Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

[cycloneye]

Sandy,it is stationary.I am seeing something that the pro mets have to analize.There is a big upper low in the Atlantic,well NE of the Caribbean.But it has a trough comming down from the upper low to the Caribbean.The question is,if that upper low and trough can have a influence in the track of Noel,meaning instead of moving NW it starts to move eastnortheast,bringing more problems to Puerto Rico and adjacent islands that what we haved been thru? I know that scenario is not going to occur,but never say never in the tropics,especially in this time of the year when the features have erratic movements.

[NcentralFlaguy]

:uarrow: Sandy,it is stationary.I am seeing something that the pro mets have to analize.There is a big upper low in the Atlantic,well NE of the Caribbean.But it has a trough comming down from the upper low to the Caribbean.The question is,if that upper low and trough can have a influence in the track of Noel,meaning instead of moving NW it starts to move eastnortheast,bringing more problems to Puerto Rico and adjacent islands that what we haved been thru? I know that scenario is not going to occur,but never say never in the tropics,especially in this time of the year when the features have erratic movements.

I do think the trough you mentioned is acting to ventilate the system to the north,and that wouldnt be good either.

[CrazyC83]

It seems to be breaking in two...has any tropical cyclone, while active, broken into two with the original one surviving?

[Cyclone1]

It seems to be breaking in two...has any tropical cyclone, while active, broken into two with the original one surviving?

Kinda, Hurricane Clara may have formed from one of Hurricane Babe's rainbands in 1977.

If Noel breaks up into two storms, I'll eat my house.

[tolakram]

That's just two intense areas of convection, the one further to the east is moving toward the north as would be expected.



RGB loop:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rgb.html

[NcentralFlaguy]

It is showing signs of strenghtening again, doesnt looked vertically stacked though. I guess there is some persistant westerly shear at the moment.

[fci]

It seems to be breaking in two...has any tropical cyclone, while active, broken into two with the original one surviving?

Kinda, Hurricane Clara may have formed from one of Hurricane Babe's rainbands in 1977.

If Noel breaks up into two storms, I'll eat my house.

Would be entertaining to see someone eat their house.
Would be a classic on You Tube!!!

[tolakram]

For this storm I'm get a better understanding of what it looks like by zooming out to the atlantic loop:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-vis.html

from a distance you can make out the rotation and the general position.

[HurricaneRobert]

It seems to be breaking in two...has any tropical cyclone, while active, broken into two with the original one surviving?

Last year Florence divided into two with the second area of convection becoming Gordon.

[HURAKAN]

It seems to be breaking in two...has any tropical cyclone, while active, broken into two with the original one surviving?

Last year Florence divided into two with the second area of convection becoming Gordon.

That's false. Gordon was a tropical wave that was being suppressed by Florence's large circulation. After Florence moved out of the way, the wave was able to transform itself into Gordon.

[Vortex]

Deep convection once again re-firing near the center. Won't take to much to see this close in on Hurricane status.

[Brent]

TWC just showed a map with a HURRICANE WARNING for South Florida.

What has happened to that channel?!

[wxman57]

:uarrow: Sandy,it is stationary.I am seeing something that the pro mets have to analize.There is a big upper low in the Atlantic,well NE of the Caribbean.But it has a trough comming down from the upper low to the Caribbean.The question is,if that upper low and trough can have a influence in the track of Noel,meaning instead of moving NW it starts to move eastnortheast,bringing more problems to Puerto Rico and adjacent islands that what we haved been thru? I know that scenario is not going to occur,but never say never in the tropics,especially in this time of the year when the features have erratic movements.

I think that the ridge to the north may be blocking it temporarily now, but it's still moving. The ridge is forecast to weaken tomorrow and move east a bit, that should allow Noel to follow the current forecast track. I feel good about the track now, but the timing may be a bit off. Still could track a bit east of the forecast, but not to PR.

[wzrgirl1]

TWC just showed a map with a HURRICANE WARNING for South Florida.

What has happened to that channel?!

did you see that crap.....he quickly recanted though

[Blown Away]

:uarrow: Sandy,it is stationary.I am seeing something that the pro mets have to analize.There is a big upper low in the Atlantic,well NE of the Caribbean.But it has a trough comming down from the upper low to the Caribbean.The question is,if that upper low and trough can have a influence in the track of Noel,meaning instead of moving NW it starts to move eastnortheast,bringing more problems to Puerto Rico and adjacent islands that what we haved been thru? I know that scenario is not going to occur,but never say never in the tropics,especially in this time of the year when the features have erratic movements.

I think that the ridge to the north may be blocking it temporarily now, but it's still moving. The ridge is forecast to weaken tomorrow and move east a bit, that should allow Noel to follow the current forecast track. I feel good about the track now, but the timing may be a bit off. Still could track a bit east of the forecast, but not to PR.

So what's up w/ the GFS, Ukmet, and Nogaps bringing Noel passed of 80W, if it could track even be farther E than the current track.

[NcentralFlaguy]

I believe the wnw motion will not occur until ridge temporarily builds back in, but at the moment we may see the storm move east of the forecast path. I havent heard any promets comment on the models showing that west movement though. prob wait until the new runs.

[CrazyC83]

Will they hold Noel at 50 kt at the 8 pm advisory, or bump him up?

[Ed Mahmoud]

Anybody else think Noel may be forming a partial eyewall, Northeast quadrant?

South of the 'pointy peninsula' of the DR?

[CrazyC83]

Anybody else think Noel may be forming a partial eyewall, Northeast quadrant?

South of the 'pointy peninsula' of the DR?

Hard to tell but I don't see anything looking like an eye that is visible. Maybe inside the clouds there is an eyewall forming though...

[CrazyC83]

One thing I am having a hard time figuring out is the blob SE of the main convection (south of Puerto Rico) - is that part of Noel or a separate wave?