Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

[cycloneye]

Off Topic:

Is that big mass of deep convection part of the tail of Noel,or is a separated entity?.If that comes north towards Puerto Rico,it would be a massive flooding event apart from what already we haved seen since yesterday.Over 8 inches haved fallen since yesterday in southern PR.Any take from the pro mets on that big convection area?

[Vortex]

12Z Euro brings Noel W/WNW to just south of central Cuba then N to over or just east of S.FL. Similar to GFS/NOGAPS.


http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 12!!!step/

[Vortex]

12Z Euro brings Noel W/WNW to just south of central Cuba then N to over or just east of S.FL. Similar to GFS/NOGAPS.


http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 12!!!step/

[Derek Ortt]

looks to be a part of Noel. The overall circulation is quite large

[cycloneye]

Thanks Derek for the rapid answer.Hopefully it weakens before it gets here.



There it comes.

[Vortex]

Also, 12z HWRF and CMC are slightly further west on there 3 day positions. Still don't think final outcome set in stone but like Andros as a safe medium.

[Vortex]

18z BAMS/LBAR?

[Evil Jeremy]

I was just about to ask that. When do they come in?

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Okay, Noel NEEDS to come to Florida or Lake Ockeechobee will
suffer and then with La NINA we will have a Horrible Drought and
Very Bad Wildfires. It makes me so disgusted that this is hitting
Haiti where they Do Not need the rain instead of Florida
where we NEED the rain badly or hitting the SE US where
the rain is needed and Hitting as a Tropical Storm with lots
of heavy rain.

If the current track verifies, FL will have horrible wildfires
and drought next spring and Haiti will have horrible
flooding.

[southerngale]

Updated guidance in line with CMC/GFDL/HWRF

Will remain well east of Florida. Looks like the US made it through '07

Florida wasn't hit by a hurricane, but the one that hit Texas doesn't count, I guess.

Not only is the Golden Triangle not part of Texas, the US has stopped claiming it.

When did yall secede?

lol... I know. And Rita didn't devastate us... it spared Houston and flooded New Orleans.

N/P Vortex.

Regarding Noel, I was surprised by how impressive it looked when I first saw it this afternoon. With it moving so slow, I don't know what a best track would even be. Someone is going to get way too much rain, at the least.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Starting to get a little outflow towards the West, a sign (IMHO) that shear is decreasing.

[ronjon]

Yeah, Vortex just about to post the 12Z Euro - takes the storm north across the straits over the upper keys and scraps the SE FL coast from Miami to Ft Laud. At this point, I would put more weight on the Euro since it has had the best performance in the 3-5 day outlook. The GFDL for some reason this year has had a right-of-track bias. I don't think S FL or the keys are out of the woods yet.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!120!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2007102812!!/

[johngaltfla]

this is not done

it is behaving just like the HWRF and GFDL predicted. Across Haiti as a 45-50KT storm, THEN becoming a hurricane

Interesting. The Bahamas have taken a beating this century and it's the last thing they need. I wonder if the timing will allow for rapid intensification after hitting Haiti. It's never dull during the season, that's for sure....

[Vortex]

Recent ship report

SHIP S 1800 15.90 -72.40 62 196 10 33.0

33kts

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 281927
AF303 0116A CYCLONE1 HDOB 14 20071028
191430 1717N 07254W 9769 00236 0035 +249 +220 025021 023 032 000 00
191500 1715N 07253W 9770 00235 0035 +250 +220 026025 027 033 000 00
191530 1715N 07253W 9770 00235 0035 +249 +220 029028 029 037 000 00
191600 1711N 07253W 9768 00237 0035 +248 +220 025030 032 039 000 00
191630 1709N 07252W 9773 00234 0035 +246 +220 027032 034 039 000 00
191700 1707N 07252W 9782 00221 0034 +247 +220 030034 036 040 000 00
191730 1705N 07251W 9769 00233 0032 +242 +220 032035 036 040 000 00
191800 1703N 07251W 9778 00225 0033 +226 +220 028037 038 041 000 00
191830 1702N 07251W 9770 00230 0033 +222 +220 028037 038 040 000 00
191900 1700N 07250W 9770 00231 0032 +228 +220 026036 038 041 000 00
191930 1658N 07250W 9770 00229 0031 +230 +220 026034 035 039 000 00
192000 1656N 07250W 9768 00230 0031 +228 +220 028035 037 040 000 00
192030 1655N 07249W 9772 00228 0029 +231 +220 023033 034 042 000 00
192100 1653N 07249W 9767 00232 0029 +234 +220 021035 036 041 000 00
192130 1651N 07249W 9770 00229 0029 +231 +220 022035 036 040 000 00
192200 1649N 07248W 9767 00231 0029 +226 +220 019030 032 038 003 00
192230 1648N 07248W 9767 00229 0028 +233 +220 023031 032 039 000 00
192300 1646N 07247W 9768 00231 0028 +235 +220 017029 030 999 999 03
192330 1646N 07246W 9775 00222 0026 +239 +220 020026 028 036 000 03
192400 1646N 07244W 9767 00229 0026 +237 +220 020025 029 036 000 00
$$
;

[HURAKAN]

[Ptarmigan]

Florida wasn't hit by a hurricane, but the one that hit Texas doesn't count, I guess.

Humberto came close to hitting Houston. Had it hit Houston instead, it could of been much worse. The Golden Triangle doesn't need anymore storms in light of Rita. I know that Humberto was a small hurricane and only killed one person, but it was a shocker because most did not expect a hurricane.

[HURAKAN]

[Derek Ortt]

south Florida is not in a drought. Our rain totals (at least Dade) are not that far from normal.

The Lake is suffering ebcause of pathetic management, not due to nature

[HURAKAN]

south Florida is not in a drought. Our rain totals (at least Dade) are not that far from normal.

The Lake is suffering ebcause of pathetic management, not due to nature

That's true but rainfall is the only cure.