Extratropical Storm Chantal: last CHC advisory issued

[Chacor]

412
WTNT23 KNHC 310241
TCMAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032007
0300 UTC TUE JUL 31 2007

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.1N 66.0W AT 31/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.1N 66.0W AT 31/0300Z
AT 31/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.5N 66.5W

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 38.2N 64.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 42.5N 60.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...100NE 200SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 47.5N 52.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 240SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 52.5N 43.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 300SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 58.0N 30.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 240SE 0SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 61.0N 23.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 65.0N 15.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.1N 66.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[RL3AO]

Forecasted to 35kts then extratropical.

Go ahead and put it up on WP Chacor.

[Thunder44]

...Tropical depression...third cyclone of the season...forms between
Bermuda and Cape Cod...
At 1100 PM EDT...0300z...the center of Tropical Depression Three was
located near latitude 36.1 north...longitude 66.0 west or about 270
miles...435 km...north-northwest of Bermuda and about 445 miles...
710 km...south-southeast of Chatham Massachusetts.

The depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 16 mph. A
turn to the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected
over the next 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph...55 km/hr...with higher
gusts. The depression could become a tropical storm overnight
before becoming extratropical by late tomorrow.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb...29.74 inches.

Repeating the 1100 PM EDT position...36.1 N...66.0 W. Movement
toward...north-northeast near 16 mph. Maximum sustained winds...35
mph. Minimum central pressure...1007 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
500 am EDT.

$$
Forecaster Franklin

[Chacor]

590
WTNT43 KNHC 310243
TCDAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032007
1100 PM EDT MON JUL 30 2007

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT PASSED TO THE WEST OF BERMUDA EARLIER
TODAY HAS BEEN MAINTAINING CONSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION FOR THE LAST
15 HOURS OR SO. THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER...EXPOSED FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY...HAS MADE A COUPLE OF FORAYS UNDERNEATH THE
CONVECTION...AND IS WELL-ENOUGH INVOLVED WITH THE CONVECTION TO
CONSIDER THE SYSTEM A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. SHIP REPORTS AND
QUIKSCAT OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST AN INTENSITY OF 30 KT. WITH ANOTHER
TWELVE HOURS OR SO OVER WARM WATERS...THE CYCLONE WILL HAVE AN
OPPORTUNITY TO REACH STORM STRENGTH AS IT ACCELERATES
NORTHEASTWARD...BUT SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD KEEP ANY DEVELOPMENT
AS A TROPICAL SYSTEM MINIMAL...AND THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME A FRONTAL LOW WITHIN ABOUT 24 HOURS. LARGE-SCALE MODELS
GENERALLY SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM COULD BE A VIGOROUS EXTRATROPICAL
LOW FOR SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 020/14. A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH ALONG THE
ATLANTIC U.S. COAST WILL STEER THE DEPRESSION GENERALLY
NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL THE CYCLONE BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS A
BLEND OF THE GFDL...HWRF...AND GFS GUIDANCE. THE EXTRATROPICAL
PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS GUIDANCE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 31/0300Z 36.1N 66.0W 30 KT
12HR VT 31/1200Z 38.2N 64.5W 35 KT
24HR VT 01/0000Z 42.5N 60.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 01/1200Z 47.5N 52.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 02/0000Z 52.5N 43.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 03/0000Z 58.0N 30.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 04/0000Z 61.0N 23.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 05/0000Z 65.0N 15.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Cyclone1]

So... this is gonna exist for twelve hours?

[Brent]

So... this is gonna exist for twelve hours?

Looks like it might... and forecast to strengthen enough to become Chantal.

Forgot this board was here, lol.

[windstorm99]

[RL3AO]

So... this is gonna exist for twelve hours?

Pretty much.

[Weatherfreak14]

Oh yes, Finallly...... Ah feels sooo good...

[Cyclone1]

So... this is gonna exist for twelve hours?

Looks like it might... and forecast to strengthen enough to become Chantal.

Forgot this board was here, lol.

A twelve hour long TS, That's new.

[Brent]

So... this is gonna exist for twelve hours?

Looks like it might... and forecast to strengthen enough to become Chantal.

Forgot this board was here, lol.

A twelve hour long TS, That's new.

Lee in 2005 was only a TS for SIX hours.

I'm sure there have been others, mostly ones that made landfall.

[btangy]

Landfall in Iceland! I guess more downpours and flooding for England if it heads their way as well. I'm really surprised they classified this. Was looking quite extratropical to me and there is clearly some baroclinic interaction occurring.

[hurricanefloyd5]

This is great!!!!!!

[hurricanefloyd5]

000
WTNT43 KNHC 310243
TCDAT3
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032007
1100 PM EDT MON JUL 30 2007

THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT PASSED TO THE WEST OF BERMUDA EARLIER
TODAY HAS BEEN MAINTAINING CONSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION FOR THE LAST
15 HOURS OR SO. THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER...EXPOSED FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY...HAS MADE A COUPLE OF FORAYS UNDERNEATH THE
CONVECTION...AND IS WELL-ENOUGH INVOLVED WITH THE CONVECTION TO
CONSIDER THE SYSTEM A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. SHIP REPORTS AND
QUIKSCAT OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST AN INTENSITY OF 30 KT. WITH ANOTHER
TWELVE HOURS OR SO OVER WARM WATERS...THE CYCLONE WILL HAVE AN
OPPORTUNITY TO REACH STORM STRENGTH AS IT ACCELERATES
NORTHEASTWARD...BUT SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD KEEP ANY DEVELOPMENT
AS A TROPICAL SYSTEM MINIMAL...AND THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME A FRONTAL LOW WITHIN ABOUT 24 HOURS. LARGE-SCALE MODELS
GENERALLY SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM COULD BE A VIGOROUS EXTRATROPICAL
LOW FOR SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 020/14. A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH ALONG THE
ATLANTIC U.S. COAST WILL STEER THE DEPRESSION GENERALLY
NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL THE CYCLONE BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS A
BLEND OF THE GFDL...HWRF...AND GFS GUIDANCE. THE EXTRATROPICAL
PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFS GUIDANCE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 31/0300Z 36.1N 66.0W 30 KT
12HR VT 31/1200Z 38.2N 64.5W 35 KT
24HR VT 01/0000Z 42.5N 60.0W 35 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT 01/1200Z 47.5N 52.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT 02/0000Z 52.5N 43.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 03/0000Z 58.0N 30.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 04/0000Z 61.0N 23.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 05/0000Z 65.0N 15.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[JonathanBelles]

HAHA I found out in a weird way. I was on my new phone tryin to figure out the internet and came to the board and saw it. S2k isnt very phone friendly.

[Thunder44]

Well, I guess my gut feeling was wrong.

[Cyclone1]

Lee in 2005 was only a TS for SIX hours.

I'm sure there have been others, mostly ones that made landfall.

Yeah, but it was a tropical depression for longer than twelve.

This is apparently TD3 one advisory , TS Chantal next advisory, Gone.

[Chacor]

[Cyclone1]

An Icelandic landfall? Weird. I think Karl was the last brush that island had with a post tropical cyclone. Or was it Maria?

[Chacor]

Lee in 2005 was only a TS for SIX hours.

I'm sure there have been others, mostly ones that made landfall.

Yeah, but it was a tropical depression for longer than twelve.

This is apparently TD3 one advisory , TS Chantal next advisory, Gone.

Uhm... advisories are every six hours. The TS forecast is for 12 hours. More than three advisories definitely if this forecast verifies.