Tropical Depression LORENZO: Discussions & Images

[HURAKAN]

image omited
Loop:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_2

and how about that disturbance in the EPAC...

I didnt even notice that before.

99E: viewtopic.php?f=59&t=98343&p=1645761#p1645761

[KWT]

Does look like this system could become a hurricane, its in a very good set-up though the system does look rather lop-sided still,so development will probably start to slow from this point onwards due to structual issues. Still watch out tonight, deep convection will only get colder so it has a good shot at being a hurricane.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 271950
AF306 0513A CYCLONE HDOB 33 20070927
194100 2027N 09552W 8421 01525 0004 +227 +140 141039 042 060 001 00
194130 2028N 09551W 8432 01520 0013 +224 +138 142037 040 057 000 00
194200 2029N 09549W 8428 01529 0022 +222 +131 137039 043 054 000 00
194230 2030N 09548W 8428 01533 0029 +215 +128 137039 041 047 003 00
194300 2031N 09547W 8436 01531 0040 +205 +136 137036 038 044 002 00
194330 2033N 09546W 8429 01540 0047 +195 +144 140034 035 039 003 00
194400 2034N 09544W 8424 01546 0054 +181 +159 157035 037 036 001 00
194430 2035N 09543W 8422 01551 0062 +173 +162 162035 038 035 002 00
194500 2036N 09542W 8436 01537 0069 +166 +166 163037 039 034 001 00
194530 2037N 09540W 8420 01556 0073 +163 +163 163036 037 035 000 00
194600 2039N 09539W 8439 01539 0070 +172 +154 155031 033 037 000 00
194630 2040N 09538W 8419 01557 0055 +196 +137 153031 033 042 000 00
194700 2041N 09536W 8430 01543 0048 +209 +119 157032 036 046 000 00
194730 2042N 09535W 8424 01551 0053 +201 +124 159034 035 045 000 00
194800 2043N 09534W 8420 01556 0061 +188 +131 160034 035 040 000 00
194830 2045N 09532W 8435 01540 0056 +198 +137 160039 040 042 000 00
194900 2046N 09531W 8424 01557 0059 +198 +146 157039 039 042 000 00
194930 2047N 09529W 8432 01550 0064 +193 +150 155038 039 042 000 03
195000 2049N 09528W 8428 01556 0064 +196 +148 155038 039 041 000 00
195030 2050N 09526W 8427 01558 0065 +195 +149 155037 038 040 000 00
$$

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 271959
AF306 0513A CYCLONE HDOB 34 20070927
195100 2052N 09525W 8429 01557 0070 +191 +152 158037 037 037 000 00
195130 2053N 09523W 8424 01564 0070 +193 +149 161035 036 036 000 00
195200 2054N 09522W 8432 01557 0076 +185 +154 163036 037 035 000 00
195230 2056N 09520W 8428 01564 0083 +177 +159 166036 036 036 000 00
195300 2057N 09519W 8433 01562 0090 +170 +165 162035 036 034 000 00
195330 2058N 09517W 8429 01565 0090 +167 +167 161035 036 033 000 00
195400 2059N 09516W 8429 01564 0088 +170 +151 163031 033 032 000 00
195430 2101N 09515W 8430 01565 0087 +177 +155 159029 030 028 000 00
195500 2102N 09513W 8430 01564 0090 +174 +156 160029 029 026 000 00
195530 2103N 09512W 8429 01567 0093 +171 +153 156030 031 026 000 00
195600 2104N 09511W 8430 01569 0093 +170 +152 155030 031 024 000 00
195630 2106N 09509W 8427 01572 0097 +169 +153 158029 029 024 000 00
195700 2107N 09508W 8430 01570 0097 +170 +152 161030 030 024 000 00
195730 2108N 09507W 8428 01568 0095 +172 +149 165029 030 023 000 00
195800 2108N 09507W 8428 01568 0096 +171 +148 163029 029 023 000 00
195830 2110N 09504W 8428 01572 0096 +172 +147 163028 029 023 000 00
195900 2112N 09502W 8428 01573 0095 +175 +147 165027 027 021 000 00
195930 2113N 09501W 8430 01570 0095 +177 +146 164029 029 024 000 00
200000 2114N 09500W 8427 01574 0097 +171 +148 166030 030 024 000 00
200030 2115N 09458W 8424 01580 0101 +170 +149 166031 031 022 000 00
$$

[CrazyC83]

URNT12 KNHC 272002
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL132007
A. 27/19:37:00Z
B. 20 deg 22 min N
095 deg 56 min W
C. NA mb 1424 m
D. 74 kt
E. 087 deg 006 nm
F. 311 deg 047 kt
G. 224 deg 009 nm
H. 999 mb
I. 21 C/ 1443 m
J. 23 C/ 1524 m
K. 15 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134 /8
O. 0.02 / 7 nm
P. AF306 0513A CYCLONE OB 11
MAX FL WIND 52 KT SE QUAD 18:08:30 Z
MAX FL TEMP 24 C, 88 / 7NM

[Cyclenall]

For those thinking proximity to land to a negitive factor for strengthening for this TS, just remember Humberto.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

I don't agree on this at all.

Now I'm waiting for signs of a banding eyewall to form and then finally an eye which I have no idea how that will happen with this bursting type cyclone. I remember it was a bit different with Humberto when the wrapping effect started which is a strong signal of a eye starting.

[CrazyC83]

URNT15 KNHC 272009
AF306 0513A CYCLONE HDOB 35 20070927
200100 2117N 09457W 8432 01572 0104 +166 +151 167030 031 022 000 00
200130 2118N 09455W 8430 01576 0103 +170 +148 166030 030 022 000 00
200200 2119N 09454W 8428 01576 0104 +170 +147 164029 030 022 000 00
200230 2121N 09452W 8430 01576 0103 +170 +146 165028 028 020 000 03
200300 2122N 09450W 8428 01576 0103 +170 +148 166027 027 021 000 00
200330 2122N 09449W 8433 01572 0104 +170 +151 167027 027 021 000 00
200400 2123N 09447W 8428 01577 0105 +168 +151 169028 029 023 000 00
200430 2124N 09445W 8428 01579 0108 +163 +151 171029 029 024 000 00
200500 2125N 09443W 8430 01575 0108 +165 +146 172028 028 023 000 00
200530 2126N 09441W 8424 01583 0106 +169 +145 179024 025 023 000 00
200600 2127N 09439W 8133 01886 0101 +161 +130 162018 022 999 999 03
200630 2127N 09438W 7708 02339 0092 +146 +086 138019 022 999 999 03
200700 2128N 09436W 7381 02703 0092 +122 +069 139021 022 999 999 03
200730 2129N 09434W 7092 03042 0082 +113 +050 135021 022 999 999 03
200800 2130N 09433W 6835 03358 0091 +092 +037 137022 022 999 999 03
200830 2130N 09431W 6599 03651 0094 +072 +032 123019 022 999 999 03
200900 2131N 09429W 6351 03966 0087 +062 +006 106017 018 999 999 03
200930 2132N 09428W 6162 04220 0077 +053 -017 110016 016 026 000 03
201000 2133N 09426W 5990 04422 0049 +046 -040 112015 015 024 000 00
201030 2134N 09424W 5820 04656 0037 +031 -046 119015 015 023 000 00
$$

Ascending - flight is over.

[EyELeSs1]

they definitely give credit to the 74 kt winds so... an upgrade to cane status @ 5pm?

URNT12 KNHC 272002
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL132007
A. 27/19:37:00Z
B. 20 deg 22 min N
095 deg 56 min W
C. NA mb 1424 m
D. 74 kt
E. 087 deg 006 nm
F. 311 deg 047 kt
G. 224 deg 009 nm
H. 999 mb
I. 21 C/ 1443 m
J. 23 C/ 1524 m
K. 15 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134 /8
O. 0.02 / 7 nm
P. AF306 0513A CYCLONE OB 11
MAX FL WIND 52 KT SE QUAD 18:08:30 Z
MAX FL TEMP 24 C, 88 / 7NM

[Buck]

Wow, if this is a hurricane at 5pm, I suppose this smashed Humberto's record of fastest intensification from TD to Hurricane (although not his record of Invest to Hurricane).

[srainhoutx]

Thanks for the Recon Obs CrazyC83. Great Job on another interesting mission.

[jasons2k]

From Jeff Lindner:

Recon finds TD 13 has quickly intensified into a tropical storm.

Per recon data early this afternoon of 63kts at flight level… TD # 13 is upgraded to a 60mph tropical storm. Deep convective explosion has developed near and over the center and there are hints of a partial eyewall on Mexican radar. Although the surface pressure remain a little high…given the slow motion and much more favorable upper air pattern Lorenzo may attempt to become a hurricane.

No changes to forecast track as the system should move into Mexico late Friday. Given the rate of intensification and tiny core…similar to Humberto…continued intensification is possible at or above hurricane intensity.

[Brent]

...LORENZO EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST OF MEXICO AS A HURRICANE...

AT 4 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM PALMA SOLA TO
CABO ROJO. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

[JonathanBelles]

up to 70mph

[cycloneye]

177
WTNT33 KNHC 272037
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LORENZO ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132007
400 PM CDT THU SEP 27 2007

...LORENZO EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST OF MEXICO AS A HURRICANE...

AT 4 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM PALMA SOLA TO
CABO ROJO. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

AT 4 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM SOUTH OF PALMA SOLA TO VERACRUZ. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE GULF COAST OF
MEXICO FROM NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA CRUZ. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 400 PM CDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LORENZO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.9 WEST OR ABOUT 105
MILES...170 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF TUXPAN MEXICO.

LORENZO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION TOWARD THE COAST OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE
CENTER CROSSES THE COAST OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 12 HOURS OR SO

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASE TO NEAR 70 MPH...110
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST
AND LORENZO COULD REACH THE COAST AS A HURRICANE.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED
NEAR AND TO THE NORTH WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES THE COAST.

REPEATING THE 400 PM CDT POSITION...20.4 N...95.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 700 PM CDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000
PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


902
WTNT23 KNHC 272036
TCMAT3
TROPICAL STORM LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132007
2100 UTC THU SEP 27 2007

AT 4 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM PALMA SOLA TO
CABO ROJO. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

AT 4 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM SOUTH OF PALMA SOLA TO VERACRUZ. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE GULF COAST OF
MEXICO FROM NORTH OF CABO ROJO TO LA CRUZ. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 95.9W AT 27/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 20SE 30SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 60SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 95.9W AT 27/2100Z
AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 95.7W

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 20.4N 96.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 15NE 25SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT... 30NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 20.5N 97.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 21.0N 98.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.4N 95.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

WTNT43 KNHC 272037
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM LORENZO DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132007
500 PM EDT THU SEP 27 2007

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE PLANE INVESTIGATING LORENZO
INDICATE THAT THE WINDS HAVE BEEN INCREASING AND THE PRESSURE HAS
COME DOWN TO AT LEAST 999 MB. THE CREW REPORTED A VERY TIGHT CENTER
THAT WAS VERY HARD TO FIX...WITH A LOT OF CONVECTION. INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET AT 60 KNOTS WHICH IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AND THE SFMR MEASUREMENTS. THIS INTENSITY
ESTIMATE IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE INCREASED ORGANIZATION OF THE THE
CLOUD PATTERN ON SATELLITE IMAGES AND THE CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN
DVORAK T-NUMBERS.

THE CENTER OF LORENZO WILL LIKELY BE MOVING OVER WATER FOR A LITTLE
MORE THAN 12 HOURS BEFORE IT REACHES THE COAST. BECAUSE THE SHEAR
IS LOW AND THE OCEAN IS WARM...LORENZO COULD EASILY CROSS THE COAST
AS A HURRICANE. WE ALL KNOW THAT INTENSITY FORECASTS ARE UNCERTAIN
DESPITE ALL THE RECENT SCIENTIFIC ADVANCES...AND THE WINDS AT
LANDFALL COULD BE A LITTLE BIT STRONGER OR WEAKER THAN INDICATED.

LORENZO CONTINUES TO BE TRAPPED SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS PATTERN WILL FORCE
LORENZO ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARD THE
GULF COAST OF MEXICO. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH ALL OF THE AVAILABLE
TRACK GUIDANCE WHICH UNANIMOUSLY BRING LORENZO TO THE COAST IN
ABOUT 12 TO 18 HOURS.

THE SLOW MOTION OF LORENZO WILL LIKELY PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL
ALONG ITS PATH.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 27/2100Z 20.4N 95.9W 60 KT
12HR VT 28/0600Z 20.4N 96.6W 65 KT
24HR VT 28/1800Z 20.5N 97.5W 30 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 29/0600Z 21.0N 98.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[Brent]

This looks like it's going to make landfall very near where Dean did the second time.

[NetZeroZeus]

Very bad guys...this area is just recovering from massive flooding the past month and the month before, they have likely seen the wettest summer on record, every major river has overflowed it's banks at least once this year in the area, many twice or three times, leaving major parts of major cities underwater. They DO NOT need this.

[vegastar]

TROPICAL STORM LORENZO DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132007
500 PM EDT THU SEP 27 2007

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE PLANE INVESTIGATING LORENZO
INDICATE THAT THE WINDS HAVE BEEN INCREASING AND THE PRESSURE HAS
COME DOWN TO AT LEAST 999 MB. THE CREW REPORTED A VERY TIGHT CENTER
THAT WAS VERY HARD TO FIX...WITH A LOT OF CONVECTION. INITIAL
INTENSITY IS SET AT 60 KNOTS WHICH IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AND THE SFMR MEASUREMENTS. THIS INTENSITY
ESTIMATE IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE INCREASED ORGANIZATION OF THE THE
CLOUD PATTERN ON SATELLITE IMAGES AND THE CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN
DVORAK T-NUMBERS.

THE CENTER OF LORENZO WILL LIKELY BE MOVING OVER WATER FOR A LITTLE
MORE THAN 12 HOURS BEFORE IT REACHES THE COAST. BECAUSE THE SHEAR
IS LOW AND THE OCEAN IS WARM...LORENZO COULD EASILY CROSS THE COAST
AS A HURRICANE. WE ALL KNOW THAT INTENSITY FORECASTS ARE UNCERTAIN
DESPITE ALL THE RECENT SCIENTIFIC ADVANCES...AND THE WINDS AT
LANDFALL COULD BE A LITTLE BIT STRONGER OR WEAKER THAN INDICATED.

LORENZO CONTINUES TO BE TRAPPED SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS PATTERN WILL FORCE
LORENZO ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARD THE
GULF COAST OF MEXICO. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH ALL OF THE AVAILABLE
TRACK GUIDANCE WHICH UNANIMOUSLY BRING LORENZO TO THE COAST IN
ABOUT 12 TO 18 HOURS.

THE SLOW MOTION OF LORENZO WILL LIKELY PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL
ALONG ITS PATH.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 27/2100Z 20.4N 95.9W 60 KT
12HR VT 28/0600Z 20.4N 96.6W 65 KT
24HR VT 28/1800Z 20.5N 97.5W 30 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 29/0600Z 21.0N 98.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


One think got my attention:

THE CREW REPORTED A VERY TIGHT CENTER THAT WAS VERY HARD TO FIX.

Could this mean that a (dreaded) pinhole eye could form?

[Category 5]

[HURAKAN]

Close-up:

[CrazyC83]

Thanks for the Recon Obs CrazyC83. Great Job on another interesting mission.

No prob; I'm sure that surprised the Hurricane Hunters themselves as well...