dean approaches to the coastline, expect heavy rainfall capable of producing severe flash floods and landslides. Storm surge flooding of 1.5-3 metres above normal tide levels along with large and dangerous battering waves can be expected near the centre of Dean, especially in areas of sustained hurricane-force winds.

All small craft operators are reminded to remain in safe harbour until all warning messages have been lifted and wind and sea conditions have returned to normal.

All interests should continue to monitor subsequent Releases from the Meteorological Service. The next Bulletin on Hurricane Dean will be issued at 8:00 p.m.

See http://www.metservice.gov.jm/news.asp.

[KBBOCA]

Normandy Give us a link please!