Invest 99L:Off E Coast-Discussions

[cycloneye]

It is probably a TD at least with the closed circulation being found. Now waiting for 07L.NONAME.

And more important the first advisory.

[cycloneye]

WTNT02 KNGU 051600
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 051600Z SEP 07//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 29.1N 70.0W TO 29.1N 72.8W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF A NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT THIS TIME.
2. AM AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 29.1N 71.3W WITH AN
ESTIMATED PRESSURE OF 1007MB IS CURRENTLY MOVING EASTWARD AT 9
KNOTS BUT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ERRATICALLY OVER THE NEXT 12
TO 18 HOURS. A WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT 18
TO 24 HOURS, ESTIMATED SURFACE WINDS ARE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY BECOME MORE FAVOURABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT
AS THIS SYSTEM REMAINS OVER WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR
CANCELLED BY 061600Z.//


A second statement of TCFA has been issued.But with the plane reporting 1005 mbs this becomes not too important as the real information is developing with the recon data.

[CrazyC83]

That was issued at 1600Z (12 noon EDT) and came late it looks like.

[x-y-no]

It is probably a TD at least with the closed circulation being found. Now waiting for 07L.NONAME.

And more important the first advisory.

I'd definitely call it a TD. Closed circulation (well, we knew that) warm core and winds in the 30 knot neighborhood.

[JonathanBelles]

Processing delays, working to remedy, please check all dates/times [Wed] <----From NRl

[Derek Ortt]

if it's upgrtaded, with would likely be Gabrielle with the winds found by the aircraft at the surface

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Waiting for the vortex message. Once we have that then the nhc can think about upgrading.

[fasterdisaster]

This should likely be a 35 kt TS

[Nimbus]

The clockwise rotation over the gulf keeps growing in size. That is going to be one huge ridge when it finally gets over Gabby.

[oyster_reef]

The clockwise rotation over the gulf keeps growing in size. That is going to be one huge ridge when it finally gets over Gabby.

if that's the case, look for this thing to cross Fla. and move into the GOM!

[Stormcenter]

this is NOT taking longer to develop than expected

Most need to be far more patient with these systems. Still looking for a strong hurricane out of this. This is going EXACTLY AS EXPECTED

Those are serious words (strong hurricane) for something that has yet to be "officially" classified and still being sheared pretty decently. We shall see. Anyway I'm glad it's in the East coast waters and not the GOM. It's funny how Mother Nature balances things out in the long run. I just hope she doesn't feel like throwing something significant into the GOM this season.

[Stormcenter]

The clockwise rotation over the gulf keeps growing in size. That is going to be one huge ridge when it finally gets over Gabby.

if that's the case, look for this thing to cross Fla. and move into the GOM!

I didn't find humor in that if it was meant to be humorous.

[Frank2]

I was just looking at the WV Loop:

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

and, noticed a lobe of the high pressure area to the north of the low, that is dropping southward, to the west of the low - I might be wrong, but, if that is the case, the high is building to the north and west of the low, not the north and east, which would indicate that the low would move northeastward, instead of the opposite...

Do any of the pro-folks have an opinon on what was just mentioned?

Thanks

[Derek Ortt]

the low is not going to the NE for more than 12-24 more hours. That looks like a low on WV dropping west of the developing storm

[Frank2]

Thanks, Derek...

[emeraldislencguy]

live on emerald isle--what are the chances of us getting hurricane force winds out of this system--I know that may be difficult to answer but have a family member in his 90's and we need to begin thinking about his plans--any help or ideas from the pr mets about how strong it could get here would be appreciated.

[jhamps10]

The clockwise rotation over the gulf keeps growing in size. That is going to be one huge ridge when it finally gets over Gabby.

OK, I'm not seeing that clockwise rotation over the gulf and I looked on visable loop, Where are you seeing this?

[btangy]

The upper level low may actually aid in development eventually if it can become superimposed with the low level circulation (upper level trough interaction). Right now, it's acting more to shear 99L and hindering development.

What I think will be found is a shallow warm core with an upper level cold core which is typical of subtropical systems. IMO, this warrants a subtropical classification but will quickly become tropical once the convection can infiltrate the core.

[cpdaman]

i think that upper low is forecast to cut off

[Derek Ortt]

right now, I would NOT upgrade if it were my call

I want just a little more separation from the old frontal system first... maybe tomorrow morning