Tropical Storm FITOW (WPAC): Disc, Analysis & Imagery

[Typhoon Hunter]

The Wpac is having a very slow season so far this year. The average number of systems by 27th August is 13.5 according to Digital Typhoon, however this year there have only been 8 storms so far.

However, Invest 94W has caught my eye and is starting to get it's act together.

JMA are listing this as a TD - TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 16N 151E WNW 10 KT.

ECMWF and GFS have picked up on this. ECWMF develop a weak system and take it north to the east of Japan. GFS are more aggressive in developing this and take it closer to Japan, skirting the east coast.

866
TPPN10 PGTW 270018

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE EAST OF GUAM

B. 26/2330Z

C. 13.8N/2

D. 150.4E/0

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T1.5/1.5/STT: D0.5/12HRS (26/2330Z)

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI LLCC

40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CONVECTION WRAPS .55 ON LOG 10 SPIRAL
FOR AN UNREP DT OF 2.5. DBO PT OF 1.5. FIX LOCATION WAS
REPOSITIONED WITH THE RECENT AVAILABILITY OF
MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY.

TORREY

[Chacor]

WWJP25 RJTD 270000
WARNING AND SUMMARY 270000.
WARNING VALID 280000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK MIDDLE OF SEA OF JAPAN
YELLOW SEA.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 40N 144E 44N 146E
46N 150E 51N 157E 60N 164E 60N 180E 38N 180E 36N 166E 39N 160E 39N
150E 40N 144E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 996 HPA AT 53N 150E ENE 10 KT.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 15N 150E ALMOST STATIONARY.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 14N 114E WSW SLOWLY.
HIGH 1016 HPA AT 27N 135E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1022 HPA AT 56N 178E SE 10 KT.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 37N 122E TO 38N 127E 38N 135E 39N 140E 41N 147E
42N 150E.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

[Chacor]

239
TPPN10 PGTW 270618

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE EAST OF GUAM

B. 27/0530Z

C. 14.1N/6

D. 151.2E/9

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T1.0/1.5/S0.0/24HRS STT: W0.5/06HRS (27/0530Z)

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI LLCC

49A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. CONVECTION SHEARED 63NM
FROM LLCC, YIELDING AN UNREP DT OF 2.5. DBO PT OF 1.0.

TORREY

[Chacor]

Probably a different storm, but EURO has something big off Japan in 8 to 9 days...

[HURAKAN]

The best you can get today in the tropics.

[Typhoon Hunter]

Down to 1004 hPa now. ECMWF still going for something large hitting Japan - it appears to be this disturbance.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 18N 154E ALMOST STATIONARY.

[Chacor]

If this system continues its NE movement it's probably this one ECMWF was picking up on (72 hr was near 160E).

Latest IR appears to have weakened since Sandy's image post above:

[Chacor]

WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA
AT 17.9N 154.4E SOUTH OF MINAMITORISIMA ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

[cycloneye]

So Chacor,what is this,a TD or still a invest?

[Chacor]

So Chacor,what is this,a TD or still a invest?

The JTWC/NRL have not initiated warnings and still consider it an INVEST. JMA (RSMC) have had this as a TD for a few days now. So it's both, sorta.

[RL3AO]

Looks like we have a JTWC TD... 10W.NONAME on NRL.

[cycloneye]

I edited the title of thread.

[P.K.]

WWJP25 RJTD 281800
WARNING AND SUMMARY 281800.
WARNING VALID 291800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1002 HPA
AT 18.5N 155.0E SOUTH OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 10
KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER SEA OF OKHOTSK.
WARNING.
DENSE FOG OBSERVED LOCALLY OVER WATERS BOUNDED BY 42N 143E 46N 150E
51N 157E 60N 164E 60N 180E 40N 180E 37N 164E 36N 144E 40N 147E 42N
143E.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1006 HPA AT 33N 121E NE SLOWLY.
LOW 1002 HPA AT 57N 152E ESE SLOWLY.
LOW 1008 HPA AT 44N 159E ENE 20 KT.
HIGH 1012 HPA AT 44N 128E SE 15 KT.
HIGH 1012 HPA AT 23N 129E ESE SLOWLY.
STATIONARY FRONT FROM 35N 122E TO 36N 127E 35N 135E 35N 140E 36N 144E
37N 147E 39N 150E 41N 155E 44N 159E 44N 165E.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

[RL3AO]

Still not up on the JTWC site.

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

Looking good.

[Typhoon Hunter]

JMA expect this to intensify quite quickly.

TD
Issued at 00:50 UTC, 29 August 2007
<Analyses at 29/00 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N21°10'(21.2°)
E155°40'(155.7°)
Direction and speed of movement N 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 1000hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 15m/s(30kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23m/s(45kt)

<Forecast for 30/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N23°00'(23.0°)
E157°00'(157.0°)
Direction and speed of movement N Slowly
Central pressure 992hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 23m/s(45kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35m/s(65kt)
Radius of probability circle 280km(150NM)

For those who are interested JTWC have issued first warning and expect a typhoon in 3 days. Initial track is NE before it re-curves the opposite was so to speak and heads west.

Latest T# in my inbox was 3. I'm going to be on Hong Kong until Sunday so probably won't be able to pay as much attention to this as I would like.

[RL3AO]

Did the JMA change their advisory format?

[HURAKAN]

NRL: 35 knots

[Chacor]

WTPQ30 RJTD 290000

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 1 FOR TD LOCATED AT 21.2N 155.7E
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN.
3.MOTION FORECAST
POSITION ACCURACY AT 290000 UTC IS POOR.
TD WILL DECELERATE FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
TD WILL MOVE NORTH FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
TD WILL BE GRADED UP TO TS WITHIN 24 HOURS.
TD WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE SPIRAL CLOUD BANDS HAVE BECOME WELL ORGANIZED AND CYCLONE WILL STAY IN HIGH SST AREA.
FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.=