CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[CrazyC83]

256
URNT15 KNHC 190138
AF302 0704A DEAN HDOB 26 20070819
012830 1644N 07210W 6968 03097 0003 +079 +079 046073 076 052 006 00
012900 1642N 07210W 6963 03098 0008 +073 +073 045073 075 050 008 00
012930 1639N 07211W 6965 03095 0000 +077 +077 042072 073 052 006 00
013000 1637N 07211W 6967 03089 9996 +078 +078 041073 074 053 006 00
013030 1635N 07212W 6966 03088 9985 +085 +085 040073 074 054 004 00
013100 1633N 07212W 6971 03082 9977 +090 +090 038069 070 054 004 00
013130 1631N 07212W 6966 03083 9978 +085 +085 036068 069 055 004 00
013200 1628N 07213W 6964 03084 9981 +083 +083 034068 069 056 004 00
013230 1626N 07213W 6967 03080 9970 +090 +090 032066 067 057 002 00
013300 1624N 07214W 6968 03079 9965 +092 +092 031067 068 058 002 00
013330 1621N 07214W 6966 03081 9966 +091 +091 028067 068 059 001 00
013400 1619N 07215W 6967 03079 9967 +090 +090 025068 069 058 003 00
013430 1617N 07215W 6966 03076 9968 +088 +088 023068 069 058 001 00
013500 1615N 07216W 6969 03076 9972 +085 +085 021065 066 057 008 00
013530 1612N 07216W 6964 03078 9975 +083 +083 017066 067 057 008 00
013600 1610N 07217W 6964 03079 9978 +081 +081 016065 066 059 010 00
013630 1608N 07217W 6965 03078 9989 +072 +072 012071 074 060 044 03
013700 1605N 07217W 6963 03079 0000 +061 +061 007077 080 060 018 01
013730 1603N 07218W 6959 03085 9990 +059 +999 002076 079 056 020 01
013800 1601N 07218W 6966 03080 0004 +060 +060 359079 080 054 053 05
$$

Still all hurricane force. Wind field greatly expanded.

[KBBOCA]

In the Jamaica thread on Storm Carib, there are updates from the Office of Disaster Preparedness and Emergency Management (ODPEM) in Kingston. Here is the latest news release:
------------

NEWS RELEASE #6

ISSUED ON: Saturday, August 18, 2007 at 8:30 p.m.
ODPEM EVACUATION ORDERS MUST BE HEEDED

It has come to the attention of the ODPEM that persons in the designated areas to be evacuated are refusing the Evacuation Order.

ALL PERSONS WHO LIVE IN COMMUNITIES CLOSE TO THE SEA ARE ADVISED TO START EVACUATING NOW.

A Mandatory Evacuation order has been issued for the following communities in Portmore:

Portmore:
1. Waterford
2. Caymans Gardens
3. Portsmouth
4. Armada Courts
5. Port Henderson Road
6. Passage Fort
7. Independence City
8. West Chester
9. Edge Water
10. Garvey Mead
11. Bridgeview
12. West Mead
13. West Port
14. South Borough

Assembly points:

1. West Port Community Centre
2. West Chester Community Centre
3. Edge Water Community Centre
4. South Borough Community Centre
5. Bayside New Testament Church of God
6. SDC Sports Complex
7. Braeton All Age School
8. Greater Portmore Primary

Bull Bay, St. Andrew:
1. Taylor Lands
2. 9 Mile Square

Assembly point: St. Benedicts Primary School and Church

Nightingale Grove:
Assembly point: Bushy Park Baptist Church

Seaforth, St. Thomas:
Communities along the Johnson River:

1. Riverside Drive
2. Blacksmith Lane
3. Moodie Lane
4. Packa Lane
5. York (ShantyTown)
6. Morant Area.

Assembly points:

1. Seaforth High
2. Seaforth Primary

Bath, St. Thomas:
All low-lying areas of Bath are being asked to evacuate to the Bath Primary and Junior High.

Port Royal:
All residents should assemble at the National Arena.

Shelter Managers are being asked to open ALL shelters in the evacuation zones and persons are advised to take along basic items such as bedding, flashlight, extra clothing, medication, food, water, infant necessities (if required) and a first-aid kit.

In the aftermath of Hurricane Dean, the Salvation Army and Seventh Day Adventist (SDA) Churches will be established as Registration Centres for affected persons and distribution centres for relief items.

The progress of Hurricane Dean will continue to be closely monitored by the Meteorological Service of Jamaica and the Office of Disaster Preparedness and Emergency Management (ODPEM) and updates will be released to the public as soon as new information has been gathered.

Contact: Kerry-Ann Morris, Information Officer, kmorris@odpem.org.jm

[RL3AO]

I've been away from the computer for most of the day; just checked the latest and it appears that Dean is definitely headed for Mexico? Is the TX coastline from Brownsville all the way to Houston/Galveston now in the clear?

No. Southern Texas is still in the cone.

[HURAKAN]

[Aquawind]

Interesting I am listening to Jamaican Radio and they just mentioned the wobble/movement to the west and that models suggested it will go south of the island and thus it's somewhat good news.. Tad premature but then no need to create panic tonight..

[MusicCityMan]

Update: Jamaica's PM message now scheduled to air on Power 106 at 9pm {10pm Eastern}

[Rainband]

right now, this is a cat 3 hurricane. There were 5 seperate wind maxima in the NE quad... here is a plot I made

http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/~derek/deanflprofile.jpg

a quintuple wind maxima

Thanx Derek, perhaps that's good news for the island....Let's hope it stays a cat 3 or weakens to less....

Cat 3? 920mb pressure?? Ok...I'll be quiet before I insult somebody. Cat. 3...HA HA HA

You already did. You are being watched. Consider this a warning.

[Stormavoider]

I've been away from the computer for most of the day; just checked the latest and it appears that Dean is definitely headed for Mexico? Is the TX coastline from Brownsville all the way to Houston/Galveston now in the clear?

No. Southern Texas is still in the cone.

And the cone will change many times.

[deltadog03]

I have a little hunch.....Today, and most of day, dean was moving around 295 or so. When his EWRC started he really jogged W and even WSW. I am wonding if now thats starting to wrap up I wonder if that WNW motion will really continue. Any thoughts>?

[crazycajuncane]

Power 106 reporting that some living on coastal communities in Jamaica are REFUSING TO HEED evacuation orders. I just stop and wonder a little bit.. what is with these people..?

The same thing that is wrong with people who stay for Cat 4's in N.O.

It's not just "those people". It happens in every state no matter how big the storm.

[fasterdisaster]

This storm looks just like Katrina did at landfall.

If it stays as is now, I expect the NHC to drop it to 120 kt or so and call it "generous".

I must disagree. This system looks infinitely better than Katrina at landfall.

[fasterdisaster]

I have a little hunch.....Today, and most of day, dean was moving around 295 or so. When his EWRC started he really jogged W and even WSW. I am wonding if now thats starting to wrap up I wonder if that WNW motion will really continue. Any thoughts>?

It actually has already just starting returning to its WNW motion!

[wxman57]

Never saw a hurricane downgraded when it was going through an obvious EWRC. The pressure is lowering the storm IS strengthening and nothing in the synoptic environment is influencing it to weaken. This as many people have pointed out is temporary but for some reason people want to argue it. The NHC kept it where it is because there's NO reason to break the continuity for a temporary thing. With so many experts in here no wonder very few of the pro's feel the need to post. Go figure!

00Z models were initialized at 130 kts (no change). Recon may not find winds to support 130 kts but the rapid pressure fall means that the winds will respond shortly. I expect Dean will be a Cat 5 in the morning with 140 kt winds or more. Pressure may bottom out below 900mb past Jamaica with 150-155kt winds.

Good news is that the ridge is holding strong and Dean should cut across a good chunk of real estate (the Yucatan) Monday night. That should drop it to at least a Cat 2 when it emerges into the SW Gulf. Appears to be Tampico-bound. NHC will likely move the track south on the next advisory.

Ok, that's it, no more Dean tonight. Worked from 5:30 this morning to 6:30 this evening on Dean. Another 12 hour shift tomorrow. Might only have to work 8-10 hr shifts next week. Could use more than 5 hours sleep a night, but like most of you, I can't stop watching Dean. This is one hurricane that I don't want to see up close, though.

[MusicCityMan]

Ok.. those people wasn't the right words 2 use..

I'll admit.. I absolutely LOVE STORMS .. but if I lived in Melbourne, Daytona, Miami, Tampa/St Pete or any other coastal community here and a Cat 5 was coming.. I'd move onto the mainland..

[Rainband]

We appreciate all the hard work from you and the other Pro mets Wxman57. My thanks to you all

[CrazyC83]

739
URNT15 KNHC 190148
AF302 0704A DEAN HDOB 27 20070819
013830 1558N 07219W 6971 03077 9993 +073 +073 356076 077 051 042 03
013900 1556N 07219W 6961 03091 0009 +063 +063 351073 078 999 999 03
013930 1554N 07220W 6968 03084 0016 +060 +060 351070 072 055 056 03
014000 1551N 07220W 6966 03090 0022 +058 +058 353066 068 057 038 03
014030 1549N 07221W 6965 03092 0015 +062 +062 353067 071 058 017 00
014100 1547N 07221W 6964 03095 0018 +063 +063 343068 069 056 017 00
014130 1545N 07221W 6971 03086 9991 +084 +084 347067 069 045 017 03
014200 1542N 07222W 6963 03101 9984 +093 +076 346065 066 046 017 03
014230 1540N 07222W 6964 03100 9992 +088 +076 347065 066 045 010 03
014300 1538N 07223W 6968 03095 0008 +077 +077 347065 066 045 011 00
014330 1536N 07223W 6963 03102 0008 +078 +078 346067 067 044 025 03
014400 1533N 07224W 6963 03111 0016 +077 +077 346063 066 043 007 00
014430 1531N 07224W 6967 03108 0010 +085 +082 346057 058 043 004 00
014500 1529N 07225W 6969 03111 0019 +082 +082 347056 061 042 006 00
014530 1527N 07225W 6966 03118 0026 +078 +078 342052 054 043 007 00
014600 1525N 07225W 6965 03120 0036 +073 +073 341054 054 046 043 03
014630 1523N 07226W 6964 03129 0054 +064 +064 342054 056 045 022 03
014700 1521N 07224W 6967 03126 0050 +069 +069 339053 054 999 999 03
014730 1522N 07223W 6970 03115 0045 +069 +069 340050 051 045 011 03
014800 1523N 07222W 6964 03118 0038 +069 +069 338051 052 048 008 00
$$

[Derek Ortt]

looks like some very heavy storms now affecting the western DR and east Haiti

[Ptarmigan]

920mb strengthening cat 3...does that sound weird to anyone else?

It's undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle. Katrina had 920 mb and 125 mph winds, but that was undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle I believe at the time.

[vacanechaser]

This storm looks just like Katrina did at landfall.

If it stays as is now, I expect the NHC to drop it to 120 kt or so and call it "generous".

I must disagree. This system looks infinitely better than Katrina at landfall.

yes it does.... there was a large area on the west side in katrina that was breaking down due to dry air.. cant say it enough.. to compare the two storms is rediculous...


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[JTD]

This storm looks just like Katrina did at landfall.

If it stays as is now, I expect the NHC to drop it to 120 kt or so and call it "generous".

I must disagree. This system looks infinitely better than Katrina at landfall.

yes it does.... there was a large area on the west side in katrina that was breaking down due to dry air.. cant say it enough.. to compare the two storms is rediculous...


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

O/T, but I remember that first visible on Monday August 29 after the eclipse of Katrina. The west side break down was absolutely stunning to see. It looked like half the storm was gone!