Typhoon Usagi in Western Pacific

[P.K.]

30kts, 1004hPa.

WWJP25 RJTD 271800
WARNING AND SUMMARY 271800.
WARNING VALID 281800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA
AT 18.2N 153.3E SOUTH OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING WESTSOUTHWEST 07
KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK SEA OF JAPAN BOHAI
YELLOW SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 32N 141E 42N 143E
51N 157E 60N 165E 60N 180E 41N 180E 39N 170E 38N 160E 35N 150E 32N
141E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 998 HPA AT 46N 141E EAST 15 KT.
LOW 1006 HPA AT 51N 152E NE SLOWLY.
HIGH 1010 HPA AT 29N 126E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1012 HPA AT 58N 127E SE 10 KT.
HIGH 1010 HPA AT 20N 141E WEST 10 KT.
COLD FRONT FROM 46N 141E TO 43N 138E 42N 134E.
WARM FRONT FROM 46N 141E TO 46N 145E 45N 148E.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

[RL3AO]

Looks like Usagi should be with us soon.

BTW, nice site. I don't know if I've ever posted or not.

[Chacor]

[cycloneye]

Chacor,it's now a Tropical Cyclone? If so then a new thread will be made in the active storms forum.

[Chacor]

Here's the thing, JMA very often declares tropical depressions that are nothing more than INVEST-level storms. So I would suggest for WPac only creating a new thread if public bulletins are released, because that means the JMA is expecting a tropical storm to form.

But technically, yes, it is a tropical cyclone according to the RSMC.

[RL3AO]

The UKMET has this as Cosme's remnants.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/ukm/fcst/archive/07072718/1.html

[Chacor]

In all fairness I don't think they are. I suppose we'll know if/when it becomes a TS.

Still no public bulletins are being issued, but the 00Z marine warning is out:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA
AT 17.8N 150.8E SOUTH OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING WESTSOUTHWEST 15
KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

[RL3AO]

I'm pretty sure they are not. Not like it matters anyway.

[Typhoon Hunter]

NRL site has gone a bit loopy and just showing a blob over the south china sea and no sign of this TD. Here's the UKMET showing this as the remnants of Cosme:

[RL3AO]

It can't be the remnants of Cosme. Look how far it moved from the 25th to 27th.

[P.K.]

Public advisories have been started. It is forecast to be a TS within 12 hours in the ICAO advisory.

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 280600UTC 17.5N 149.7E POOR
MOVE WSW 10KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 290600UTC 17.0N 145.3E 150NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT

[P.K.]

Forecast in 24 hours is up to 40kts now.

WTPQ20 RJTD 280900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 280900UTC 17.5N 149.5E POOR
MOVE WSW 10KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 290900UTC 17.7N 145.4E 150NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =

[Chacor]

[Chacor]

The next name on the list is Usagi, contributed by Japan. It means "rabbit", which is ironic - Yutu from earlier this year means "jade rabbit" (from a Chinese fable).

[HURAKAN]

Iwo Jima, watch out!!!

[HURAKAN]

WTPN31 PGTW 281500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/271321Z JUL 07//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
281200Z --- NEAR 17.9N 149.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 17.9N 149.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 18.5N 147.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 19.5N 146.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 20.9N 144.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 22.3N 143.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 25.6N 140.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
281500Z POSITION NEAR 18.1N 148.9E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 05W (NONAME) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 260 NM
NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN
271321Z JUL 07 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 271330)
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 282100Z, 290300Z, 290900Z AND 291500Z.//

[P.K.]

No change on the last advisory with the initial intensity or estimated pressure.

WTPQ20 RJTD 281500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 281500UTC 17.8N 148.9E POOR
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 040KT
FORECAST
24HF 291500UTC 19.9N 146.0E 150NM 70%
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =

[Chacor]

WTPQ31 PGUM 281521
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM 05W ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
130 AM GUAM LST SUN JUL 29 2007

..TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W FORMS EAST OF THE FAR NORTHERN MARIANAS...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT AS OF 130 AM LST FOR
AGRIHAN...PAGAN AND ALAMAGAN IN THE NORTHERN MARIANAS. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING
DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 TO 74 MPH...ARE POSSIBLE.

AT 1 AM GUAM LST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 148.9 DEGREES
EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 200 MILES EAST OF ALAMAGAN
205 MILES EAST OF PAGAN
215 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF AGRIHAN
295 MILES NORTHEAST OF SAIPAN AND
425 MILES NORTHEAST OF GUAM.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W IS MOVING WEST AT 16 MPH. TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 05W IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH A
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 30 MPH. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W IS
EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TODAY...AND MAY BECOME A TROPICAL STORM THIS
AFTERNOON OR EVENING.

REPEATING THE 1 AM GUAM LST POSITION...LATITUDE 18.1 DEGREES NORTH
AND LONGITUDE 148.9 DEGREES EAST...MOVING WEST AT 16 MPH WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 30 MPH.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 5 AM GUAM LST...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY
AT 8 AM GUAM LST.

$$

STANKO

[HURAKAN]

28/1433 UTC 18.6N 149.2E T2.0/2.0 BILIS -- West Pacific Ocean

Oops!!!

[P.K.]

0705 isn't far off forming now.

FKPQ30 RJTD 281800
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20070728/1800Z
TCAC: TOKYO
TC: TD
NR: 3
PSN: N1805 E14825
MOV: WNW 10KT
C: 1002HPA
MAX WIND: 30KT
FCST PSN +12HR: 29/0600Z N1905 E14640
FCST MAX WIND +12HR: 40KT
FCST PSN +18HR: NIL
FCST MAX WIND +18HR: NIL
FCST PSN +24HR: 29/1800Z N2030 E14510
FCST MAX WIND +24HR: 45KT
NXT MSG: 20070729/0000Z =