Tropical Depression TEN: Discussions & Images

[SeaBrz_FL]

Obs from Cape Canaveral:

Glad to finally have the South Florida low move on. We had a very rainy 12-hours from that one, but are now enjoying clear skies and nice breezes in the middle of the current low overhead. In fact, it almost feels like autumn! YAY!

Our pressure has dropped to 1005 from 1010 over the past few hours.

Local Home Weather Station:

http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstat ... =KFLCAPEC3

Not sure what the models are showing, but Tom Terry (WX Met WFTV) mentioned in his last two forecasts this evening that he expects this low to cross the state and emerge in the Gulf. His words were: "And then lookout then."

Ahhhhh...life in the tropics

(edit: the weather station is a neighbor's, not mine.)

[Wx_Warrior]

uh.....not yet

[Dean4Storms]

Can plainly see the LLC with the low east of the Cape on this visible..........

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SATA ... 16vis.html

[chadtm80]

[Extremeweatherguy]

The EC Florida low now looks to be heading inland and is currently over Merritt Island moving WSW...or so it seems based on radar. I have a feeling that this will not be the "main" low in the long run though. Since it is weak, FL will probably kill it and a new low should form in the eastern Gulf. JMO.

[Dean4Storms]

The EC Florida low now looks to be heading inland and is currently over Merritt Island moving WSW...or so it seems based on radar. I have a feeling that this will not be the "main" low in the long run though. Since it is weak, FL will probably kill it and a new low should form in the eastern Gulf. JMO.

Hard to kill off a 1008mb low this time of year crossing Florida East to West. It may lose some LLC, but it would likely still be a low and once it hits that steamy GOM 85+ degree SST's, LOOKOUT!

[Wx_Warrior]

Most, except GFS, has said this all along..the EC low is the WRONG LOW

[SeaBrz_FL]

<big sigh> Cloudy and rainy again. That didn't last long.

[Dean4Storms]

Comon guys, the EC low has been shown by all the models, some just keep it broad and some close it off tighter, but they all trend it westward and then close it off in the eastern GOM.

[Wx_Warrior]

from pro met Greg Bostwick-KFDM 6 chief wx: Beaumont/Port Arthur (SETX)

Drier air is working in again from the northeast which will keep any rainfall out of our area Thursday and Friday. With the dry air, temperatures at night will be a little cooler as well.

In the eastern Gulf, an upper level low appears to be slowly working to the surface about 100 miles west-southwest of Fort Myers. This system should slowly develop as it moves westward and could become a tropical storm on Friday.

The eventual landfall will likely be from the middle Texas coast to around New Orleans with the time frame about daybreak Sunday. At this time, it is too early to tell how strong this system might be.

[btangy]

Although there is still a lot of baroclinic forcing, the thing to watch for is for the system to become vertically stacked off the W coast of FL. At which point, convection near the center will destroy the upper level potential vorticity max while generating low level vorticity (extratropical to tropical transition). Given the high amount of shear, this is the only possible route that I see for genesis to occur, and this will take some time to occur (a couple of days at least). You see this in the W Pacific sometimes.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The EC Florida low now looks to be heading inland and is currently over Merritt Island moving WSW...or so it seems based on radar. I have a feeling that this will not be the "main" low in the long run though. Since it is weak, FL will probably kill it and a new low should form in the eastern Gulf. JMO.

Hard to kill off a 1008mb low this time of year crossing Florida East to West. It may lose some LLC, but it would likely still be a low and once it hits that steamy GOM 85+ degree SST's, LOOKOUT!

This is just one small LLC center within a pretty broad overall low pressure area though. I think the small LLC (currently near Merritt Island) will likely fade overnight and then will either re-develop or be replaced somewhere else within the broad lower pressure area tomorrow. My best bet would be off the SW coast of Florida to the east of the ULL.

[Derek Ortt]

the SSTs are going to be largely irrelevant in the evolution of this feature. many hee are stuck on SST and completely ignore the atmosphere

You could have a surfac low over 25,000C SST, but if you had strong shear, nothing would develop (I am a tad bit high on the SST, but just want to emphasize a point)

[Air Force Met]

The EC Florida low now looks to be heading inland and is currently over Merritt Island moving WSW...or so it seems based on radar. I have a feeling that this will not be the "main" low in the long run though. Since it is weak, FL will probably kill it and a new low should form in the eastern Gulf. JMO.

Hard to kill off a 1008mb low this time of year crossing Florida East to West. It may lose some LLC, but it would likely still be a low and once it hits that steamy GOM 85+ degree SST's, LOOKOUT!

This is not going to be the main low. It is an swirl rotating around the overall circulation and it will eventually either 1) dissipate or 2) rotate into and become part of the main low. It will now become the dominate low. The exact same thing happened with Gabrielle. It had a nice LLC that was moving NNE but it was an eddy rotating around a larger center...and it eventually rotated back into the main circulation. It too had the lowest pressure and best definition on satellite at the time.

That is what this feature will do. The dynamics simply do not exist for this to become the main low.

[Air Force Met]

the SSTs are going to be largely irrelevant in the evolution of this feature. many hee are stuck on SST and completely ignore the atmosphere

You could have a surfac low over 25,000C SST, but if you had strong shear, nothing would develop (I am a tad bit high on the SST, but just want to emphasize a point)

Let's cut is back to just below boiling point...but the emphasis is still the same...

...And I have yet to look at one upper level chart (not a SHIPS output...not a SHEAR chart...not a whatever...)...one 200mb forecast from any model in the past day or so that shows any upper level pattern that is very favorable for the kind of deepening some on here are panicking over. Things looked much different earlier in the week. Now...the upper low tracks west with the system...rather than moving south and building a ridge over the top of it.

As I said earlier...many here...I think...expected this upper low to be gone already...and as you and I know...it doesn't work that way. These cold cores just don't disappear over night.

For those of you who doubt this...go look at Ingrid. I told you all last week it would still be dealing with that upper level low through mid-week. These buggers are persistent. That's why a few well placed TUTTS can kill a season.

[Wx_Warrior]

AF....please explain in layman's terms

[jhamps10]

OK right now, this feature is 800 miles ESE of Houston, TX, 500 Miles from New Orleans.

approxment movement speed to get it to New Orleans in 78 hours (as was in GFS) 6.5 MPH.

[Cape Verde]

I'm confused by all of this. Is this separating into two different systems, one mainly affects northern Florida, and the one we have to really be concerned about offshore SW Florida?

[jasons2k]

I'm about to take a break...after looking at the data and being on here all day I'm mentally zapped. I was going to post back on Sunday or Monday this would be the forecast challenge of the season and that seems to be more true today than ever.

Ironically, I have not changed my position since I first posted this morning that I think the area to watch is off the SW coast of FL. I'm just not concerned with the "center" up by MLB. Convection is continuing to build near the ULL an I expect this system to gradually stack & consolidate.

There is a camp of pro mets who disagree with this scenario. There is also a camp of pro mets who agree. I don't think we'll all be in the same boat until tomorrow when either it finally consolidates or the ULL pulls away and another "detached" LLC is established.

For track, I'm sticking with the Euro for now as the GFS has a habit of breaking down ridges early. For now that's my call & I'm sticking to it. Hopefully I won't go down in flames with JB, LC, & the others.

[Air Force Met]

AF....please explain in layman's terms

As of right now...the GFS...NAM...and EURO show Jerry...or whatever this is going to be...getting sheared (not to death...but some moderate shear at times...15 kts - 40 kts from the south...depending on the model) for most of its transit across the Gulf (by the upper low that spawned it) to wherever it finally makes landfall...probably SE Texas or Louisiana.