Tropical Depression LORENZO: Discussions & Images

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 271909
AF306 0513A CYCLONE HDOB 29 20070927
190100 2019N 09559W 8432 01518 0044 +168 +168 357026 031 040 005 00
190130 2020N 09558W 8427 01522 0046 +160 +160 352023 026 038 008 00
190200 2021N 09557W 8435 01515 0046 +160 +160 000025 028 036 015 00
190230 2022N 09555W 8429 01519 0040 +166 +166 009022 024 036 003 03
190300 2023N 09554W 8433 01514 0041 +164 +164 016022 025 030 005 03
190330 2023N 09552W 8437 01511 0036 +163 +163 028019 025 029 006 03
190400 2022N 09551W 8410 01530 0027 +169 +169 149005 013 053 015 03
190430 2022N 09549W 8409 01529 0013 +187 +176 153017 025 064 012 03
190500 2022N 09547W 8371 01583 0020 +194 +164 169029 033 062 015 03
190530 2023N 09546W 8370 01587 0031 +194 +161 171035 047 060 002 03
190600 2025N 09545W 8390 01568 0030 +204 +140 162032 034 054 002 03
190630 2027N 09544W 8437 01524 0039 +193 +162 167029 032 056 001 00
190700 2029N 09544W 8435 01524 0045 +178 +171 174026 030 048 000 03
190730 2031N 09543W 8422 01539 0055 +167 +167 177025 029 043 000 03
190800 2032N 09544W 8432 01531 0038 +199 +160 141010 014 999 999 03
190830 2032N 09546W 8437 01524 0029 +207 +155 091008 009 036 002 03
190900 2032N 09547W 8426 01536 0024 +217 +148 087008 009 033 002 03
190930 2030N 09548W 8435 01522 0042 +185 +165 110014 017 035 001 00
191000 2028N 09549W 8411 01548 0037 +186 +166 103019 022 044 002 00
191030 2027N 09549W 8452 01499 0036 +182 +174 096016 018 053 004 00
$$

Pressure 1002mb.

[fci]

Anybody know how populated the area to be hit is?

[Buck]

If this thing had an extra day more than it's going to, it would be a fierce monster.

[EyELeSs1]

64kt SFMR again now....

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I have with great effort restrained myself from condemning the oil
industries for their prices...

Anyway, I think Lorenzo has a fair chance of reaching hurricane strength, with litttle
shear and warm water.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 271919
AF306 0513A CYCLONE HDOB 30 20070927
191100 2025N 09550W 8432 01520 0019 +204 +159 114023 029 058 004 00
191130 2024N 09551W 8427 01514 0016 +193 +159 086020 029 057 004 03
191200 2022N 09550W 8426 01502 0015 +181 +177 076006 020 999 999 03
191230 2023N 09548W 8452 01490 0023 +175 +175 177034 046 999 999 03
191300 2025N 09548W 8433 01520 0017 +214 +152 131032 036 059 003 00
191330 2026N 09547W 8416 01538 0029 +199 +156 140026 031 057 001 00
191400 2028N 09547W 8416 01541 0035 +193 +157 138026 030 052 002 00
191430 2030N 09546W 8422 01545 0044 +193 +162 145023 024 047 001 03
191500 2030N 09548W 8429 01531 0041 +192 +163 111020 026 040 003 03
191530 2029N 09549W 8428 01524 0036 +187 +165 108018 023 049 002 03
191600 2027N 09550W 8428 01525 0029 +194 +162 103019 021 058 004 00
191630 2026N 09550W 8416 01535 0019 +198 +158 090025 032 052 003 03
191700 2024N 09550W 8418 01528 0007 +203 +165 118019 028 066 004 03
191730 2023N 09549W 8421 01520 0019 +177 +177 171030 042 074 009 03
191800 2022N 09548W 8436 01504 0002 +213 +176 175034 037 999 999 03
191830 2024N 09548W 8479 01465 9996 +237 +155 150039 044 061 004 03
191900 2026N 09548W 8454 01493 0011 +226 +147 133031 034 062 003 00
191930 2028N 09549W 8443 01510 0029 +192 +163 116023 027 056 001 00
192000 2029N 09549W 8441 01516 0037 +189 +161 117024 028 052 001 00
192030 2031N 09550W 8454 01504 0027 +216 +145 100016 020 053 001 00
$$

Pressure a bit under 1000mb. 74 kt SFMR suspect it appears.

[Coredesat]

Huh?! That statement contradicts the TPC's mission and their acknowledgment about the inaccuracies of intensity estimates.

How so? The NHC didn't forecast the system to intensify beyond 50 or 55 kt at any point, and the special advisory is only an update of the previous forecast with a new intensity. If any changes are going to be made, the NHC will make them at 4 PM CDT.

On another note (not directed at MiamiensisWx, but at everyone), I agree with Chacor's statement earlier, but posting the disclaimer with every single post reflecting one's thoughts on a system is a little excessive. It would be a good idea whenever someone says, for instance, "I think Lorenzo will become a cane!", for that person to provide some kind of reasoning. Yes, we can tell, but why? Forecasting isn't just "we think it'll be a hurricane", there must be reasoning behind it, or else it's not a forecast.

[tolakram]

I'm not forecasting Lorenzo at all, but since I know the NHC has trouble with storm intensity (not their fault, everyone does) and this storm has already surprised them with it's strength it seems prudent to predict (some call this forecasting) Lorenzo might become a hurricane before landfall.

That is UNLESS they weren't surprised by the intensity, which would raise other questions.

[EyELeSs1]

why is there such a difference btw flight level and low level winds in this mission?? Is it because the SFMR data is suspect/faulty or could it be due to the structure of this storm??

191600 2027N 09550W 8428 01525 0029 +194 +162 103019 021 058 004 00
191630 2026N 09550W 8416 01535 0019 +198 +158 090025 032 052 003 03
191700 2024N 09550W 8418 01528 0007 +203 +165 118019 028 066 004 03
191730 2023N 09549W 8421 01520 0019 +177 +177 171030 042 074 009 03
191800 2022N 09548W 8436 01504 0002 +213 +176 175034 037 999 999 03
191830 2024N 09548W 8479 01465 9996 +237 +155 150039 044 061 004 03
191900 2026N 09548W 8454 01493 0011 +226 +147 133031 034 062 003 00
191930 2028N 09549W 8443 01510 0029 +192 +163 116023 027 056 001 00
192000 2029N 09549W 8441 01516 0037 +189 +161 117024 028 052 001 00
192030 2031N 09550W 8454 01504 0027 +216 +145 100016 020 053 001 00

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 271929
AF306 0513A CYCLONE HDOB 31 20070927
192100 2033N 09551W 8405 01561 0028 +218 +141 076016 017 044 002 00
192130 2034N 09551W 8485 01475 0021 +229 +138 073014 016 042 002 00
192200 2036N 09552W 8477 01479 0017 +232 +136 078011 012 041 002 00
192230 2037N 09552W 8434 01525 0016 +231 +133 076009 012 037 000 00
192300 2039N 09553W 8425 01534 0018 +235 +126 071016 019 035 000 03
192330 2039N 09555W 8418 01546 0018 +235 +124 057020 022 999 999 03
192400 2037N 09554W 8438 01521 0015 +234 +129 051013 013 028 001 03
192430 2036N 09553W 8431 01528 0016 +235 +126 054008 010 034 001 03
192500 2035N 09552W 8416 01549 0023 +227 +132 069008 010 042 001 03
192530 2033N 09551W 8396 01569 0027 +217 +143 072013 014 046 002 03
192600 2032N 09551W 8389 01577 0030 +213 +146 099014 017 048 002 00
192630 2030N 09550W 8384 01579 0031 +207 +141 104024 028 052 003 03
192700 2029N 09551W 8392 01564 0032 +191 +161 098028 030 050 002 03
192730 2028N 09550W 8415 01538 0034 +184 +172 122021 023 051 001 03
192800 2028N 09548W 8360 01607 0027 +206 +151 136025 028 052 000 03
192830 2029N 09547W 8414 01546 0035 +199 +155 143025 028 047 002 00
192900 2030N 09546W 8402 01560 0046 +188 +156 132022 026 045 002 00
192930 2032N 09545W 8400 01571 0049 +188 +153 134029 032 046 002 00
193000 2033N 09544W 8431 01537 0053 +182 +162 140027 027 041 001 00
193030 2034N 09543W 8448 01521 0060 +174 +170 144029 030 038 003 03

[Buck]

URNT15 KNHC 271919
AF306 0513A CYCLONE HDOB 30 20070927
191100 2025N 09550W 8432 01520 0019 +204 +159 114023 029 058 004 00
191130 2024N 09551W 8427 01514 0016 +193 +159 086020 029 057 004 03
191200 2022N 09550W 8426 01502 0015 +181 +177 076006 020 999 999 03
191230 2023N 09548W 8452 01490 0023 +175 +175 177034 046 999 999 03
191300 2025N 09548W 8433 01520 0017 +214 +152 131032 036 059 003 00
191330 2026N 09547W 8416 01538 0029 +199 +156 140026 031 057 001 00
191400 2028N 09547W 8416 01541 0035 +193 +157 138026 030 052 002 00
191430 2030N 09546W 8422 01545 0044 +193 +162 145023 024 047 001 03
191500 2030N 09548W 8429 01531 0041 +192 +163 111020 026 040 003 03
191530 2029N 09549W 8428 01524 0036 +187 +165 108018 023 049 002 03
191600 2027N 09550W 8428 01525 0029 +194 +162 103019 021 058 004 00
191630 2026N 09550W 8416 01535 0019 +198 +158 090025 032 052 003 03
191700 2024N 09550W 8418 01528 0007 +203 +165 118019 028 066 004 03
191730 2023N 09549W 8421 01520 0019 +177 +177 171030 042 074 009 03
191800 2022N 09548W 8436 01504 0002 +213 +176 175034 037 999 999 03
191830 2024N 09548W 8479 01465 9996 +237 +155 150039 044 061 004 03
191900 2026N 09548W 8454 01493 0011 +226 +147 133031 034 062 003 00
191930 2028N 09549W 8443 01510 0029 +192 +163 116023 027 056 001 00
192000 2029N 09549W 8441 01516 0037 +189 +161 117024 028 052 001 00
192030 2031N 09550W 8454 01504 0027 +216 +145 100016 020 053 001 00
$$

Pressure a bit under 1000mb. 74 kt SFMR suspect it appears.

Yowza!

[Derek Ortt]

a similar structure was present with Humberto as well

[Cyclone1]

This just got named and is already near hurricane strength? Wow. Reminds me of Jose in 05.

[HURAKAN]

Radar of Alvarado, México:

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 271939
AF306 0513A CYCLONE HDOB 32 20070927
193100 2036N 09543W 8465 01510 0069 +171 +171 139028 029 999 999 03
193130 2036N 09544W 8484 01485 0064 +172 +172 129023 025 043 003 03
193200 2035N 09545W 8405 01565 0056 +174 +172 133024 025 043 002 00
193230 2033N 09547W 8430 01536 0050 +182 +166 137024 025 043 003 00
193300 2032N 09548W 8421 01544 0044 +188 +162 126022 024 045 003 00
193330 2031N 09549W 8425 01537 0039 +193 +160 111023 025 047 003 03
193400 2029N 09549W 8422 01537 0030 +204 +155 118022 024 055 002 00
193430 2028N 09550W 8426 01531 0025 +208 +153 132022 025 057 002 03
193500 2027N 09551W 8430 01520 0017 +202 +162 147029 032 058 001 00
193530 2026N 09552W 8429 01508 9995 +224 +149 123032 040 057 002 03
193600 2025N 09554W 8408 01521 0002 +190 +176 131017 020 037 002 03
193630 2023N 09555W 8393 01532 9991 +198 +169 144012 015 035 002 00
193700 2022N 09556W 8407 01517 9999 +184 +174 356006 022 026 002 00
193730 2020N 09557W 8440 01499 0017 +173 +173 338024 029 033 003 03
193800 2020N 09558W 8439 01505 0030 +168 +168 316022 025 999 999 03
193830 2021N 09558W 8421 01516 0022 +175 +175 333020 023 999 999 03
193900 2022N 09557W 8415 01511 0012 +178 +163 002023 031 029 001 03
193930 2023N 09556W 8446 01477 9995 +193 +176 121005 014 028 001 00
194000 2025N 09554W 8460 01464 0002 +188 +179 125012 013 048 004 00
194030 2026N 09553W 8407 01527 0004 +198 +169 137028 036 058 003 00
$$

Pressure 999mb.

[CrazyC83]

Eyewall starting to form on that radar?

[tolakram]

Loop:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_2

and how about that disturbance in the EPAC...

[JonathanBelles]

image omited
Loop:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_2

and how about that disturbance in the EPAC...

I didnt even notice that before.

[Buck]

Lorenzo e molto picollo!

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

If this thing stays out over the water for another
12-24 hours I see a strong category 2 with low
shear and high heat content with winds nearing
105 mph sustained by this time tomorrow. The only inhibiting
factor is proximity to land.