Hurricane FELIX: Caribbean-Discussions

[cycloneye]

Post away.

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=97500&start=0

Link to invest 94L thread.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


This will get intense!! Look how convection is just exploding (I lost the
link sorry)!

Hurricane by Sunday
Major Hurricane by Tuesday.
-little shear
-explosive heat content of oceans
-lots of moisture
-this looks like a beast of a storm!!!

[Typhoon_Willie]

Forecast Advisory number 1 on TD#6...

000
WTNT21 KNHC 312045
TCMAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
2100 UTC FRI AUG 31 2007

AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE ISLANDS OF ST. VINCENT AND THE
GRENADINES. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

AT 5 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR TOBAGO AND THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF
TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GRENADA
AND ITS DEPENDENCIES.

AT 5 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES AND ARUBA
HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE ISLANDS OF
ARUBA...BONAIRE AND CURACAO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 5 PM AST...THE GOVERNMENT OF VENEZUELA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF VENEZUELA FROM CUMANA TO
PEDERNALES INCLUDING THE ISLAND OF MARGARITA.

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS MAY SPREAD OVER ST. LUCIA OVERNIGHT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 58.6W AT 31/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 58.6W AT 31/2100Z
AT 31/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 57.9W

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 12.2N 60.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 12.9N 64.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 13.6N 67.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 14.3N 71.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 15.3N 78.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 45SE 45SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 16.0N 83.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 17.0N 88.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

[Brent]

[El Nino]

Maybe a major hurricane, but not as strong as Dean. But C-America should look out : a TS is enough to destroy a lot of things over there !

[Beam]

That seems like a fairly conservative intensity forecast...

[RL3AO]

Well. It will be getting in that incredibly warm water of the west caribbean. We know what storms can do there.

[chadtm80]

storms in similar area, similar time frame, similar track...

[Extremeweatherguy]

The Edith track is the one that concerns me the most. Hopefully this does not become another Edith.

[RL3AO]

I'm scared what a storm in the Caribbean with currently low shear could do to Nicaragua and Belize.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Still a 988 mb per AccuWeather


http://pro.accuweather.com/adcbin/profe ... de=uhad6_1

[Hello32020]

Still a 988 mb per AccuWeather


http://pro.accuweather.com/adcbin/profe ... de=uhad6_1

Amazing how that hasn't been fixed.

[Ed Mahmoud]

NHC intensity probabilities aren't that high thru 72 hours...

[Buck]

I was looking at other Belize hurricanes since that is definitely a potential target for this one. The list isn't inspiring... Fifi, Hattie, Iris, Keith...

[Blown Away]

(2) low riders through the Caribbean. Are these steering currents part of a developing La Nina? What years had similar pattern with a late season La Nina?

[weatherguru18]

Was Edith the last storm to affect the island of Aruba directly? If not, what was the last storm?

[ConvergenceZone]

It's very possible that this can effect the USA. The models do tend to bend it more north towards the end of the track, so it's possible they are sensing it will get picked up and pushed North. Although I called "Mexico" far off in Advance when Dean was in this position, I don't feel quite as comfortable saying "Mexico" with this TD. I think this has a better shot of hitting Texas in the long run, although the current track it's on looks good prior to recurvature.

[hurricanetrack]

You know, I was just thinking about that- a bend out of the BOC is possible if the cyclone is not destroyed over Yucatan- assuming it gets to the Yucatan.

I wonder if the GFS will ever "see" it?

Most likely this is headed almost due west for a long, long time but that turn to the north later on- 7 days from now- is not out of the realm of possibilty.

[CrazyC83]

I think Edith is a good barometer for this - albeit probably (no promises) not as strong.

[AnnularCane]

Well, hopefully, unlike Edith, this one won't bounce off the coast and head NE.