TD INGRID: Discussions & Images - Last Advisory

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Depession now no questions asked. In the post report it will likely state it has been one for the last 6 hours. I feel it will jump to tropical storm if they get a ship report...If not aidepression at 11am est. End of discussion.

[Weatherfreak14]

Tropics are heated up now.. Looks very impressive 95% chance a depression by 11am or sooner.

[Meso]

8am TWD

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A SLOW MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 13N43W OR ABOUT
1000 NM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE THIS
MORNING. THE MINIMUM PRES IS ANALYZED 1009 MB BASED ON BUOY
41041 LOCATED ABOUT 180 NM TO THE NW OF THE BROAD LOW. SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A CONSOLIDATING AND INCREASINGLY CIRCULAR MASS OF
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS
DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN EXACTLY ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS TO BE
PARTIALLY TUCKED UNDER THE CLOUDINESS NEAR THE ERN EDGE OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 43W-46W.
CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM
LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
5-10 KT.

[wzrgirl1]

folks according to the first model runs, this should go north of the islands and depending upon whether or not the system slows down, could go fishing

[HURAKAN]

Unlike Dean and Félix, this one will be a long tracker if the steering winds remain the way they are.

[skufful]

:uarrow: Unlike Dean and Félix, this one will be a long tracker if the steering winds remain the way they are.

Just what is a "long tracker?"

[HURAKAN]

:uarrow: Unlike Dean and Félix, this one will be a long tracker if the steering winds remain the way they are.

Just what is a "long tracker?"

Systems that we have to track for a long period of time. Dean and Félix were like the Road Runner, while 91L is more like a turtle!

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[skufful]

:uarrow: Unlike Dean and Félix, this one will be a long tracker if the steering winds remain the way they are.

Just what is a "long tracker?"

Systems that we have to track for a long period of time. Dean and Félix were like the Road Runner, while 91L is more like a turtle!

Thank you for the visual.

[cycloneye]

Anyone has noticed a more westward movement in recent frames?

[jlauderdal]

The convection has been persistant and all the models seem to be in agreement about a slow WNW motion. NHC will probably upgrade this morning.

The GFS has a huge blocking ridge over the sotheastern US at 144 hours. The trough is forecast to lift out in four days would not be able to pick this system up.

If we get a faster westward motion once the ridge develops over the southeastern states it will change the timing for the next steering trough. A trough could save Texas from a second landfall for example.

The GFS shows no such thing as a blocking ridge over the southeast U.S. at H144 (although there is a large upper high over the lower MS valley/gulf coast). And while there is a large high at the surface, between days 5 (120 hours) and 7 (168 hours) the GFS shows a large cutoff 500MB low developing just offshore the east coast of the United States and dropping southward to just offshore the east coast of Florida. If a solution close to the 00Z/06Z GFS or the 00Z ECM comes to pass, should there be a TC north of the GA in 5 to 6 days, it would start to turn northward to the east of the low.

Being that far out, no model solution should be taken verbatim.

nothing better than a cup of coffee and an early morning smackdown(well deserved might I add). I'm all for people posting and trying to learn and all that good stuff but let's be careful about posting unless you are absolutely sure of what you are looking at.

[HURAKAN]

Thank you for the visual.

I found it appropiate for the situation. 91L should be moving wnw to nw as the system intensifies. The slow movement shows that the ridge of high pressure is not very strong. Now, we will have to wait until it gets above 20N to see if it will be fishing or it the ridge intensifies and a more westward motion resumes.

[hurricanetrack]

Well, I don't know where it will be in a week from now, but there will be some rather strong westerly winds screaming towards what ever is out there. Look at the 200mb winds in 168 hours. Ouch! That will be painful to any tropical cyclone:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_168l.gif

[HURAKAN]

Latest:





If this is not a depression ..... then it's Humberto!!!!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Latest:





If this is not a depression ..... then it's Humberto!!!!

Heck I agree its humberto.

[Thunder44]

QS pass at 9:24 UTC, only captured the west side of the circulation, but it shows more north winds, unlike last night. A closed LLC is unconclusive on this image, but very likely there is one. There are also some 30kt to 40kt barbs. This may already be a TS:

[RL3AO]

Good morning guys. It looks like an easy upgrade at this rate at 11am or 5pm.

[Gustywind]

Anyone has noticed a more westward movement in recent frames?

Absolutely Cycloneye i've noticed that in the last 3 hours, hummm moving west or 270°...or my eyes are deceiving me or maybe are not untrained !

[RL3AO]

The 805 TWD is out. No upgrade yet.

[chrisnnavarre]

Anyone has noticed a more westward movement in recent frames?

Yep it's west alright. It's getting bigger and moving west. That's what I see on wide view anyway.