CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[Cellrock]

So is there any chance that ridge protecting Hou/Gal,Tx area may weaken or break down in the next 36 hours?

basically I am asking is Hou pretty safe now.EWG and AFM, I know you guys are from Houston Area,what do You thnk?

[abajan]

For the benefit of those who seem always willing to criticize the NHC, I provide this link to their 5-day track projection map archive: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2007/gr ... p_5W.shtml

Take special note of the Wednesday, August 15th, 11:00 AM projection (4 days ago). It's uncanny, IMO.

[Normandy]

Oh no.
Dean appears to be ramping up very fast over the last few IR frames.......BAD NEWS for Jamaica.

[MetSul Weather Center]

Everyone is paying attention to Dean, but have you seen Erin ? HPC still reports the storm as a tropical depression and the storm is gaining strenght at this hour over Oklahoma with some stations reporting tropical storm force sustained winds. Check this radar loop:

http://wdssii.nssl.noaa.gov/web/wdss2/p ... rloop.html

[Thunder44]

577
URNT15 KNHC 191028
AF304 0904A DEAN HDOB 05 20070819
101800 1752N 06615W 5125 05714 0325 -054 -075 099004 005 029 001 00
101830 1752N 06618W 5080 05782 0329 -053 -085 089007 008 038 000 00
101900 1751N 06621W 5045 05839 0334 -055 -094 081007 008 029 001 00
101930 1750N 06623W 4959 05974 0341 -061 -104 072005 006 035 000 00
102000 1750N 06626W 4866 06120 0349 -066 -115 070006 007 029 002 00
102030 1749N 06628W 4795 06236 0357 -076 -119 080006 006 031 001 00
102100 1749N 06630W 4737 06331 0363 -083 -123 074005 006 030 001 00
102130 1748N 06633W 4683 06420 0371 -087 -134 079006 006 035 000 00
102200 1748N 06635W 4621 06514 0372 -090 -146 065007 008 029 001 00
102230 1747N 06637W 4557 06629 0376 -097 -153 076007 007 032 000 00
102300 1747N 06640W 4496 06726 0382 -103 -159 078006 007 047 000 00
102330 1746N 06642W 4440 06824 0387 -111 -160 076006 007 034 000 00
102400 1746N 06644W 4391 06911 0393 -118 -159 079008 009 028 002 00
102430 1745N 06647W 4343 06996 0398 -125 -165 094006 007 028 002 00
102500 1745N 06649W 4296 07074 0404 -130 -171 088008 008 027 003 00
102530 1744N 06651W 4258 07145 0408 -135 -175 086008 008 028 002 00
102600 1743N 06654W 4221 07216 0412 -140 -181 073008 008 028 002 00
102630 1743N 06656W 4181 07288 0417 -145 -186 070006 007 029 001 00
102700 1742N 06658W 4146 07348 0421 -145 -198 071007 007 027 003 00
102730 1742N 06700W 4117 07402 0424 -150 -202 074007 008 029 002 00
$$

They are heading back out again

[baitism]

Everyone is paying attention to Dean, but have you seen Erin ? HPC still reports the storm as a tropical depression and the storm is gaining strenght at this hour over Oklahoma with some stations reporting tropical storm force sustained winds. Check this radar loop:

http://wdssii.nssl.noaa.gov/web/wdss2/p ... rloop.html

Well, this thread is titled "Major Hurricane DEAN: (11 PM page 245) Discussions, Analysis"

[Aquawind]

000
WTNT44 KNHC 190847
TCDAT4
HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
500 AM EDT SUN AUG 19 2007

THE LAST PENETRATION OF THE EYE OF THE HURRICANE BY THE AIR FORCE
HURRICANE HUNTERS WAS AT 0511 UTC. THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED A MINIMUM
PRESSURE OF 921 MB BY DROPSONDE AND PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 130
KT OUTBOUND IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
LESS DISTINCT EYE WITH SOME WARMING OF THE SURROUNDING CLOUD
TOPS...ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD PATTERN REMAINS VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH GOOD
SYMMETRY AND STRONG OUTFLOW OVER ALL QUADRANTS. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS KEPT AT 125 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...WHICH MAY
BE A LITTLE ON THE HIGH SIDE. IF INDEED DEAN HAS WEAKENED...THIS
IS LIKELY THE RESULT OF INNER CORE PROCESSES...AND IS PROBABLY ONLY
A SHORT-TERM CHANGE. THE LARGE-SCALE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC
ENVIRONMENT STILL APPEAR TO BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING...
SO....ASIDE FROM INNER-CORE-RELATED FLUCTUATIONS...DEAN HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO ATTAIN CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE STATUS OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE GFDL...
SHIPS...LGEM...AND FSSE GUIDANCE. INTERACTION WITH THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA WILL CAUSE WEAKENING...AND THE AMOUNT OF RE-STRENGTHENING
OF DEAN OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO DEPENDS MAINLY ON HOW
LONG THE SYSTEM STAYS OVER WATER BEFORE MAKING ITS FINAL LANDFALL.

ASIDE FROM THE TROCHOIDAL WOBBLES THAT ARE COMMON WITH SUCH INTENSE
HURRICANES...THE MOTION HAS BEEN BETWEEN WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST
OVER THE PAST 12-24 HOURS. INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/16. AS
THE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
CONTINUES TO SHIFT WESTWARD AHEAD OF DEAN...THE FUTURE TRACK OF THE
HURRICANE WILL BE CONTROLLED LARGELY BY A DEEP-LAYER HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A CONTINUED
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. ANY
CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST DURING THE FIRST
48 HOURS OR SO SHOULD BE CONSIDERED COSMETIC. WE HAVE SHIFTED THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD IN THE LATTER PART OF
THE PERIOD...BUT NOT AS FAR SOUTH AS SHOWN BY THE GFS...U.K. MET.
AND ECMWF MODELS.

IT IS IMPERATIVE NOT TO FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK.
CONSIDERING THE MARGIN OF ERROR OF NHC PREDICTIONS...THE CORE OF
THIS LARGE HURRICANE COULD EASILY BE 30-50 N MI ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE FORECAST TRACK DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO.

ANOTHER AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO MAKE A
POSITION AND INTENSITY FIX ON DEAN AROUND 1200 UTC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 19/0900Z 16.6N 73.4W 125 KT
12HR VT 19/1800Z 17.1N 76.0W 130 KT
24HR VT 20/0600Z 17.9N 79.5W 130 KT
36HR VT 20/1800Z 18.7N 83.0W 135 KT
48HR VT 21/0600Z 19.5N 86.6W 140 KT
72HR VT 22/0600Z 21.0N 93.5W 85 KT
96HR VT 23/0600Z 22.5N 99.0W 50 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 24/0600Z 23.5N 103.0W 25 KT...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BROWN

[baitism]

Unfortunately for Jamaica, this storm is about to explode again.

[Aquawind]

898
URNT15 KNHC 191048
AF304 0904A DEAN HDOB 07 20070819
103800 1729N 06754W 3930 07762 0453 -160 -246 072012 013 027 001 00
103830 1729N 06757W 3930 07766 0455 -160 -211 075011 011 026 004 00
103900 1728N 06800W 3931 07758 0455 -160 -190 077009 010 024 003 00
103930 1728N 06802W 3931 07761 0455 -162 -235 076009 010 024 002 00
104000 1727N 06805W 3930 07761 0455 -165 -221 084010 010 025 001 00
104030 1726N 06808W 3931 07762 0456 -165 -187 080011 011 025 002 00
104100 1726N 06811W 3931 07759 0455 -169 -230 079013 014 026 002 00
104130 1725N 06813W 3930 07763 0455 -170 -201 095013 014 027 002 00
104200 1724N 06816W 3932 07761 0456 -170 -191 109012 013 039 000 00
104230 1724N 06819W 3931 07765 0456 -167 -217 116014 014 035 000 00
104300 1723N 06821W 3930 07764 0457 -165 -183 123014 014 028 002 00
104330 1722N 06824W 3931 07760 0456 -170 -220 126013 013 029 001 00
104400 1722N 06827W 3931 07760 0456 -170 -205 124014 014 027 002 00
104430 1721N 06830W 3930 07764 0456 -170 -214 126014 014 026 002 00
104500 1720N 06832W 3931 07763 0456 -173 -201 129014 014 026 002 00
104530 1720N 06835W 3931 07766 0454 -174 -212 125015 015 026 003 00
104600 1719N 06838W 3931 07763 0454 -175 -195 127015 016 025 003 00
104630 1719N 06841W 3931 07762 0453 -178 -211 132015 015 025 002 00
104700 1718N 06843W 3930 07758 0454 -178 -206 136015 015 025 002 00
104730 1717N 06846W 3931 07755 0453 -175 -203 138017 017 024 003 00
$$

[TampaFl]

5:00am position: If it stays on that track, it appears Dean would move right over or just south of Kingston. Does not look good for Jamaica. Prayers & thoughts to all those on the island.

[Hurrilurker]

It's definitely looking more ragged than it was a day ago. However, it's going to be getting away from Hispaniola soon and in the last few IR frames you can see red starting to wrap around the eye again, that's not good.

And yes, the models and the NHC have done a superb job on the track of this storm thusfar. Really amazing when you consider what was possible a few decades ago, and how many factors are involved in something like that.

[wxwatcher91]

Thank you - I will see what I can find.

use: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm6.html

[Starburst]

The ULL sure is pulling in some moisture this morning

[sphelps8681]

What would need to take place for Dean to pull a Rita? How much can things change once in the gulf?

Thanks

[Aquawind]

URNT15 KNHC 191058
AF304 0904A DEAN HDOB 08 20070819
104800 1717N 06849W 3931 07757 0452 -175 -206 139017 018 026 002 00
104830 1716N 06852W 3931 07756 0452 -175 -212 136018 019 026 003 00
104900 1715N 06854W 3931 07757 0453 -174 -210 133018 019 027 002 00
104930 1715N 06857W 3931 07757 0454 -173 -212 135017 017 026 002 00
105000 1714N 06900W 3930 07759 0453 -175 -208 137015 016 027 002 00
105030 1713N 06902W 3930 07762 0454 -175 -207 138014 014 030 001 00
105100 1713N 06905W 3931 07762 0453 -176 -204 128013 014 026 002 00
105130 1712N 06908W 3931 07762 0453 -175 -187 136017 018 027 002 00
105200 1711N 06911W 3932 07753 0451 -173 -190 132017 017 027 002 00
105230 1711N 06913W 3931 07761 0451 -174 -203 137015 016 026 003 00
105300 1710N 06916W 3931 07753 0450 -172 -199 136015 016 026 003 00
105330 1709N 06919W 3932 07757 0449 -171 -192 132012 013 025 002 00
105400 1709N 06921W 3930 07756 0448 -172 -202 135012 013 025 002 00
105430 1708N 06924W 3931 07755 0448 -170 -204 140013 013 024 003 00
105500 1707N 06927W 3930 07753 0448 -170 -217 135014 014 025 003 00
105530 1707N 06929W 3930 07757 0448 -169 -218 133013 013 025 003 00
105600 1706N 06932W 3932 07747 0447 -169 -214 129015 017 025 003 00
105630 1705N 06935W 3931 07751 0445 -173 -205 117018 018 026 003 00
105700 1705N 06938W 3930 07756 0446 -170 -207 127019 019 024 003 00
105730 1704N 06940W 3930 07751 0446 -170 -199 125019 020 024 003 00
$$



286
URNT15 KNHC 191128
AF304 0904A DEAN HDOB 11 20070819
111800 1639N 07124W 6971 03191 0117 +083 +023 140043 046 025 006 00
111830 1638N 07126W 6974 03188 0132 +072 +036 136047 048 026 007 03
111900 1637N 07127W 6970 03191 0141 +061 +039 130048 049 029 007 03
111930 1636N 07128W 6969 03191 0144 +057 +057 132048 049 030 008 00
112000 1635N 07130W 6965 03197 0133 +065 +050 126047 048 030 008 03
112030 1633N 07131W 6967 03192 0130 +066 +055 128049 051 028 007 00
112100 1632N 07133W 6968 03189 0135 +063 +054 131050 051 027 007 00
112130 1631N 07134W 6968 03189 0130 +066 +055 132049 051 026 006 03
112200 1630N 07136W 6965 03190 0134 +065 +037 129048 049 027 006 03
112230 1630N 07138W 6975 03182 0132 +065 +052 135049 051 028 005 00
112300 1629N 07140W 6964 03193 0143 +054 +054 132046 049 028 013 00
112330 1629N 07142W 6985 03168 0144 +053 +053 140044 045 031 008 00
112400 1628N 07143W 6960 03195 0140 +056 +056 140045 046 029 008 00
112430 1627N 07145W 6975 03179 9990 +055 +999 142044 044 034 008 01
112500 1627N 07147W 6966 03189 9990 +052 +999 145043 043 038 050 05
112530 1626N 07149W 6971 03197 9990 +049 +999 151041 043 040 026 05
112600 1625N 07150W 6974 03182 9990 +058 +999 159037 039 038 009 01
112630 1624N 07151W 6967 03187 0124 +065 +065 162039 039 036 006 00
112700 1623N 07153W 6969 03183 0125 +065 +065 163039 039 035 006 00
112730 1622N 07154W 6968 03183 0112 +071 +071 159038 038 034 004 00
$$

[Aquawind]

06Z GFS Mexico.. 90hrs

[crownweather]

Wanted to mention that the FSU MM5 model has been run and you can find it at http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/mm5fsutc ... =Animation

[Nimbus]

setxweatherwatcher wrote:

am very new at this but I was looking at the surface model maps a little while ago and I am confused.

One way you can get an idea about how the steering pattern is evolving for a hurricane is to look at 30 frames of the water vapor loop.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastnhewv.html

The big picture is that there has been a large high over the plains and texas which has been rotating clockwise for over a week. This large high is pulling an upper level low which is rotating counter clockwise WSW. The ULL is expected to move west at the same speed as Dean which is traveling under another clockwise spinning high. In this scenario the high Dean is traveling under simply follows that ULL west into Mexico.

Seems reasonable to me. Unless we see that ULL slow down over Mexico or see the high Dean is traveling under push north and split the ridge there should not be any surprises.

All the posters this morning have covered the potential tragedy in Jamaica and the Yucatan so the pro mets probably don't feel they need to waste their time with insight that will be buried and unsearchable within an hour. I'm sure everyones heart felt prayers are being heard without being posted.

[Starburst]

Wanted to mention that the FSU MM5 model has been run and you can find it at http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/mm5fsutc ... =Animation

The MM5 moves it right into south Texas but I am not sure how reliable the model is.

[wx247]

If the models keep trending south Guatemala may have to issue a Hurricane Watch.