Ex Tropical Depression KAREN: Discussions & Images

[BigA]

Does anyone know what the odds are that Karen will enter a region of less shear if it can survive this shear intact to some extent? Its a bit of a ways down the road, but if it weakens, and then turns more west, the question could be relevant.

[CrazyC83]

Does anyone know what the odds are that Karen will enter a region of less shear if it can survive this shear intact to some extent? Its a bit of a ways down the road, but if it weakens, and then turns more west, the question could be relevant.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html suggests strengthening shear straight in its path, but if the trends continue, perhaps within 48-72 hours it could be back in a low-shear environment as shear has dropped dramatically north of 20°N, and the trends are that shear is slowly weakening as far south as 17°N while the upper-level trough dips farther south. If it is a fish, it could easily survive and restrengthen. The path to the islands has the shear in the way though...

It seems to be doing quite well with the 50 kt shear overhead (it is still a near-hurricane even with it), so the maximum shear is probably as we speak or in the next 12 hours. However, moderate to heavy shear should continue through 48 hours.

[BigA]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html suggests strengthening shear straight in its path, but if the trends continue, perhaps within 48-72 hours it could be back in a low-shear environment as shear has dropped dramatically north of 20°N. If it is a fish, it could easily survive and restrengthen. The path to the islands has the shear in the way though...

It seems to be doing quite well with the 50 kt shear overhead (it is still a near-hurricane even with it), so the maximum shear is probably as we speak or in the next 12 hours.

Thank you for the prompt response. I appreciate it. I was thinking more of a scenario, however, where Karen moves north of the islands, and then bends back to the west-northwest. If it survives, I wonder if that area would be condusive to restrengthening.

[CrazyC83]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html suggests strengthening shear straight in its path, but if the trends continue, perhaps within 48-72 hours it could be back in a low-shear environment as shear has dropped dramatically north of 20°N. If it is a fish, it could easily survive and restrengthen. The path to the islands has the shear in the way though...

It seems to be doing quite well with the 50 kt shear overhead (it is still a near-hurricane even with it), so the maximum shear is probably as we speak or in the next 12 hours.

Thank you for the prompt response. I appreciate it. I was thinking more of a scenario, however, where Karen moves north of the islands, and then bends back to the west-northwest. If it survives, I wonder if that area would be condusive to restrengthening.

That is a more difficult scenario to predict as it depends on how fast the shear abates there. However, the entire path there has at least moderate shear (related to ex-97L), and heavy to extreme shear peaking at about 40 kt for at least 48 hours. It will be harder for Karen to survive as much more than a tropical depression in that shear.

[Coredesat]

The IR2 loop is interesting; it shows the low clouds associated with the surface circulation moving westward as the convection is sheared and appears to be moving northward. It looks almost as if Karen is decoupling:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Karen the stronger sister to Ingrid.

[Ed Mahmoud]

The IR2 loop is interesting; it shows the low clouds associated with the surface circulation moving westward as the convection is sheared and appears to be moving northward. It looks almost as if Karen is decoupling:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html

Well, Ingrid didn't make it as I thought, a decouple, cruise Westward through/under the trough, then come back and threaten the US.


Maybe Karen will.

[bwhorton2007]

Yeah Ed if she did make it half the people on this board would be eating crow,but seriously i don't expect it!

[CrazyC83]

New convection firing on the SW quadrant...does that mean anything?

[bwhorton2007]

crazyC83,it means she a fighter just like a formentioned storm but a bigger and tougher one at that.And i might add who knows what we might have if this shear was not here
probably a certified monster. Now let the post bashing begin!

[CrazyC83]

crazyC83,it means she a fighter just like a formentioned storm but a bigger and tougher one at that.And i might add who knows what we might have if this shear was not here
probably a certified monster. Now let the post bashing begin!

Yeah who knows what will happen if she can clear the TUTT...it is like someone having an asthma attack yet still being able to be productive at the same time...think of that analogy for Karen...

[CrazyC83]

Looking at the maps, if Karen can get to about 23N/56W (slightly west of NW), she will have very little shear and high heat content to deal with. That could get interesting there...

[deltadog03]

Karen is exposed....LOL

[CrazyC83]

Due to the sheared deep convection, I think it is stronger than it appears in that convection. Alberto last year got to 60 kt and was never above T2.5 due to being sheared significantly.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/adt/a ... O-list.txt

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Wow look at that 30 knot shear destroy this huge system. The ULL's this year reminds me of 97. They are monsters from the under world. This thing will be lucky to be a depressoin in 48 hour if this keep up.

[alan1961]

Nice try karen..come back another year..goodbye

[HenkL]

URNT15 KWBC 270953
NOAA2 0212A KAREN HDOB 07 20070927
093400 1346N 05034W 5598 04999 0097 +001 -128 121003 004 021 000 00
093500 1347N 05029W 5614 04978 0106 -001 -145 123003 004 019 000 00
093600 1347N 05024W 5801 04714 0108 +012 -072 037004 005 018 000 00
093700 1347N 05019W 6012 04428 0121 +026 -101 010006 007 020 000 00
093800 1347N 05015W 6231 04137 0125 +042 -069 359010 011 017 000 00
093900 1347N 05010W 6455 03848 0125 +055 +012 037013 014 018 000 00
094000 1347N 05006W 6658 03590 0122 +068 +040 049016 017 017 000 03
094100 1347N 05002W 6864 03340 0123 +086 +031 051019 019 017 000 00
094200 1346N 04957W 7084 03081 0127 +100 +051 054020 021 020 000 00
094300 1346N 04953W 7296 02834 0126 +113 +083 053023 024 013 000 00
094400 1346N 04949W 7516 02582 0130 +127 +068 048023 025 015 000 00
094500 1346N 04945W 7743 02329 0131 +138 +080 054021 021 011 000 00
094600 1346N 04941W 7809 02254 0130 +143 +075 047024 024 010 000 00
094700 1345N 04938W 7808 02256 0130 +143 +074 047026 026 011 000 00
094800 1345N 04934W 7809 02256 0132 +139 +085 052023 026 010 000 00
094900 1345N 04930W 7809 02254 0131 +139 +087 055022 023 009 000 00
095000 1345N 04927W 7809 02253 0129 +141 +089 053021 022 007 000 00
095100 1344N 04923W 7809 02254 0131 +140 +086 047021 022 015 000 00
095200 1344N 04919W 7806 02257 0129 +140 +087 044023 023 019 000 00
095300 1344N 04916W 7805 02259 0129 +140 +085 044027 028 022 000 00

Plane descended to operational level (780 hPa), some 150 miles west of the center.

[HURAKAN]

Have you noticed that NRL maps already reflect yesterday's hurricane status!!!

[Thunder44]

Nice try karen..come back another year..goodbye

Don't say goodbye yet. Unlike Ingrid, Karen is more likely to survive the windshear, due to the large size of circulation and strength.

[HenkL]

URNT15 KWBC 271013
NOAA2 0212A KAREN HDOB 08 20070927
095400 1344N 04912W 7802 02264 0137 +127 +114 046023 028 027 001 00
095500 1344N 04908W 7805 02257 0130 +140 +081 044027 028 025 000 00
095600 1344N 04904W 7805 02256 0132 +136 +100 047025 026 024 000 00
095700 1343N 04901W 7806 02257 0129 +138 +100 045024 024 028 000 00
095800 1343N 04857W 7806 02256 0130 +137 +094 046025 025 033 000 00
095900 1343N 04853W 7807 02255 0133 +132 +110 042021 024 030 000 00
100000 1342N 04849W 7806 02255 0129 +131 +131 045020 024 025 000 00
100100 1341N 04845W 7809 02250 0127 +133 +129 050020 021 023 000 00
100200 1341N 04842W 7810 02248 0128 +132 +126 044019 021 019 000 00
100300 1340N 04838W 7809 02247 0124 +136 +118 038022 023 019 000 00
100400 1339N 04834W 7811 02248 0129 +131 +123 041022 023 026 000 00
100500 1339N 04830W 7810 02249 0124 +137 +119 036023 024 027 000 00
100600 1338N 04826W 7811 02246 0117 +144 +114 028020 022 025 000 00
100700 1337N 04823W 7810 02248 0122 +138 +114 032023 025 028 000 00
100800 1337N 04819W 7809 02246 0122 +138 +106 034023 025 034 001 00
100900 1336N 04815W 7810 02245 0122 +135 +118 043022 025 029 000 00
101000 1336N 04811W 7809 02248 0124 +131 +130 043024 025 026 000 00
101100 1335N 04807W 7810 02246 0124 +130 +130 041022 028 031 001 00
101200 1334N 04804W 7810 02243 0120 +133 +132 036022 025 036 003 00
101300 1334N 04800W 7810 02242 0121 +131 +131 035021 022 030 002 00