CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[jhamps10]

I don't buy the praying storms away stuff, but Dr. Frank does know his weather. There could be a bit of -removed- to keep the Houston viewers tuned in, but he knows more about weather than I ever will.

I agree, I mean come on people he was in charge of NHC for goodness sakes, and I just watched the video of the weathercast in question. I thought his statement was VERY reasonable, as quite frankly that low if it doesn't get to the Shore, then it could very well easily end up going to the Texas gulf coast. That is Why we keep watching this until it is dead and gone.

[wxmann_91]

Is it just me, or has the eye continued to cool, and has Dean just taken a wobble west-southwest?

It really does not look healthy right now, although that's just probably the remnants of the inner eyewall clouding the eye.

[Sanibel]

138KT FL = 145mph

[fasterdisaster]

Strengthened to about 150 mph judging from latest recon. The unhealthiness you're seeing is probably the land interaction with Jamaica on the northern side. It's been 'squishing', for lack of a better word, the system, but hasn't really been weakening it. It's starting to look SLIGHTLY better as it moves away from Jamaica though.

[srainhoutx]

>>Point taken. ... but I understand your position. No harm done, sir.

It's all good.

Steve

Thanks Folks, we ae all in this together.

[perk]

Apparently not a long loop, because what I'm seeing is that the circulation center has moved from roughly south of the AL/FL border to south of SC Louisiana in the last 12 hours. Maybe they should try the Unisys link?

http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv_east.html

Steve

I've looked at a couple of long loops, and i know how far it's moved, but my point is it's slowed considerably.

[shelby]

Wxman57 knows what he's talking about. Dr. Frank has publicly said that his church groups have successfully prayed storms away when he lived in South Florida. Go google it if you don't believe me.

link please

[Derek Ortt]

according to H-WIND, May Pen did take the brunt of the storm. I expect the worst from that city, even worse than Kingston

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

143 knots=148 mph at the surface or around 150 mph.

I agree Wxman_91, it appears to me to be tilted south to north as you go up into the Atmosphere,. But it has strengthen slightly already...We will have to see, it is now moving over some very hot water.

[fasterdisaster]

Sadly I expect at least a few fatalities in Jamaica.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The 0z NAM is starting to run ... it'll be interesting to see how it treats the ULL as well as Dean. Not that I trust this model at all ... only curious as its the first 0z model out for consumption and I'm kinda curious what it does with this low, if anything at all.

The 0z NAM is showing a landfall in far northeast Mexico.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_060l.gif

This is well north of the 18z run.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_066l.gif

[fasterdisaster]

The 0z NAM is starting to run ... it'll be interesting to see how it treats the ULL as well as Dean. Not that I trust this model at all ... only curious as its the first 0z model out for consumption and I'm kinda curious what it does with this low, if anything at all.

The 0z NAM is showing a landfall in far northeast Mexico.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_060l.gif

This is well north of the 18z run.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_066l.gif

Certainly didn't see that coming. Wait for more models before resuming panic though Texas.

[Chacor]

395
URNT12 KNHC 200243
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042007
A. 20/02:19:30Z
B. 17 deg 28 min N
078 deg 34 min W
C. 700 mb 2452 m
D. 107 kt
E. 128 deg 9 nm
F. 224 deg 108 kt
G. 128 deg 009 nm
H. 927 mb
I. 7 C/ 3019 m
J. 18 C/ 3043 m
K. 15 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C16
N. 12345/7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF304 1104A DEAN OB 10
MAX FL WIND 125 KT E QUAD 01:25:00 Z
MAX FL WIND OUTBOUND 143 KT NW QUAD 02:25:30 Z
STARS VISIBLE ABOVE IN CENTER

[Brent]

HURRICANE DEAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
0300 UTC MON AUG 20 2007

AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO CANCUN ON THE EAST
COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. IN ADDITION...THE
HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED WESTWARD AND SOUTHWARD...AND IS
NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN COASTS OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF CANCUN TO CIUDAD DEL CARMEN.

AT 11 PM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE
WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY
NORTHWARD TO THE BELIZE/MEXICO BORDER.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY IN JAMAICA
SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED. PREPARATIONS ELSEWHERE IN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREAS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN
PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM PORT-AU-PRINCE TO THE HAITI/DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA...FROM THE PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY EASTWARD
TO THE PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING PROVINCES
OF CUBA...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA... CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI
SPIRITUS... CIENFUEGOS... MATANZAS...AND ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF BELIZE FROM SOUTH OF BELIZE CITY SOUTHWARD TO THE
BELIZE/GUATEMALA BORDER.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE SOUTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 78.8W AT 20/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 925 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 155 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT.......180NE 150SE 75SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..450NE 270SE 300SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 78.8W AT 20/0300Z
AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 77.8W

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 18.0N 81.4W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 75SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 18.5N 84.9W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 75SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 19.2N 88.4W...INLAND OVER YUCATAN
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 90NE 75SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 75SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 19.8N 91.9W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 100SE 75SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 21.0N 99.0W...INLAND OVER MAINLAND MEXICO
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 0SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 78.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER KNABB/ROBERTS

[wxwatcher91]

So with the remainder of the inner eyewall clouding the eye, is the EWRC complete for the most part (except for the eye clearing)?

[CrazyC83]

141
URNT15 KNHC 200244
AF304 1104A DEAN HDOB 25 20070820
023430 1803N 07912W 6969 03077 9989 +074 +074 061080 081 057 008 00
023500 1805N 07913W 6965 03087 9984 +082 +082 062078 079 053 008 00
023530 1806N 07914W 6965 03090 9982 +087 +080 063076 077 053 007 00
023600 1807N 07916W 6963 03093 9983 +089 +080 063077 077 051 005 00
023630 1809N 07917W 6969 03091 9993 +085 +085 062078 079 051 005 00
023700 1810N 07919W 6964 03100 9994 +084 +084 065080 080 050 006 00
023730 1811N 07920W 6965 03104 9997 +085 +085 064084 087 049 004 00
023800 1811N 07920W 6965 03104 0000 +084 +084 065086 087 048 005 00
023830 1814N 07923W 6964 03105 9992 +089 +089 069078 082 047 004 00
023900 1816N 07924W 6969 03101 0000 +086 +085 068076 077 047 003 00
023930 1817N 07926W 6969 03105 0003 +088 +087 066075 076 046 003 00
024000 1818N 07927W 6971 03105 0004 +089 +074 064073 073 045 002 00
024030 1820N 07929W 6965 03116 0012 +086 +078 064074 075 044 003 00
024100 1821N 07930W 6967 03113 0015 +086 +074 066073 074 044 002 00
024130 1822N 07931W 6969 03115 0018 +088 +072 065073 073 043 003 00
024200 1824N 07933W 6965 03123 0018 +090 +077 064073 074 042 002 00
024230 1825N 07934W 6964 03127 0019 +091 +072 062072 073 041 003 00
024300 1826N 07936W 6966 03127 0020 +092 +070 062071 071 040 002 00
024330 1828N 07937W 6963 03133 0027 +090 +068 062069 069 038 002 00
024400 1829N 07938W 6969 03127 0035 +084 +076 064069 070 038 002 00
$$

[Chacor]

So with the remainder of the inner eyewall clouding the eye, is the EWRC complete for the most part (except for the eye clearing)?

Right on time:
395
URNT12 KNHC 200243
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042007
A. 20/02:19:30Z
B. 17 deg 28 min N
078 deg 34 min W
C. 700 mb 2452 m
D. 107 kt
E. 128 deg 9 nm
F. 224 deg 108 kt
G. 128 deg 009 nm
H. 927 mb
I. 7 C/ 3019 m
J. 18 C/ 3043 m
K. 15 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C16
N. 12345/7
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF304 1104A DEAN OB 10
MAX FL WIND 125 KT E QUAD 01:25:00 Z
MAX FL WIND OUTBOUND 143 KT NW QUAD 02:25:30 Z
STARS VISIBLE ABOVE IN CENTER

I assume this means a clear eye.

[Texashawk]

The 0z NAM is starting to run ... it'll be interesting to see how it treats the ULL as well as Dean. Not that I trust this model at all ... only curious as its the first 0z model out for consumption and I'm kinda curious what it does with this low, if anything at all.

The 0z NAM is showing a landfall in far northeast Mexico.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_060l.gif

This is well north of the 18z run.. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_066l.gif

That is.... unsettling, to say the least. And that is probably without the full brunt of a possible stalled ULL...

[Brent]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
1100 PM EDT SUN AUG 19 2007

...DEAN STILL BATTERING JAMAICA...
...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF MEXICO AND BELIZE...

AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO CANCUN ON THE EAST
COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. IN ADDITION...THE
HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED WESTWARD AND SOUTHWARD...AND IS
NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN COASTS OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF CANCUN TO CIUDAD DEL CARMEN.

AT 11 PM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE
WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY
NORTHWARD TO THE BELIZE/MEXICO BORDER.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY IN JAMAICA
SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED. PREPARATIONS ELSEWHERE IN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREAS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN
PENINSULA OF HAITI FROM PORT-AU-PRINCE TO THE HAITI/DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR
PORTIONS OF EASTERN CUBA...FROM THE PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY EASTWARD
TO THE PROVINCE OF GUANTANAMO.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING PROVINCES
OF CUBA...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA... CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI
SPIRITUS... CIENFUEGOS... MATANZAS...AND ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF BELIZE FROM SOUTH OF BELIZE CITY SOUTHWARD TO THE
BELIZE/GUATEMALA BORDER.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE SOUTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DEAN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.8 WEST OR ABOUT 135 MILES...
215 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 195 MILES...
315 KM...SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN.

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER OF DEAN WILL MOVE AWAY FROM JAMAICA
OVERNIGHT AND PASS JUST SOUTH OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS ON MONDAY
MORNING.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. DEAN IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND DEAN COULD REACH CATEGORY
FIVE STRENGTH ON MONDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 925 MB...27.31 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7 TO 9 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE CENTER OF DEAN WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREAS
IN JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF
9 TO 11 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO THE
NORTH OF WHERE DEAN MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER
JAMAICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 20
INCHES. AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN HAITI. EASTERN CUBA COULD
RECEIVE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN...WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS UP TO 7
INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...17.6 N...78.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...924 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB/ROBERTS

[Sanibel]

From this wind chart you can see what would have happened if Dean was 25 miles closer to Kingston...