Invest 99L:Off E Coast-Discussions

[miamicanes177]

4:10pm and no advisory yet and NRL still says 99l. The NHC is remaining shockingly quiet on what could be a serious situation this weekend for the east coast. I hope especially the folks in NC/SC find some way to get the information they need. The NHC is reluctant to issue any track/intensity guidance to the public.

[Brent]

Interestingly, the latest early cycle track guidance lists the official TPC track (black line). The designation remains 99L (per NRL), but this trend may signal an upgrade. It initializes the system at 30 kts (35 mph).

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/

You should click on the first frame. A special tropical disturbance statement could arrive within the next 45 minutes.

Nice find, very interesting.

[cycloneye]

Lets see what they say in the TWO shortly.

[chadtm80]

Before we find out if this gets upgraded this evening or not, thought it would be a good time to remind everyone of good old rule number 12..

12. Storm2K.org does not allow personal attacks and/or personal insults of any kind directed to The National Hurricane Center, it’s staff or any other professional weather organization for that matter. While one may disagree it is very important we keep respecting the weather professionals and their opinions. We are expecting all members to act professionally at all times.

[HURAKAN]

871
ABNT20 KNHC 052115
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT WED SEP 5 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE REMNANTS OF FELIX ARE LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN BELIZE AND EASTERN
GUATEMALA...MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA THAT COULD
RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
RE-DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED.

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED ABOUT
375 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA HAS NOT YET ACQUIRED THE
CHARACTERISTICS OF A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE. MOST OF THE
ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS EAST OF THE CENTER WHERE WINDS
TO NEAR GALE FORCE ARE OCCURRING. THE SYSTEM IS INTERACTING WITH
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE AS THE LOW MOVES SLOWLY AND ERRATICALLY...AND
A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER BEVEN

[Air Force Met]

Interestingly, the latest early cycle track guidance lists the official TPC track (black line). The designation remains 99L (per NRL), but this trend may signal an upgrade. It initializes the system at 30 kts (35 mph).

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/

You should click on the first frame. A special tropical disturbance statement could arrive within the next 45 minutes.

Nice find, very interesting.

I noticed that earlier as well. Wasn't real sure what to make of it.

[Stormcenter]

4:10pm and no advisory yet and NRL still says 99l. The NHC is remaining shockingly quiet on what could be a serious situation this weekend for the east coast. I hope especially the folks in NC/SC find some way to get the information they need. The NHC is reluctant to issue any track/intensity guidance to the public.

Why would the NHC be reluctant to issue any track/intensity guildance to the public?
Isn't that their job. Anyway believe me this will NOT sneek up on anyone if is does get going and develops. We are talking about the U.S. East coast here now. The media would eat this up. This is just not my opinion but a fact.

[RL3AO]

4:10pm and no advisory yet and NRL still says 99l. The NHC is remaining shockingly quiet on what could be a serious situation this weekend for the east coast. I hope especially the folks in NC/SC find some way to get the information they need. The NHC is reluctant to issue any track/intensity guidance to the public.

Um...people know.

http://www.wral.com/

[Brent]

This is just a mess, really.

[Ed Mahmoud]

TWOAT


snip

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED ABOUT
375 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA HAS NOT YET ACQUIRED THE
CHARACTERISTICS OF A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE. MOST OF THE
ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS EAST OF THE CENTER WHERE WINDS
TO NEAR GALE FORCE ARE OCCURRING. THE SYSTEM IS INTERACTING WITH
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE AS THE LOW MOVES SLOWLY AND ERRATICALLY...AND
A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

[GeneratorPower]

TWOAT


snip

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED ABOUT
375 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA HAS NOT YET ACQUIRED THE
CHARACTERISTICS OF A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE. MOST OF THE
ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS EAST OF THE CENTER WHERE WINDS
TO NEAR GALE FORCE ARE OCCURRING. THE SYSTEM IS INTERACTING WITH
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE AS THE LOW MOVES SLOWLY AND ERRATICALLY...AND
A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

Thank you SO much for using the word "snip". Saved me from banging my head on the table.

[Stormcenter]

871
ABNT20 KNHC 052115
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT WED SEP 5 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE REMNANTS OF FELIX ARE LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN BELIZE AND EASTERN
GUATEMALA...MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA THAT COULD
RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.
RE-DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED.

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA CENTERED ABOUT
375 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA HAS NOT YET ACQUIRED THE
CHARACTERISTICS OF A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE. MOST OF THE
ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS EAST OF THE CENTER WHERE WINDS
TO NEAR GALE FORCE ARE OCCURRING. THE SYSTEM IS INTERACTING WITH
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE AS THE LOW MOVES SLOWLY AND ERRATICALLY...AND
A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER BEVEN

No surprise whatsoever here. IMO
The system does not look as impressive as
some on this board think right now. Now in time
it may but for now it's not. Thanks again to our
friend Mr. Shear.

[txwatcher91]

From what I can tell on WV, it appears that the dry air is becoming less and less. This could allow it to begin to organize better with the DMAX. You can even see that a few clouds popped up in the dry air, possibly indicating that it is becoming more unstable near 99l.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

[ConvergenceZone]

Hmm, they mention in the TWO that it may form in the next couple of days and conditions aren't currently favorable for development.


Doesn't sound like they are very bullish on any development anytime soon. They sounded more bullish earlier...

[loro-rojo]

I would guess there is some heated debate at the NHC right now.

Hehe, I can imagine them sitting around a table like on Crossfire on CNN....

Would be nice if they had video of the in-house Ivan II debate:

AFTER CONSIDERABLE AND SOMETIMES ANIMATED IN-HOUSE DISCUSSION OF THE
DEMISE OF IVAN...IN THE MIDST OF A LOW-PRESSURE AND SURFACE FRONTAL
SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER HAS DECIDED TO CALL THE TROPICAL CYCLONE NOW OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVAN. WHILE DEBATE WILL SURELY
CONTINUE HERE AND ELSEWHERE...THIS DECISION WAS BASED PRIMARILY ON
THE REASONABLE CONTINUITY OBSERVED IN THE ANALYSIS OF THE SURFACE
AND LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION.

"Sometimes animated"? Heh. Makes me think of the old SNL Point/Counterpoint - I can hear it now: "Avila, you ignorant slut".

Actually... a couple of weeks ago PBS ( I believe) had a hurricane special, and they mostly focused on the 2004 season. During the documentary, they showed some of the footage inside the NHC of whether or not Ivan II was to be named Ivan. The debate was very heated, and some metereologist were cutting each other off sentence's, and some got upset. Max Mayfield mostly just sat on the back while the other experts used laser pointers, graphs and maps to prove or disprove thier point. They were mostly debating the technical definition of the term a 'reminant low'... The video is out there, just don't know were we could get some raw footage of it.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

POST IS NOT official. NOT sound data/reasoning. See
National Hurricane Center for Official Forecast.

This is still having that comma shape so it is extratropical
not tropical. It should transition by tomorrow.

According to the models, North Carolina has the biggest
threat from this system. And it will be a strong hurricane
according to the promets. North carolina should
prepare for a cat 2 or higher.

[CrazyC83]

Actually... a couple of weeks ago PBS ( I believe) had a hurricane special, and they mostly focused on the 2004 season. During the documentary, they showed some of the footage inside the NHC of whether or not Ivan II was to be named Ivan. The debate was very heated, and some metereologist were cutting each other off sentence's, and some got upset. Max Mayfield mostly just sat on the back while the other experts used laser pointers, graphs and maps to prove or disprove thier point. They were mostly debating the technical definition of the term a 'reminant low'... The video is out there, just don't know were we could get some raw footage of it.

I'm sure there were mixed responses from the people at the NHC over this one as well. Some were probably thinking it was fully tropical (like I think), a few thought it was subtropical and others thought it was still extratropical (which was what they decided on). I'm not sure where the ultimate decision comes from?

[cycloneye]

The only way that this will be upgraded before recon goes tommorow afternoon,is that the system gets better organized overnight,with the low beneath the convection.

[HURAKAN]

GUSTAV (SUBTROPICAL)
URNT12 KNHC 091736 CCA
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 09/1736Z
B. 31 DEG 32 MIN N
74 DEG 44 MIN W
C. 850 MB 1433 M
D. 40 KT
E. 107 DEG 51 NM
F. 227 DEG 53 KT
G. 119 DEG 094 NM
H. 1002 MB
I. 15 C/ 1576 M
J. 18 C/ 1573 M
K. 15 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1 345/08
O. .1 / 4NM
P. AF966 0208A GUSTAV OB 21
MAX FL WIND 53 KT SE QUAD 1707Z.

99L (NON-TROPICAL)
URNT12 KNHC 052059
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL992007
A. 05/20:25:40Z
B. 29 deg 28 min N
070 deg 14 min W
C. NA mb 3139 m
D. 33 kt
E. 092 deg 066 nm
F. 232 deg 033 kt
G. 092 deg 071 nm
H. 1006 mb
I. 9 C/ 3050 m
J. 10 C/ 3046 m
K. 4 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134 / 0
O. 0.02 / 9 nm
P. AF302 01GGA INVST OB 13
MAX FL WIND 33 KT SE QUAD 20:02:20 Z
MAX FL TEMP 11 C, 91 / 15NM

You can't argue when the evidence is in front of you. Gabrielle will come out of this, but it will not be today.

[RL3AO]

I do want to add they were 1500m higher than with Gustav. But I think the NHC made the correct call.