Hurricane FELIX: Caribbean-Discussions

[Derek Ortt]

also, this thing has rapidly expanded in size

Rainbands are currently affecting Haiti and Columbia

[jhamps10]

Before I jump off for a while, looks like a westerly component the last few frames closer to 275. JMO

Steve

Yeah it looks like a west jog last few frames. however we have seen a lot of different wobbles today, some to nw, and others to due west, however the long term trend has been W-NW.

[windstorm99]

IR loop of felix...

[Ptarmigan]

IR loop of felix...

http://i12.tinypic.com/4pebsxd.gif

Felix has a pinhole eye for sure, kinda like Wilma. It has opportunity to strengthened more.

[Duddy]

That image clearly shows that the storm is gaining latitude. Atleast .5 degrees in the last 6 hours.

[jhamps10]

That image clearly shows that the storm is gaining latitude. Atleast .5 degrees in the last 6 hours.

yes in that loop, HOWEVER as soon as that loop ends in an extra 2 hours in AVN loop showing DUE west, or almost due west.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

[LAwxrgal]

This is a classic, pretty much perfect looking hurricane.

My prayers to wherever this beast lands. Tropical storm to Cat 5? in nothing flat. Hmm, haven't we seen this script before?

[hial2]

This is a classic, pretty much perfect looking hurricane.

My prayers to wherever this beast lands. Tropical storm to Cat 5? in nothing flat. Hmm, haven't we seen this script before?

Alas,chances are we will see it again,and sooner than later..

[CrazyC83]

152 kt FL winds; 163 kt surface by SFMR (although questionable IMO).

The FL suggests 137 kt at the surface.

[PhillyWX]

152 kt FL winds; 163 kt surface by SFMR (although questionable IMO).

The FL suggests 137 kt at the surface.

Still no advisory yet I think they're going Cat 5 and will issue a special on it.

[Ptarmigan]

Hurricane Felix ACE as of right now is 4.18 or 4.2.

[CrazyC83]

152 kt FL winds; 163 kt surface by SFMR (although questionable IMO).

The FL suggests 137 kt at the surface.

Still no advisory yet I think they're going Cat 5 and will issue a special on it.

Probably correct. (140 kt would be my estimate as I don't really believe the 163)

[PhillyWX]

HURRICANE FELIX SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
0000 UTC MON SEP 03 2007

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND FOR GRAND
CAYMAN. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 72.9W AT 03/0000Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 934 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 145 KT WITH GUSTS TO 175 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT.......100NE 75SE 50SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 75SE 40SW 125NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 72.9W AT 03/0000Z
AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 71.2W

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 14.1N 74.5W
MAX WIND 150 KT...GUSTS 185 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 14.8N 78.0W
MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 15.4N 81.1W
MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 75SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 16.0N 83.5W
MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 75SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 17.3N 87.7W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 90SE 75SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 19.5N 91.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 21.5N 95.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 72.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z


FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Evil Jeremy]

I smell a special advisory coming soon

[PhillyWX]

Still no advisory yet I think they're going Cat 5 and will issue a special on it.

Special coming out...

[Cyclenall]

Yeah, I think this is Wilma's pet cat named Felix. I'm in utter disbelief, just like in 2005. I didn't think it would go this extreme so quickly, but I did think RI was likely day(s) ago.

Second % chance of Amazing Hurricane Felix becoming a:

Category 4 Hurricane: 100%
Category 5 Hurricane: 86% (:shock:)
Windspeeds of around 150 knots: 70%
Windspeeds of around 160 knots: 35%
Windspeeds of around 170 knots: 3%

This is all my opinion, not an official forecast.

[vacanechaser]

786
WTNT21 KNHC 022358
TCMAT1
HURRICANE FELIX SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
0000 UTC MON SEP 03 2007

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND FOR GRAND
CAYMAN. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 72.9W AT 03/0000Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 934 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 145 KT WITH GUSTS TO 175 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT.......100NE 75SE 50SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 75SE 40SW 125NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 72.9W AT 03/0000Z
AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 71.2W

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 14.1N 74.5W
MAX WIND 150 KT...GUSTS 185 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 14.8N 78.0W
MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 15.4N 81.1W
MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 75SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 16.0N 83.5W
MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 75SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 17.3N 87.7W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 90SE 75SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 19.5N 91.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 21.5N 95.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 72.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN



note... 145kts.... 167mph... cat5

[cycloneye]

TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FELIX SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
800 PM EDT SUN SEP 02 2007

...FELIX NOW A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE...

REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT FELIX
CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND FOR GRAND
CAYMAN. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FELIX WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.9 WEST OR ABOUT 390 MILES...
625 KM...SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

FELIX IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 165 MPH...270 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. FELIX IS A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE TO BE EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115
MILES...185 KM.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM RECONNAISSANCE
DATA IS 934 MB...27.58 INCHES.

FELIX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES
OVER THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA.

REPEATING THE 800 PM EDT POSITION...13.8 N...72.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...934 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/BROWN

[jhamps10]

Hello CAT 5 Felix!

145 kts, what 165 MPH?

[Scorpion]

My god... 145 kt and 934 mb? Crazy!