TD INGRID: Discussions & Images - Last Advisory

[Sanibel]

Well, it is moving so slowly that we can wait until tomorrow to tell. Plenty of time with this one.

[gatorcane]

Looks like that ridge near Bermuda has strengthened. You would think this could impact the islands with this steering flow:

Note this flow could bring it to the SE US as well. Of course this flow should change with time (hopefully).

[Gustywind]

Doesnt look like a fish to me!

Waouw, hope this trend doesn't continues for us in the islands....my island of Guadeloupe seems on a yellow card...all the northen too....not good news.... the ridge will be strong enough to allow a south track beetween 14 to 19n right now??!!!!

[bvigal]

:wave: Hi Sanibel! You make a good point, about this can wait. Right now I think all attention is on Texas coast, and 90L may get classed before 91L does.

[chrisnnavarre]

:wave: Hi Sanibel! You make a good point, about this can wait. Right now I think all attention is on Texas coast, and 90L may get classed before 91L does.

O' Great that would make this guy Ivan, oh sorry I mean Issac...

[Gustywind]

HI BVigal what do you tkink about this synopsis with this south trend for this latest runs for 91L?

[chris_fit]

Now that I think about it... I have a feeling this could be another Dean/Felix. Same setup pretty much. Models have already "trended" south, and have been wrong about WNW/NW movement in the past few days. I Don't think it's something for SE USA to worry about just yet. Deja Vu all over again.

The islands though, another story.

[windstorm99]

Now that I think about it... I have a feeling this could be another Dean/Felix. Same setup pretty much. Models have already "trended" south, and have been wrong about WNW/NW movement in the past few days. I Don't think it's something for SE USA to worry about just yet. Deja Vu all over again.

The islands though, another story.

New CMC also added to the pack a tad futher south.

[bvigal]

HI BVigal what do you tkink about this synopsis with this south trend for this latest runs for 91L?

Hello Gusty!! I want to see some model data newer than 13hrs. I think it's impossible to draw any conclusions from this old stuff, because timing of ridge/weakness is so critical to track.

[Windsurfer_NYC]

12Z model run still shows 91L and 30kts

[chrisnnavarre]

Now that I think about it... I have a feeling this could be another Dean/Felix. Same setup pretty much. Models have already "trended" south, and have been wrong about WNW/NW movement in the past few days. I Don't think it's something for SE USA to worry about just yet. Deja Vu all over again.

The islands though, another story.

On problem is that this one I think this one is at a higher LAT than Felix or Dean. Didn't they start down around 10N?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

12Z model run still shows 91L and 30kts

Can a pro tell me what could be the reasoning behind this?

[MiamiensisWx]

I don't think the 5:30 a.m. EDT TWO was posted:

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT 1150 MILES EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED...AND CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TO FORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AROUND 10 MPH.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWOAT+shtml/120920.shtml

Code red for 90L and 91L!

[windstorm99]

Lastest TPC coming in line with the models...Futher north then yesterday.

[Dean4Storms]

I think we got a TD here already or the most organized looking TW I've ever seen.

This does appear to be a northern Islands threat or a very near miss just to the north.


I think we see this classified a TD at 11am.

[chris_fit]

Now that I think about it... I have a feeling this could be another Dean/Felix. Same setup pretty much. Models have already "trended" south, and have been wrong about WNW/NW movement in the past few days. I Don't think it's something for SE USA to worry about just yet. Deja Vu all over again.

The islands though, another story.

On problem is that this one I think this one is at a higher LAT than Felix or Dean. Didn't they start down around 10N?

That is a valid argument, however, if most of the models curve it due west at the end of the runs, I see no reason for them to continue to be "right" of actual track and have the storm actually move south of due west for a little bit. That Ridge is really holding it's own this year.

[chris_fit]

WXMAN57...

Can you provide one of those uber close up images?

[hurricanetrack]

Next two names are Humberto and Ingrid. Which one will get which? Hmm...time will tell!

[windstorm99]

WXMAN57...

Can you provide one of those uber close up images?

Close up visible image...

[Gustywind]

HI BVigal what do you tkink about this synopsis with this south trend for this latest runs for 91L?

Hello Gusty!! I want to see some model data newer than 13hrs. I think it's impossible to draw any conclusions from this old stuff, because timing of ridge/weakness is so critical to track.

Absolutely agree , he have plenty of time for that , but i woud prefer it goes fishing far way of the islands, whereas the latest trend souther...put some lights incertitudes on the carib hope it won't a serious thing..time will tell , we should continue to monitor this carefully as usual as time of the year :D See you sonn