CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[isobar5]

I am no pro met by any means but to my untrained eye it appears the ULL is getting stronger and actually is trying to become something itself and has come to a crawl in the central gulf. That's just what I see. Maybe someone else can explain any implications.

[HURAKAN]

[WindRunner]

UZNT13 KNHC 191436
XXAA 69147 99165 70751 04465 99979 25205 27074 00690 ///// /////
92495 21606 29604 85228 19022 31100 70880 08000 31585 88999 77999
31313 09608 81350
61616 AF304 0904A DEAN OB 09
62626 EYEWALL 000 SPL 1646N07502W 1354 MBL WND 28598 AEV 00000 DL
M WND 30596 978714 WL150 27592 079 =
XXBB 69148 99165 70751 04465 00979 25205 11948 22406 22850 19022
33753 14016 44742 13825 55712 13800 66698 06800
21212 00979 27074 11971 27095 22963 28095 33951 28109 44948 28108
55941 29096 66932 29106 77914 29598 88900 30611 99890 30599 11859
31102 22850 31100 33698 31584
31313 09608 81350
61616 AF304 0904A DEAN OB 09
62626 EYEWALL 000 SPL 1646N07502W 1354 MBL WND 28598 AEV 00000 DL
M WND 30596 978714 WL150 27592 079 =


Eyewall drop in the southern part of the eye, winds 74kts from due west with a pressure of 979mb. Don't know which eyewall it is, though.

Wish I could, HURAKAN, but I'm pulling out the door as we speak . . .

[HURAKAN]

827
URNT15 KNHC 191458
AF304 0904A DEAN HDOB 32 20070819
144800 1749N 07518W 6970 03103 0016 +081 +069 085083 083 053 008 00
144830 1749N 07521W 6968 03109 0014 +084 +065 085082 082 052 006 00
144900 1749N 07523W 6970 03106 0013 +086 +067 081083 084 052 006 00
144930 1749N 07526W 6969 03111 0014 +086 +074 076080 082 052 005 00
145000 1749N 07529W 6971 03112 0021 +081 +074 078080 080 052 005 03
145030 1749N 07531W 6967 03115 0026 +080 +074 077079 080 052 005 00
145100 1749N 07534W 6967 03116 0027 +080 +075 074079 080 052 005 00
145130 1749N 07536W 6968 03118 0032 +076 +076 075078 079 051 005 00
145200 1749N 07539W 6971 03118 0029 +082 +073 075078 078 051 005 00
145230 1749N 07541W 6969 03122 0036 +078 +071 072079 079 052 006 00
145300 1749N 07544W 6969 03122 0037 +080 +069 072079 080 052 005 00
145330 1749N 07544W 6969 03122 0039 +078 +067 071079 080 053 002 00
145400 1749N 07549W 6972 03123 0035 +085 +065 067079 079 050 000 03
145430 1749N 07551W 6967 03132 0033 +087 +068 066078 079 042 005 00
145500 1749N 07554W 6972 03129 0035 +089 +066 067078 078 041 006 00
145530 1749N 07556W 6967 03137 0040 +085 +069 067078 078 042 005 00
145600 1749N 07559W 6967 03138 0040 +087 +069 066074 075 039 006 00
145630 1749N 07601W 6970 03136 0038 +089 +070 068073 074 040 005 00
145700 1749N 07604W 6968 03138 0049 +080 +080 067077 078 040 005 00
145730 1749N 07606W 6968 03137 0069 +069 +069 060070 072 040 007 00
$$

[JenBayles]

I am no pro met by any means but to my untrained eye it appears the ULL is getting stronger and actually is trying to become something itself and has come to a crawl in the central gulf. That's just what I see. Maybe someone else can explain any implications.

Been wondering the same thing myself this morning. Any comments from the Pros?

[ROCK]

I am no pro met by any means but to my untrained eye it appears the ULL is getting stronger and actually is trying to become something itself and has come to a crawl in the central gulf. That's just what I see. Maybe someone else can explain any implications.

Been wondering the same thing myself this morning. Any comments from the Pros?

I a not a pro but that ULL would need to sit awhile in order to drill down to the surface....

[NCSUwpack]

Not yet. I'm going to call here in a little bit. I should have a report from them in about an hour.

[rainman]

any thoughts of the nam taking it up to brownsville? also if you look at the gfs ensembles the operational gfs is a southern outlier. thoughts?

[canetracker]

I am no pro met by any means but to my untrained eye it appears the ULL is getting stronger and actually is trying to become something itself and has come to a crawl in the central gulf. That's just what I see. Maybe someone else can explain any implications.

Been wondering the same thing myself this morning. Any comments from the Pros?

I a not a pro but that ULL would need to sit awhile in order to drill down to the surface....

I don't think it will spin down. The concern here is if it feels the effect of the high and slows or stalls. No pro mets have chimed in on it yet.

[Johnny]

That looks more like Mexico to me Portastorm but the effects would definately be felt in South, Texas.

[HURAKAN]

[Derek Ortt]

Belize also need a watch, at least to Belize city

[flwxwatcher]

06 Z GFS Ensemble track guidance
http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/

[Derek Ortt]

he does not permit direct access to the website, you can only access it through the main page

[Sanibel]

Just my personal opinion not endorsed by Storm2k:


I think it would be reasonable to say, barring any freak turn NW, that the eye should pass offshore south of Jamaica. The island is going to get lashed with a portion of the inner hurricane core, but it should be spared the worst of the eye effects. It would take a hard turn soon to hit the island directly, and the current track seems to be consistent.

Here in SW Florida I could see the top of a thunderhead south of the island sheared east to west in the steering flow guiding Dean. Surface winds today are unusually brisk and steady from the east under sunshine. That's a solid ridge that has probably already taken Dean over from the Atlantic ridge. GFS looks sharp this time. I doubted Gilbert II, but GFS beat me this time. Its first runs were good.

[HURAKAN]

331
URNT15 KNHC 191508
AF304 0904A DEAN HDOB 33 20070819
145800 1749N 07608W 6970 03137 0060 +074 +074 062071 072 040 007 00
145830 1749N 07611W 6969 03145 0065 +075 +075 064074 075 999 999 03
145900 1747N 07612W 6969 03146 0066 +074 +074 064070 072 999 999 03
145930 1746N 07611W 6978 03123 0054 +077 +077 066068 070 038 005 00
150000 1745N 07609W 6967 03137 0045 +082 +079 066065 066 040 006 00
150030 1743N 07608W 6967 03135 0042 +085 +074 062068 069 040 005 00
150100 1742N 07607W 6972 03131 0042 +082 +082 060068 069 040 005 00
150130 1741N 07606W 6964 03135 0036 +086 +071 060068 069 041 007 03
150200 1740N 07605W 6967 03130 0028 +090 +067 056066 067 043 007 00
150230 1738N 07604W 6967 03129 0041 +077 +077 048066 068 046 048 03
150300 1736N 07604W 6975 03115 0036 +080 +080 056071 074 047 027 03
150330 1736N 07604W 6975 03115 0034 +081 +079 056072 073 047 027 03
150400 1734N 07602W 6973 03116 0031 +081 +081 054068 069 042 005 03
150430 1733N 07600W 6968 03120 0027 +082 +077 054068 068 044 006 00
150500 1733N 07559W 6969 03115 0024 +081 +077 056068 069 045 007 00
150530 1732N 07558W 6969 03114 0025 +079 +078 055068 069 049 005 00
150600 1731N 07556W 6968 03112 0017 +081 +077 054069 069 049 006 00
150630 1730N 07555W 6968 03106 0015 +081 +070 055070 070 054 008 00
150700 1729N 07554W 6969 03100 0003 +086 +073 055073 076 056 005 00
150730 1728N 07553W 6967 03095 9996 +088 +070 054075 075 051 007 00
$$

[Derek Ortt]

worst of the winds are north of the eye... this needs to stay at least 40 miles offshore to prevent at least a repeat of Ivan

[jlauderdal]

106 FM Jamaica radio. Streams are overloaded, but keep trying and you might get in.

http://www.go-jamaica.com/power/

im in, have been in since yesterday, will post anything of significant, i wont be posting everytime a tree is blown down or there is flooding, lol.

[HURAKAN]

[marcane_1973]

Been listening to power 106 in Jamaica and a report just came in a little while ago that a road near the coast was already starting to flood because of the storm surge. The southern coast of the Island is going to get slammed hard I'm afraid since they will be getting the outer northern eyewall. Going to be their worst storm surge I bet in a long time. I heard there were quite a few people that were staying on the southern coast. I know there is going to be fatalities but I sure hope not many.