Tropical Depression HUMBERTO Discussion & Images

[Stormcenter]

Well here is another satellite (as if we need one) loop of
Humberto. The obvious thing to note here is the eastward shift of
the entire system in the last few hours. You really can't miss noticing it.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... uration=12

[HouTXmetro]

Well one thing for sure is that the Western Flank is crumblng as I type. I take it DWG could be right about Houston seeing little rainfall at this rate.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Dr. Lyons just cleared most of Galveston County, and all of metro Houston, from threat of tropical storm force winds. Ditto flood thread.



Normally, a TS would be exciting, but it has been awfully wet this summer.


Lyon also said Humberto is weakening.

[bbadon]

if we get another blow up of intense covection over the center it could just push this thing over the edge. If you remember last night the convection blossomed overnight

[Ed Mahmoud]

Part of it is that Western part of center is fading, but looking on radar a slow NE drift.

[Thunder44]

I think the reason why NHC didn't upgrade the winds at 8pm, because they haven't been surface obs that supports winds anywhere near 60mph. The highest wind reported in the last hour has been 31kts sustained and 35kts gust at buoy GPST2:

http://ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search.php? ... 150&time=3

It's just a very well organized storm radar.

[mattpetre]

if we get another blow up of intense covection over the center it could just push this thing over the edge. If you remember last night the convection blossomed overnight

Yes, this must get inland before tomorrow morning or someone will probably have a bigger storm on their hands...

One of the biggest obstacles I have to "seeing" the motion of these things is the fact that there are all sorts of optical illusions that come into play. After staring at this for almost 12 hrs straight now, it may be best if I just listen to others on where it's headed... "Please keep me informed."

[greg_kfdm_tv]

I have the center at 171 degrees/29 nautical miles from Galveston.

Still moving to the north-northeast about 6 mph. Drier air is eroding the west side quite a bit at this time.

[KatDaddy]

The Houston-Galveston area dodged another storm. Its headed NE toward Sabine Pass.

[mattpetre]

The Houston-Galveston area dodged another storm. Its headed NE toward Sabine Pass.

I think still a bit premature, but looking more probable.

[Downdraft]

Measuring radial velocity on GR2 Analyst the highest winds I'm seeing are 50kts at 136 degrees from the Houston NEXRAD site and 36.36nm out.

[Stormcenter]

Well if the western side of the storm is "eroding" it sure is hard to tell from this radar
observation. It continues to look impressive and not moving much at all. IMO

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

[lrak]

its more like ENE movement based on Houston radar

More time over water

[Stormcenter]

its more like ENE movement based on Houston radar

More time over water

Can you please post the link. Thanks!

[jasons2k]

If anything forward speed is now increasing and I expect this to make LF well east of the official LF forecast point, somewhere between Sea Rim St. Park and Sabine Pass. The Houston Metro area really lucked-out with this one. Bad news for our friends over in Port Arthur, etc.

[mattpetre]

WOW! TWC has given the all clear for Houston. I just don't feel 100% on this, but won't knock it as it will probably verify. Last tropical update all they talked about were pretty much the positive benefits of this storm in precipitation to MS/AL/GA... I thought this was going to scoot back out into the GOM before GA?? Well, I'm not letting my guard down about a more NW jog until after midnight at least. I believe it, but just can't go to sleep on it yet.

[cpdaman]

Lyon also said Humberto is weakening.

maybe lyons didn't see the last hour of infared with the t'storms popping

otherwise i don't know he is good but i also remember his saying

there is nothing going on in the gulf, then 8 hours later they had tropical storm erin so weakening i don't think so

it was moving NNE now it appears to be ENE the little trough is trying to nudge it sideways IMO

[Stormcenter]

If anything forward speed is now increasing and I expect this to make LF well east of the official LF forecast point, somewhere between Sea Rim St. Park and Sabine Pass. The Houston Metro area really lucked-out with this one. Bad news for our friends over in Port Arthur, etc.

Well I guess we all see things differently but the "increase" in forward I
don't see that yet but I'm not saying it's not happening. I just don't see it.
Does anyone else see an increase in forward speed?

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

[jasons2k]

[TampaFl]

7 PM CDT Position - Map courtesy BoatUSA: