TD INGRID: Discussions & Images - Last Advisory

[PhillyWX]

The 805 TWD is out. No upgrade yet.

The NHC will probably go TD at 11, TS at 5 because of how far out this storm is plus they want to see some persistence in the storm before upgrading. If this storm were in the GOM it would have had recon in it by now and would have been upgraded earlier today.

[Blown Away]

Anyone has noticed a more westward movement in recent frames?

Yes, does look like just N of due W. I hope the NHC classifys 91L at 11am, so the pro's here, JB, Jeff Masters, etc can start predicting potential track. I don't think there is much doubt this is a depression at this point.

[hurricanetrack]

It looks to me like this will move off on a WNW path for at least the next five days and stay a tropical storm (when it reaches one). From there, if the increasing shear does not destroy it, we could easily see this moving more west under a building high over the western Atlantic. Then, an upper high builds out of the Caribbean and conditions might be better for development. This is just my 2 cents as of the latest 2 runs of the GFS and the GFDL models. It appears to me that this will not be a hurricane anytime soon.

[PhillyWX]

Well, I don't know where it will be in a week from now, but there will be some rather strong westerly winds screaming towards what ever is out there. Look at the 200mb winds in 168 hours. Ouch! That will be painful to any tropical cyclone:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_168l.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_120m.gif

It's there in the Carib at Hour 120 as well.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Reminds slightly of Dolly 2002. I don't think it crashs in burns like it....But a track near it or maybe even a frances. I don't expect a monster based on the tutt at 55-65 west causing shearing over the system. But you know how good the models are.

[StJoe]

Good morning Humberto

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

Imo: 11:00 will show TS Humberto...

Moving more westward too...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

Its debby. I expect it to go to near 22 north near 70 west. More like Frances.

[Derek Ortt]

Mark,

its that NCEP model... it cannot make a shear forecast to save a life

[HURRICANELONNY]

At the rate 91L is moving. We will be talking about it on Halloween. One thing is for sure. The Bermuda High is alot weaker.

[Sanibel]

Once this gets initialized as a TD we'll see what WXMAN57's special synoptic charts show. They nailed the Nicaragua landfall of Fleix.

Welp, looks like it jumped into the weakness in a slightly moderated GFDL track. Present west trend could be an illusion. Wait to see how it resolves itself overall before calling a more west trend. If it is going more west that has implications for Puerto Rico - but it is way too early. We have an interesting track developing it seems. Wait for WX57's synoptic model.

[Gustywind]

Anyone has noticed a more westward movement in recent frames?

Yep it's west alright. It's getting bigger and moving west. That's what I see on wide view anyway.

Yeah..interresting to watch ....

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[StJoe]

westerly movement more pronounced...

Looks like an eye will be forming real soon too...

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/atir.html

[Wacahootaman]

I think it has Florida written all over it.

Not because of the steering currents, but because the plunging property values in Florida,like a black hole will suck it into the state.

[Gustywind]

westerly movement more pronounced...

Looks like an eye will be forming real soon too...

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/atir.html

[Sanibel]

NHC says the center is on the east edge of the round CDO-like main convection disc.

[StJoe]

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/atwv.htmlt

Humberto is going to be a rainmaker!

Look how the Bermuda High is, imo, disappearing...

Lots of moisture and realitively no sheer for this one...

I think we have a bad boy coming to SoFla real soon...

[StJoe]

westerly movement more pronounced...

Looks like an eye will be forming real soon too...

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/atir.html

Gusty - Did I say something wrong?

[AtlanticWind]

Anyone has noticed a more westward movement in recent frames?

Yep it's west alright. It's getting bigger and moving west. That's what I see on wide view anyway.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-rgb.html

Clearly moving Wnw to me

[Sanibel]

Right now the islands look like they are in for a hit. At what intensity I don't know - but wait, in weak synoptics these things pull up quickly in front of the islands sometimes. Unless some of the previous ridge tendency is still entrenched.