SUBTROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072007
0300 UTC SAT SEP 08 2007
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA AND NORTH CAROLINA COAST FROM EDISTO BEACH NORTHWARD TO
OREGON INLET...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO SOUND. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.4N 72.2W AT 08/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.4N 72.2W AT 08/0300Z
AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.1N 71.7W
FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 31.1N 73.7W...SUBTROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 32.3N 75.5W...SUBTROPICAL
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 33.5N 76.8W...TROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 40SE 40SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 35.0N 76.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 40SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 37.5N 73.5W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 40.5N 67.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 43.0N 58.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.4N 72.2W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN/ROBERTS
T Depression GABRIELLE : Advisories= Last Advisory Written
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T Depression GABRIELLE : Advisories= Last Advisory Written
Last edited by Brent on Fri Sep 07, 2007 9:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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WTNT32 KNHC 080243
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
SUBTROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072007
1100 PM EDT FRI SEP 07 2007
...LOW PRESSURE AREA OFF SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
DEVELOPS INTO SUBTROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA AND NORTH CAROLINA COAST FROM EDISTO BEACH NORTHWARD TO
OREGON INLET...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO SOUND. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE BROAD AND ELONGATED CENTER OF
SUBTROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.4 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 72.2 WEST OR ABOUT 385 MILES...625 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAPE
LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA.
THE STORM IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...16
KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
WINDS OF 40 MPH EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM TO THE NORTH
OF THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1011 MB...29.85 INCHES.
GABRIELLE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2
TO 4 INCHES ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND NORTH
CAROLINA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...30.4 N...72.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN/ROBERTS
WTNT32 KNHC 080243
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
SUBTROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072007
1100 PM EDT FRI SEP 07 2007
...LOW PRESSURE AREA OFF SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
DEVELOPS INTO SUBTROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA AND NORTH CAROLINA COAST FROM EDISTO BEACH NORTHWARD TO
OREGON INLET...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO SOUND. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE BROAD AND ELONGATED CENTER OF
SUBTROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.4 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 72.2 WEST OR ABOUT 385 MILES...625 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAPE
LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA.
THE STORM IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...16
KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
WINDS OF 40 MPH EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM TO THE NORTH
OF THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1011 MB...29.85 INCHES.
GABRIELLE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2
TO 4 INCHES ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND NORTH
CAROLINA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...30.4 N...72.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN/ROBERTS
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WTNT42 KNHC 080316
TCDAT2
SUBTROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072007
1100 PM EDT FRI SEP 07 2007
THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER INVESTIGATING THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U. S. COAST COULD NOT FIND A
WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION...REPORTING INSTEAD A VERY ELONGATED
CENTER. SUBSEQUENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE CIRCULATION IS
SLIGHTLY BETTER DEFINED...BUT IS STILL BROAD AND ELONGATED. THE
AIRCRAFT FOUND 48 KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS ABOUT 85 N MI NORTHEAST OF
THE CENTER AND A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF ABOUT 1011 MB. BASED ON THE
LARGE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS...THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE...AND THE
PROXIMITY OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST...THE SYSTEM
IS DESIGNATED A SUBTROPICAL STORM WITH WINDS OF 40 KT.
GABRIELL IS MOVING 300/8 BETWEEN A DEEP LAYER RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THE CYCLONE TO RECURVE
AROUND THE WESTERN END OF THE EASTWARD-MOVING RIDGE DURING THE
NEXT 48-72 HR. THE MODELS DISAGREE...HOWEVER...ON EXACTLY WHERE AND
WHEN THAT TURN WILL OCCUR. THE GFDL IS THE LEFTMOST SOLUTION WITH
A FORECAST TRACK INTO EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA IN ABOUT 36 HR...
FOLLOWED BY A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE UKMET...NOGAPS...AND GFS CALL FOR LANDFALL
IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA IN 36-48 HR...FOLLOWED BY RECURVATURE
INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE GFDL TRACK MAY BE RESULTING FROM HAVING TOO
DEEP OF A VORTEX INITIALLY...WHICH RESULTS IN TOO MUCH STEERING
INFLUENCE FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW. THUS...THE FORECAST TRACK
FOLLOWS THE MORE EASTWARD SCENARIO OF THE OTHER MODELS.
THERE ARE CURRENTLY MANY NEGATIVE FACTORS INVOLVED IN THE FUTURE
DEVELOPMENT OF GABRIELLE. THE STORM HAS COOLER AIR TO THE NORTH
AT LOW LEVELS...VERY DRY AIR TO THE SOUTH AND WEST AT THE UPPER
LEVELS...IS EXPERIENCING SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...AND IS
PASSING OVER WATERS THAT HAVE COOLED A FEW DEGREES OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE POSITIVE SIDE...THE SHEAR MAY DECREASE AS
GABRIELLE APPROACHES THE COAST...AND THIS COULD OCCUR OVER THE DEEP
WARM WATER OF THE GULF STREAM. THE SHIPS MODEL CALLS FOR A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 63 KT...THE GFDL 68 KT...AND THE HWRF 37 KT. GIVEN
ALL THE NEGATIVES...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL STAY ON THE LOW
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE...CALLING FOR A PEAK INTENSITY OF 50 KT NEAR
LANDFALL. AFTER RECURVATURE...GABRIELLE SHOULD GRADUALLY MERGE
WITH A FRONTAL ZONE AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF CENTER REFORMATION
DUE TO THE ELONGATED NATURE OF THE SYSTEM. WHILE SUCH REFORMATION
WOULD NOT CHANGE THE OVERALL STEERING PATTERN...IT COULD HAVE AN
AFFECT ON IF AND WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 08/0300Z 30.4N 72.2W 40 KT...SUBTROPICAL
12HR VT 08/1200Z 31.1N 73.7W 40 KT...SUBTROPICAL
24HR VT 09/0000Z 32.3N 75.5W 40 KT...SUBTROPICAL
36HR VT 09/1200Z 33.5N 76.8W 45 KT...TROPICAL
48HR VT 10/0000Z 35.0N 76.6W 50 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 11/0000Z 37.5N 73.5W 40 KT...OVER WATER
96HR VT 12/0000Z 40.5N 67.5W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 13/0000Z 43.0N 58.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN/ROBERTS
WTNT42 KNHC 080316
TCDAT2
SUBTROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072007
1100 PM EDT FRI SEP 07 2007
THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER INVESTIGATING THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U. S. COAST COULD NOT FIND A
WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION...REPORTING INSTEAD A VERY ELONGATED
CENTER. SUBSEQUENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE CIRCULATION IS
SLIGHTLY BETTER DEFINED...BUT IS STILL BROAD AND ELONGATED. THE
AIRCRAFT FOUND 48 KT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS ABOUT 85 N MI NORTHEAST OF
THE CENTER AND A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF ABOUT 1011 MB. BASED ON THE
LARGE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS...THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE...AND THE
PROXIMITY OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST...THE SYSTEM
IS DESIGNATED A SUBTROPICAL STORM WITH WINDS OF 40 KT.
GABRIELL IS MOVING 300/8 BETWEEN A DEEP LAYER RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THE CYCLONE TO RECURVE
AROUND THE WESTERN END OF THE EASTWARD-MOVING RIDGE DURING THE
NEXT 48-72 HR. THE MODELS DISAGREE...HOWEVER...ON EXACTLY WHERE AND
WHEN THAT TURN WILL OCCUR. THE GFDL IS THE LEFTMOST SOLUTION WITH
A FORECAST TRACK INTO EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA IN ABOUT 36 HR...
FOLLOWED BY A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE UKMET...NOGAPS...AND GFS CALL FOR LANDFALL
IN EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA IN 36-48 HR...FOLLOWED BY RECURVATURE
INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE GFDL TRACK MAY BE RESULTING FROM HAVING TOO
DEEP OF A VORTEX INITIALLY...WHICH RESULTS IN TOO MUCH STEERING
INFLUENCE FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW. THUS...THE FORECAST TRACK
FOLLOWS THE MORE EASTWARD SCENARIO OF THE OTHER MODELS.
THERE ARE CURRENTLY MANY NEGATIVE FACTORS INVOLVED IN THE FUTURE
DEVELOPMENT OF GABRIELLE. THE STORM HAS COOLER AIR TO THE NORTH
AT LOW LEVELS...VERY DRY AIR TO THE SOUTH AND WEST AT THE UPPER
LEVELS...IS EXPERIENCING SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...AND IS
PASSING OVER WATERS THAT HAVE COOLED A FEW DEGREES OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE POSITIVE SIDE...THE SHEAR MAY DECREASE AS
GABRIELLE APPROACHES THE COAST...AND THIS COULD OCCUR OVER THE DEEP
WARM WATER OF THE GULF STREAM. THE SHIPS MODEL CALLS FOR A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 63 KT...THE GFDL 68 KT...AND THE HWRF 37 KT. GIVEN
ALL THE NEGATIVES...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL STAY ON THE LOW
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE...CALLING FOR A PEAK INTENSITY OF 50 KT NEAR
LANDFALL. AFTER RECURVATURE...GABRIELLE SHOULD GRADUALLY MERGE
WITH A FRONTAL ZONE AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL.
IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF CENTER REFORMATION
DUE TO THE ELONGATED NATURE OF THE SYSTEM. WHILE SUCH REFORMATION
WOULD NOT CHANGE THE OVERALL STEERING PATTERN...IT COULD HAVE AN
AFFECT ON IF AND WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 08/0300Z 30.4N 72.2W 40 KT...SUBTROPICAL
12HR VT 08/1200Z 31.1N 73.7W 40 KT...SUBTROPICAL
24HR VT 09/0000Z 32.3N 75.5W 40 KT...SUBTROPICAL
36HR VT 09/1200Z 33.5N 76.8W 45 KT...TROPICAL
48HR VT 10/0000Z 35.0N 76.6W 50 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 11/0000Z 37.5N 73.5W 40 KT...OVER WATER
96HR VT 12/0000Z 40.5N 67.5W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 13/0000Z 43.0N 58.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN/ROBERTS
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Brent
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Re: Subtropical Storm GABRIELLE (ATL): Advisories
BULLETIN
SUBTROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072007
200 AM EDT SAT SEP 08 2007
...SUBTROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA AND NORTH CAROLINA COAST FROM EDISTO BEACH NORTHWARD TO
OREGON INLET...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO SOUND. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 200 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE
WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.5 WEST OR
ABOUT 365 MILES...590 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH
CAROLINA.
THE STORM IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...16
KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
WINDS OF 40 MPH EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM TO THE NORTH
OF THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1011 MB...29.85 INCHES.
GABRIELLE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2
TO 4 INCHES ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND NORTH
CAROLINA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 200 AM EDT POSITION...30.5 N...72.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/AVILA
SUBTROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072007
200 AM EDT SAT SEP 08 2007
...SUBTROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA AND NORTH CAROLINA COAST FROM EDISTO BEACH NORTHWARD TO
OREGON INLET...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO SOUND. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 200 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE
WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 72.5 WEST OR
ABOUT 365 MILES...590 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH
CAROLINA.
THE STORM IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...16
KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
WINDS OF 40 MPH EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM TO THE NORTH
OF THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1011 MB...29.85 INCHES.
GABRIELLE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2
TO 4 INCHES ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND NORTH
CAROLINA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 200 AM EDT POSITION...30.5 N...72.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/AVILA
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Brent
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 37323
- Age: 36
- Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
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Re: Subtropical Storm GABRIELLE (ATL): Advisories
SUBTROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072007
0900 UTC SAT SEP 08 2007
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA AND NORTH CAROLINA COAST FROM EDISTO BEACH NORTHWARD TO
OREGON INLET...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO SOUND. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE
TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA LATER TODAY.
SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 73.5W AT 08/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 73.5W AT 08/0900Z
AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 73.0W
FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 31.8N 74.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 0SE 0SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 33.1N 76.2W...TROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 40SE 40SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 34.5N 76.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 36.0N 75.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 40SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 38.5N 71.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 30SW 30NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 41.0N 62.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 45.0N 50.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.9N 73.5W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/AVILA
BULLETIN
SUBTROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072007
500 AM AST SAT SEP 08 2007
...GABRIELLE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA AND NORTH CAROLINA COAST FROM EDISTO BEACH NORTHWARD TO
OREGON INLET...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO SOUND. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE
TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA LATER TODAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.5 WEST OR ABOUT
315 MILES...505 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA.
THE STORM IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AS GABRIELLE ACQUIRES
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.
WINDS OF 40 MPH EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM TO THE NORTH
OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1011 MB...29.85 INCHES.
GABRIELLE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2
TO 4 INCHES ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...30.9 N...73.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/AVILA
SUBTROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072007
500 AM EDT SAT SEP 08 2007
THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF GABRIELLE HAS IMPROVED EARLY THIS
MORNING. A CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND IS NOW LOCATED CLOSER TO THE
CENTER OF CIRCULATION OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN QUADRANTS...
WHICH COULD BE AN INDICATION THAT GABRIELLE IS GRADUALLY ACQUIRING
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. DVORAK INTENSITY CLASSIFICATIONS ARE
T 2.5/35 KT FROM SAB AND ST 2.5/35-40 KT FROM TAFB. BASED ON THIS...
GABRIELLE WILL REMAIN A SUBTROPICAL 40 KT STORM FOR THIS ADVISORY.
WHILE THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY OVER WARM WATERS...THE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING.
THEREFORE...ONLY SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED AS GABRIELLE
APPROACHES THE COAST. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH A BLEND OF THE
SHIPS...GFDL...AND HWRF INTENSITY GUIDANCE.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/10. GABRIELLE IS SITUATED BETWEEN AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO ITS SOUTHWEST AND A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC. AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVES WESTWARD AND
WEAKENS...GABRIELLE WILL BE STEERED AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE TOWARD THE COAST OF NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA IN THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO. THEREAFTER...GABRIELLE IS EXPECTED TO BE EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RESULTING IN AN
ACCELERATION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. BY DAYS 4 AND 5 GABRIELLE
SHOULD BE AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE...MOVING AWAY FROM THE UNITED
STATES. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL
MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS NOT SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT FROM THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY FOR A
PORTION OF THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 08/0900Z 30.9N 73.5W 40 KT
12HR VT 08/1800Z 31.8N 74.9W 45 KT
24HR VT 09/0600Z 33.1N 76.2W 50 KT...TROPICAL
36HR VT 09/1800Z 34.5N 76.6W 55 KT
48HR VT 10/0600Z 36.0N 75.5W 55 KT
72HR VT 11/0600Z 38.5N 71.0W 50 KT
96HR VT 12/0600Z 41.0N 62.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 13/0600Z 45.0N 50.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/AVILA
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072007
0900 UTC SAT SEP 08 2007
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA AND NORTH CAROLINA COAST FROM EDISTO BEACH NORTHWARD TO
OREGON INLET...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO SOUND. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE
TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA LATER TODAY.
SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 73.5W AT 08/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 73.5W AT 08/0900Z
AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 73.0W
FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 31.8N 74.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 0SE 0SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 33.1N 76.2W...TROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 40SE 40SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 34.5N 76.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 36.0N 75.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 40SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 38.5N 71.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 30SW 30NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 41.0N 62.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 45.0N 50.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.9N 73.5W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/AVILA
BULLETIN
SUBTROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072007
500 AM AST SAT SEP 08 2007
...GABRIELLE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA AND NORTH CAROLINA COAST FROM EDISTO BEACH NORTHWARD TO
OREGON INLET...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO SOUND. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING COULD BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF THE
TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA LATER TODAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.5 WEST OR ABOUT
315 MILES...505 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA.
THE STORM IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AS GABRIELLE ACQUIRES
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.
WINDS OF 40 MPH EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM TO THE NORTH
OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1011 MB...29.85 INCHES.
GABRIELLE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2
TO 4 INCHES ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...30.9 N...73.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/AVILA
SUBTROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072007
500 AM EDT SAT SEP 08 2007
THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF GABRIELLE HAS IMPROVED EARLY THIS
MORNING. A CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND IS NOW LOCATED CLOSER TO THE
CENTER OF CIRCULATION OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN QUADRANTS...
WHICH COULD BE AN INDICATION THAT GABRIELLE IS GRADUALLY ACQUIRING
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. DVORAK INTENSITY CLASSIFICATIONS ARE
T 2.5/35 KT FROM SAB AND ST 2.5/35-40 KT FROM TAFB. BASED ON THIS...
GABRIELLE WILL REMAIN A SUBTROPICAL 40 KT STORM FOR THIS ADVISORY.
WHILE THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY OVER WARM WATERS...THE UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING.
THEREFORE...ONLY SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED AS GABRIELLE
APPROACHES THE COAST. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH A BLEND OF THE
SHIPS...GFDL...AND HWRF INTENSITY GUIDANCE.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/10. GABRIELLE IS SITUATED BETWEEN AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO ITS SOUTHWEST AND A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC. AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVES WESTWARD AND
WEAKENS...GABRIELLE WILL BE STEERED AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE TOWARD THE COAST OF NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA IN THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO. THEREAFTER...GABRIELLE IS EXPECTED TO BE EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW RESULTING IN AN
ACCELERATION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. BY DAYS 4 AND 5 GABRIELLE
SHOULD BE AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE...MOVING AWAY FROM THE UNITED
STATES. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL
MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS NOT SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT FROM THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY FOR A
PORTION OF THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 08/0900Z 30.9N 73.5W 40 KT
12HR VT 08/1800Z 31.8N 74.9W 45 KT
24HR VT 09/0600Z 33.1N 76.2W 50 KT...TROPICAL
36HR VT 09/1800Z 34.5N 76.6W 55 KT
48HR VT 10/0600Z 36.0N 75.5W 55 KT
72HR VT 11/0600Z 38.5N 71.0W 50 KT
96HR VT 12/0600Z 41.0N 62.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 13/0600Z 45.0N 50.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/AVILA
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 142744
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
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Re: Subtropical Storm GABRIELLE (ATL): Advisories
081147
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
SUBTROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072007
800 AM EDT SAT SEP 08 2007
...GABRIELLE CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE CAROLINAS...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA AND NORTH CAROLINA COAST FROM EDISTO BEACH NORTHWARD TO
OREGON INLET...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO SOUND. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA LATER TODAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 800 AM AST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.8 WEST OR ABOUT
280 MILES...450 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA.
THE STORM IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AS GABRIELLE ACQUIRES MORE
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.
WINDS OF 40 MPH EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM TO THE NORTH
OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1011 MB...29.85 INCHES.
GABRIELLE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2
TO 4 INCHES ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 800 AM AST POSITION...31.2 N...73.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
SUBTROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 2A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072007
800 AM EDT SAT SEP 08 2007
...GABRIELLE CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE CAROLINAS...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA AND NORTH CAROLINA COAST FROM EDISTO BEACH NORTHWARD TO
OREGON INLET...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO SOUND. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR A PORTION OF
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA LATER TODAY.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 800 AM AST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.8 WEST OR ABOUT
280 MILES...450 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA.
THE STORM IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AS GABRIELLE ACQUIRES MORE
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.
WINDS OF 40 MPH EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM TO THE NORTH
OF THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1011 MB...29.85 INCHES.
GABRIELLE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2
TO 4 INCHES ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 800 AM AST POSITION...31.2 N...73.8 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
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WTNT22 KNHC 081441
TCMAT2
SUBTROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072007
1500 UTC SAT SEP 08 2007
AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ISSUED FROM
SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA
BORDER...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBERMARLE SOUNDS. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AT 11 AM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN VIRGINIA FROM NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER
NORTHWARD TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT ON THE ATLANTIC COAST AND TO NEW
POINT COMFORT ALONG CHESAPEAKE BAY.
AT 11 AM EDT...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST
OF NORTH CAROLINA FROM SOUTH OF SURF CITY SOUTHWARD TO CAPE FEAR.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 74.2W AT 08/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 0SE 0SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 74.2W AT 08/1500Z
AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.2N 73.8W
FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 32.4N 75.3W...TROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 0SE 0SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 33.8N 76.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 40SE 40SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 35.2N 75.6W...NEAR NC OUTER BANKS
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 40SE 40SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 36.4N 74.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 40SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 39.0N 68.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 30SW 30NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 44.0N 58.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 46.0N 46.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.5N 74.2W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
WTNT22 KNHC 081441
TCMAT2
SUBTROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072007
1500 UTC SAT SEP 08 2007
AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ISSUED FROM
SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA
BORDER...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBERMARLE SOUNDS. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AT 11 AM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN VIRGINIA FROM NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER
NORTHWARD TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT ON THE ATLANTIC COAST AND TO NEW
POINT COMFORT ALONG CHESAPEAKE BAY.
AT 11 AM EDT...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST
OF NORTH CAROLINA FROM SOUTH OF SURF CITY SOUTHWARD TO CAPE FEAR.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 74.2W AT 08/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 0SE 0SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 74.2W AT 08/1500Z
AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.2N 73.8W
FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 32.4N 75.3W...TROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 0SE 0SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 33.8N 76.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 40SE 40SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 35.2N 75.6W...NEAR NC OUTER BANKS
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 40SE 40SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 36.4N 74.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 25SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 40SW 75NW.
FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 39.0N 68.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 30SW 30NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 44.0N 58.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 46.0N 46.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.5N 74.2W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
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090
WTNT32 KNHC 081442
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
SUBTROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072007
1100 AM EDT SAT SEP 08 2007
...GABRIELLE CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD NORTH CAROLINA...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED...
AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ISSUED FROM
SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA
BORDER...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBERMARLE SOUNDS. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AT 11 AM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN VIRGINIA FROM NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER
NORTHWARD TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT ON THE ATLANTIC COAST AND TO NEW
POINT COMFORT ALONG CHESAPEAKE BAY.
AT 11 AM EDT...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST
OF NORTH CAROLINA FROM SOUTH OF SURF CITY SOUTHWARD TO CAPE FEAR.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.2 WEST OR ABOUT
255 MILES...410 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA.
GABRIELLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A
CONTINUED NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
GABRIELLE ACQUIRES MORE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.
WINDS OF 40 MPH EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM TO THE NORTH
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 3 FEET IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA AS GABRIELLE PASSES NEAR OR OVER THE COAST.
GABRIELLE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2
TO 4 INCHES ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...31.5 N...74.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
WTNT32 KNHC 081442
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
SUBTROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072007
1100 AM EDT SAT SEP 08 2007
...GABRIELLE CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD NORTH CAROLINA...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED...
AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ISSUED FROM
SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA
BORDER...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBERMARLE SOUNDS. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
AT 11 AM EDT...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN VIRGINIA FROM NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER
NORTHWARD TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT ON THE ATLANTIC COAST AND TO NEW
POINT COMFORT ALONG CHESAPEAKE BAY.
AT 11 AM EDT...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST
OF NORTH CAROLINA FROM SOUTH OF SURF CITY SOUTHWARD TO CAPE FEAR.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.2 WEST OR ABOUT
255 MILES...410 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA.
GABRIELLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR. A
CONTINUED NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
GABRIELLE ACQUIRES MORE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.
WINDS OF 40 MPH EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM TO THE NORTH
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 3 FEET IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA AS GABRIELLE PASSES NEAR OR OVER THE COAST.
GABRIELLE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2
TO 4 INCHES ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...31.5 N...74.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
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222
WTNT42 KNHC 081500
TCDAT2
SUBTROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072007
1100 AM EDT SAT SEP 08 2007
MORNING VISIBLE IMAGERY REVEALS A FULLY EXPOSED BUT WELL-DEFINED
LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF CIRCULATION. DEEP CONVECTION...BUT WITH
RELATIVELY WARM CLOUD TOPS NEAR -65C...REMAINS CONFINED NORTH OF
THE CENTER AND IS MOST ABUNDANT IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT WITH A
DISTANT AND THINNING BAND TO THE NORTHEAST. A QUIKSCAT OVERPASS AT
ABOUT 1115Z CAPTURED ONLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CIRCULATION...BUT
DID INDICATE SOME BELIEVABLE 40 KT RETRIEVALS BETWEEN ABOUT 60 AND
90 NMI FROM THE CENTER...SO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY REMAINS 40 KT.
EVEN THOUGH THE CONVECTION IS BECOMING MORE PERSISTENT NEAR THE
CENTER...THE STATUS REMAINS SUBTROPICAL GIVEN THAT THE RADIUS OF
MAXIMUM WINDS REMAINS LARGE. A SHIP WITH CALL SIGN DDSB2 RECENTLY
REPORTED WINDS OF 33 KT AND A PRESSURE OF 1011 MB ABOUT 20 NMI
NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER...SO THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS LOWERED
SLIGHTLY TO 1009 MB. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE GABRIELLE THIS AFTERNOON TO HELP US GET A
MORE THOROUGH LOOK AT THE WIND FIELD.
THE CENTER OF GABRIELLE IS MOVING JUST SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE
PREVIOUS OFFICIAL TRACK...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS
305/9...WHICH IS ALSO A TAD SLOWER THAN BEFORE. THE STORM
CONTINUES TO BE STEERED BY THE RIDGE TO ITS NORTHEAST...AND THE
FORECAST SCENARIO REMAINS THAT GABRIELLE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE AND INTO THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES
DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS GENERALLY
SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE INITIAL
MOTION...SO HAS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE NEW TRACK IS CLOSE TO A
BLEND OF THE HWRF...GFDL...AND GFS AND SHOWS LANDFALL ALONG THE
OUTER BANKS IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. THE SPREAD IN THE MODELS IS
SUFFICIENTLY LARGE...HOWEVER...THAT A LANDFALL FARTHER EAST OR NO
LANDFALL OF THE CENTER AT ALL ARE BOTH POSSIBILITIES. AFTER
PASSING NEAR OR OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...GABRIELLE SHOULD MOVE
FAIRLY QUICKLY BACK OUT TO SEA AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY DAY 4.
A SHORT WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY EXISTS FOR GABRIELLE TO STRENGTHEN
BEFORE REACHING NORTH CAROLINA...SINCE THE CURRENT SOUTHEASTERLY
WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO TEMPORARILY LESSEN
TONIGHT BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN TOMORROW AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO
THE SOUTHWEST MOVES FARTHER AWAY. GIVEN THE LIMITED EXTENT OF THE
CONVECTION CURRENTLY...THAT CHANGE IN ENVIRONMENT IS PROBABLY NOT
ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FORECAST OF SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING. THE NEW
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY IN
BRINGING GABRIELLE TO 55 KT BY 36 HOURS...IN LINE WITH MOST OF THE
OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST BEYOND 72 HOURS
AS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OCCURS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 08/1500Z 31.5N 74.2W 40 KT
12HR VT 09/0000Z 32.4N 75.3W 45 KT...TROPICAL
24HR VT 09/1200Z 33.8N 76.0W 50 KT
36HR VT 10/0000Z 35.2N 75.6W 55 KT...NEAR NC COAST
48HR VT 10/1200Z 36.4N 74.0W 55 KT
72HR VT 11/1200Z 39.0N 68.0W 55 KT
96HR VT 12/1200Z 44.0N 58.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 13/1200Z 46.0N 46.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
WTNT42 KNHC 081500
TCDAT2
SUBTROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072007
1100 AM EDT SAT SEP 08 2007
MORNING VISIBLE IMAGERY REVEALS A FULLY EXPOSED BUT WELL-DEFINED
LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF CIRCULATION. DEEP CONVECTION...BUT WITH
RELATIVELY WARM CLOUD TOPS NEAR -65C...REMAINS CONFINED NORTH OF
THE CENTER AND IS MOST ABUNDANT IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT WITH A
DISTANT AND THINNING BAND TO THE NORTHEAST. A QUIKSCAT OVERPASS AT
ABOUT 1115Z CAPTURED ONLY THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CIRCULATION...BUT
DID INDICATE SOME BELIEVABLE 40 KT RETRIEVALS BETWEEN ABOUT 60 AND
90 NMI FROM THE CENTER...SO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY REMAINS 40 KT.
EVEN THOUGH THE CONVECTION IS BECOMING MORE PERSISTENT NEAR THE
CENTER...THE STATUS REMAINS SUBTROPICAL GIVEN THAT THE RADIUS OF
MAXIMUM WINDS REMAINS LARGE. A SHIP WITH CALL SIGN DDSB2 RECENTLY
REPORTED WINDS OF 33 KT AND A PRESSURE OF 1011 MB ABOUT 20 NMI
NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER...SO THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS LOWERED
SLIGHTLY TO 1009 MB. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE GABRIELLE THIS AFTERNOON TO HELP US GET A
MORE THOROUGH LOOK AT THE WIND FIELD.
THE CENTER OF GABRIELLE IS MOVING JUST SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE
PREVIOUS OFFICIAL TRACK...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS
305/9...WHICH IS ALSO A TAD SLOWER THAN BEFORE. THE STORM
CONTINUES TO BE STEERED BY THE RIDGE TO ITS NORTHEAST...AND THE
FORECAST SCENARIO REMAINS THAT GABRIELLE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE AND INTO THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES
DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE HAS GENERALLY
SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE INITIAL
MOTION...SO HAS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE NEW TRACK IS CLOSE TO A
BLEND OF THE HWRF...GFDL...AND GFS AND SHOWS LANDFALL ALONG THE
OUTER BANKS IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. THE SPREAD IN THE MODELS IS
SUFFICIENTLY LARGE...HOWEVER...THAT A LANDFALL FARTHER EAST OR NO
LANDFALL OF THE CENTER AT ALL ARE BOTH POSSIBILITIES. AFTER
PASSING NEAR OR OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...GABRIELLE SHOULD MOVE
FAIRLY QUICKLY BACK OUT TO SEA AND BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BY DAY 4.
A SHORT WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY EXISTS FOR GABRIELLE TO STRENGTHEN
BEFORE REACHING NORTH CAROLINA...SINCE THE CURRENT SOUTHEASTERLY
WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO TEMPORARILY LESSEN
TONIGHT BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN TOMORROW AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO
THE SOUTHWEST MOVES FARTHER AWAY. GIVEN THE LIMITED EXTENT OF THE
CONVECTION CURRENTLY...THAT CHANGE IN ENVIRONMENT IS PROBABLY NOT
ENOUGH TO WARRANT A FORECAST OF SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING. THE NEW
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY IN
BRINGING GABRIELLE TO 55 KT BY 36 HOURS...IN LINE WITH MOST OF THE
OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST BEYOND 72 HOURS
AS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OCCURS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 08/1500Z 31.5N 74.2W 40 KT
12HR VT 09/0000Z 32.4N 75.3W 45 KT...TROPICAL
24HR VT 09/1200Z 33.8N 76.0W 50 KT
36HR VT 10/0000Z 35.2N 75.6W 55 KT...NEAR NC COAST
48HR VT 10/1200Z 36.4N 74.0W 55 KT
72HR VT 11/1200Z 39.0N 68.0W 55 KT
96HR VT 12/1200Z 44.0N 58.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 13/1200Z 46.0N 46.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
0 likes
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HURAKAN
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 46086
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
- Location: Key West, FL
- Contact:
380
WTNT32 KNHC 081800
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
SUBTROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072007
200 PM EDT SAT SEP 08 2007
...GABRIELLE CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD NORTH CAROLINA...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA
NORTHWARD TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING THE
PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
VIRGINIA FROM NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER NORTHWARD
TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT ON THE ATLANTIC COAST AND TO NEW POINT
COMFORT ALONG CHESAPEAKE BAY.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST
OF NORTH CAROLINA FROM SOUTH OF SURF CITY SOUTHWARD TO CAPE FEAR.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 200 PM AST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.1 WEST OR ABOUT
240 MILES...385 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA.
THE CENTER OF GABRIELLE HAS BEEN MOVING ERRATICALLY DURING THE PAST
FEW HOURS BUT IS MOVING GENERALLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9
MPH...14 KM/HR. A CONTINUED NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A SLIGHT
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON
THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF GABRIELLE WILL NEAR THE COAST OF NORTH
CAROLINA TOMORROW...BUT OUTER RAIN BANDS WILL LIKELY REACH THE
COAST TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
GABRIELLE ACQUIRES MORE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.
WINDS OF 40 MPH EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM TO THE NORTH
FROM THE CENTER.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 3 FEET IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA AS GABRIELLE PASSES NEAR OR OVER THE COAST.
GABRIELLE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2
TO 4 INCHES ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...31.8 N...74.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
WTNT32 KNHC 081800
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
SUBTROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 3A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072007
200 PM EDT SAT SEP 08 2007
...GABRIELLE CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD NORTH CAROLINA...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA
NORTHWARD TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING THE
PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
VIRGINIA FROM NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER NORTHWARD
TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT ON THE ATLANTIC COAST AND TO NEW POINT
COMFORT ALONG CHESAPEAKE BAY.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST
OF NORTH CAROLINA FROM SOUTH OF SURF CITY SOUTHWARD TO CAPE FEAR.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 200 PM AST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.1 WEST OR ABOUT
240 MILES...385 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA.
THE CENTER OF GABRIELLE HAS BEEN MOVING ERRATICALLY DURING THE PAST
FEW HOURS BUT IS MOVING GENERALLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9
MPH...14 KM/HR. A CONTINUED NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A SLIGHT
DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON
THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF GABRIELLE WILL NEAR THE COAST OF NORTH
CAROLINA TOMORROW...BUT OUTER RAIN BANDS WILL LIKELY REACH THE
COAST TONIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
GABRIELLE ACQUIRES MORE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.
WINDS OF 40 MPH EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM TO THE NORTH
FROM THE CENTER.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 3 FEET IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA AS GABRIELLE PASSES NEAR OR OVER THE COAST.
GABRIELLE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2
TO 4 INCHES ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 200 PM EDT POSITION...31.8 N...74.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
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Brent
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 37323
- Age: 36
- Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
- Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
- Contact:
Re: Subtropical Storm GABRIELLE (ATL): Advisories
TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072007
2100 UTC SAT SEP 08 2007
AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR A PORTION OF THE
COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA FROM SOUTH OF SURF CITY SOUTHWARD TO CAPE
FEAR HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SURF CITY NORTH
CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...
INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA FROM NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA
BORDER NORTHWARD TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT ON THE ATLANTIC COAST AND TO
NEW POINT COMFORT ALONG CHESAPEAKE BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.4N 74.7W AT 08/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 7 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.4N 74.7W AT 08/2100Z
AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 74.1W
FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 33.2N 75.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 34.6N 75.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 36.0N 74.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 0SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 37.6N 72.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 60SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 41.5N 65.5W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 30NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 46.0N 55.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.4N 74.7W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072007
2100 UTC SAT SEP 08 2007
AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR A PORTION OF THE
COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA FROM SOUTH OF SURF CITY SOUTHWARD TO CAPE
FEAR HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SURF CITY NORTH
CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...
INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA FROM NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA
BORDER NORTHWARD TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT ON THE ATLANTIC COAST AND TO
NEW POINT COMFORT ALONG CHESAPEAKE BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.4N 74.7W AT 08/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 7 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.4N 74.7W AT 08/2100Z
AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 74.1W
FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 33.2N 75.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 34.6N 75.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 36.0N 74.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 0SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 37.6N 72.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 60SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 41.5N 65.5W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 30NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 46.0N 55.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.4N 74.7W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
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Brent
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Re: Tropical Storm GABRIELLE (ATL): Advisories
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072007
500 PM EDT SAT SEP 08 2007
...GABRIELLE BECOMES TROPICAL...STILL FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AS IT
APPROACHES NORTH CAROLINA...
AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR A PORTION OF THE
COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA FROM SOUTH OF SURF CITY SOUTHWARD TO CAPE
FEAR HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SURF CITY NORTH
CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...
INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA FROM NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA
BORDER NORTHWARD TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT ON THE ATLANTIC COAST AND TO
NEW POINT COMFORT ALONG CHESAPEAKE BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.7 WEST OR ABOUT 185
MILES...300 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA.
GABRIELLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF GABRIELLE WILL BE NEAR OR OVER THE
COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT OUTER RAIN BANDS
WILL LIKELY REACH THE COAST TONIGHT.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 40 MPH...65
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HOWEVER...SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165
KM...TO THE NORTH FROM THE CENTER.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
WAS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 3 FEET IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA AS GABRIELLE PASSES NEAR OR OVER THE COAST.
GABRIELLE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1
TO 3 INCHES ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...32.4 N...74.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072007
500 PM EDT SAT SEP 08 2007
...GABRIELLE BECOMES TROPICAL...STILL FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AS IT
APPROACHES NORTH CAROLINA...
AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR A PORTION OF THE
COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA FROM SOUTH OF SURF CITY SOUTHWARD TO CAPE
FEAR HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SURF CITY NORTH
CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...
INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA FROM NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA
BORDER NORTHWARD TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT ON THE ATLANTIC COAST AND TO
NEW POINT COMFORT ALONG CHESAPEAKE BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.7 WEST OR ABOUT 185
MILES...300 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA.
GABRIELLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF GABRIELLE WILL BE NEAR OR OVER THE
COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT OUTER RAIN BANDS
WILL LIKELY REACH THE COAST TONIGHT.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 40 MPH...65
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. HOWEVER...SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165
KM...TO THE NORTH FROM THE CENTER.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
WAS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 3 FEET IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA AS GABRIELLE PASSES NEAR OR OVER THE COAST.
GABRIELLE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1
TO 3 INCHES ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...32.4 N...74.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
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Brent
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- Age: 36
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Re: Tropical Storm GABRIELLE (ATL): Advisories
TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072007
500 PM EDT SAT SEP 08 2007
AFTER BEING BRIEFLY INVOLVED WITH THE CIRCULATION CENTER THIS
MORNING...THE CONVECTION HAS SPENT MOST OF THE DAY QUITE SEPARATED
FROM THE CENTER...AND THE BAND IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT HAS
DISSIPATED. RECENTLY...HOWEVER...THE CIRCULATION CENTER AND THE
REMAINING CONVECTION IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT ARE IN THE
PROCESS OF BEING REUNITED. GABRIELLE HAS TAKEN ON MORE OF
THE APPEARANCE OF A SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND BOTH AMSU AND
AIRCRAFT DATA SUGGEST THERE IS A WEAK WARM CORE...SO GABRIELLE IS
BEING DESIGNATED AS A TROPICAL STORM ON THIS ADVISORY. MAXIMUM
WINDS FROM THE AIR FORCE PLANE AT THE FLIGHT-LEVEL OF ABOUT 1000 FT
WERE ONLY 39 KT...EVEN WITHIN THE CONVECTION IN THE NORTHWESTERN
QUADRANT. GIVEN THOSE DATA AND THE OVERALL LESSENING OF THE
CONVECTIVE DEPTH AND COVERAGE...THE INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 35 KT.
THE CURRENT SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR MIGHT STILL LESSEN TEMPORARILY
TONIGHT...BUT WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTH TOMORROW. THAT WINDOW
OF OPPORTUNITY FOR STRENGTHENING IS THE BASIS FOR THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TO STILL CALL FOR SLIGHT STRENGTHENING. THE NEW FORECAST
IS LOWERED COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...CALLING FOR
GABRIELLE TO REACH ONLY 45 KT NEAR THE COAST OF NORTH
CAROLINA...AND THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE GUIDANCE.
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST ONCE GABRIELLE TURNS
NORTHEASTWARD AND EVENTUALLY BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL.
THE EXPOSED CIRCULATION CENTER IS EASY TO FIND...BUT THE SMALLER
SWIRL THAT APPEARS TO BE THE CENTER ON SATELLITE IMAGERY SEEMS TO
HAVE ROTATED ABOUT A LARGER MEAN CENTER DURING THE DAY. THE MOTION
OF THE MEAN CENTER IS NORTHWESTWARD AND SLOWER THAN BEFORE...OR
ROUGHLY 320/7. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST AND SUPPORTING
REASONING HAVE NOT NOTICEABLY CHANGED...WITH GABRIELLE EXPECTED TO
ROTATE AROUND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AND INTO THE MIDLATITUDE
WESTERLIES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...PASSING NEAR OR OVER THE
OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA ALONG THE WAY IN 24-36 HOURS. THE
NEW FORECAST ALSO CALLS FOR GABRIELLE TO BE ABSORBED BY A LARGER
SYSTEM OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC BY 120 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 08/2100Z 32.4N 74.7W 35 KT
12HR VT 09/0600Z 33.2N 75.4W 40 KT
24HR VT 09/1800Z 34.6N 75.8W 45 KT
36HR VT 10/0600Z 36.0N 74.8W 45 KT
48HR VT 10/1800Z 37.6N 72.8W 45 KT
72HR VT 11/1800Z 41.5N 65.5W 45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 12/1800Z 46.0N 55.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 13/1800Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072007
500 PM EDT SAT SEP 08 2007
AFTER BEING BRIEFLY INVOLVED WITH THE CIRCULATION CENTER THIS
MORNING...THE CONVECTION HAS SPENT MOST OF THE DAY QUITE SEPARATED
FROM THE CENTER...AND THE BAND IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT HAS
DISSIPATED. RECENTLY...HOWEVER...THE CIRCULATION CENTER AND THE
REMAINING CONVECTION IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT ARE IN THE
PROCESS OF BEING REUNITED. GABRIELLE HAS TAKEN ON MORE OF
THE APPEARANCE OF A SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND BOTH AMSU AND
AIRCRAFT DATA SUGGEST THERE IS A WEAK WARM CORE...SO GABRIELLE IS
BEING DESIGNATED AS A TROPICAL STORM ON THIS ADVISORY. MAXIMUM
WINDS FROM THE AIR FORCE PLANE AT THE FLIGHT-LEVEL OF ABOUT 1000 FT
WERE ONLY 39 KT...EVEN WITHIN THE CONVECTION IN THE NORTHWESTERN
QUADRANT. GIVEN THOSE DATA AND THE OVERALL LESSENING OF THE
CONVECTIVE DEPTH AND COVERAGE...THE INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 35 KT.
THE CURRENT SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR MIGHT STILL LESSEN TEMPORARILY
TONIGHT...BUT WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTH TOMORROW. THAT WINDOW
OF OPPORTUNITY FOR STRENGTHENING IS THE BASIS FOR THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TO STILL CALL FOR SLIGHT STRENGTHENING. THE NEW FORECAST
IS LOWERED COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...CALLING FOR
GABRIELLE TO REACH ONLY 45 KT NEAR THE COAST OF NORTH
CAROLINA...AND THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE GUIDANCE.
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST ONCE GABRIELLE TURNS
NORTHEASTWARD AND EVENTUALLY BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL.
THE EXPOSED CIRCULATION CENTER IS EASY TO FIND...BUT THE SMALLER
SWIRL THAT APPEARS TO BE THE CENTER ON SATELLITE IMAGERY SEEMS TO
HAVE ROTATED ABOUT A LARGER MEAN CENTER DURING THE DAY. THE MOTION
OF THE MEAN CENTER IS NORTHWESTWARD AND SLOWER THAN BEFORE...OR
ROUGHLY 320/7. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST AND SUPPORTING
REASONING HAVE NOT NOTICEABLY CHANGED...WITH GABRIELLE EXPECTED TO
ROTATE AROUND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE AND INTO THE MIDLATITUDE
WESTERLIES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...PASSING NEAR OR OVER THE
OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA ALONG THE WAY IN 24-36 HOURS. THE
NEW FORECAST ALSO CALLS FOR GABRIELLE TO BE ABSORBED BY A LARGER
SYSTEM OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC BY 120 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 08/2100Z 32.4N 74.7W 35 KT
12HR VT 09/0600Z 33.2N 75.4W 40 KT
24HR VT 09/1800Z 34.6N 75.8W 45 KT
36HR VT 10/0600Z 36.0N 74.8W 45 KT
48HR VT 10/1800Z 37.6N 72.8W 45 KT
72HR VT 11/1800Z 41.5N 65.5W 45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 12/1800Z 46.0N 55.0W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 13/1800Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
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Re: Tropical Storm GABRIELLE (ATL): Advisories
000
WTNT32 KNHC 082340
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072007
800 PM AST SAT SEP 08 2007
...GABRIELLE A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD
TOWARD THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SURF CITY NORTH
CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...
INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA FROM NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA
BORDER NORTHWARD TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT ON THE ATLANTIC COAST AND TO
NEW POINT COMFORT ALONG CHESAPEAKE BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 800 PM AST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.2 WEST OR ABOUT 150
MILES...245 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA.
GABRIELLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...14 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF GABRIELLE WILL BE NEAR OR OVER THE
COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT OUTER RAIN BANDS
WILL LIKELY REACH THE COAST IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT GABRIELLE HAS BECOME A
LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED...AND SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...
165 KM...TO THE NORTH FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 3 FEET IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA AS GABRIELLE PASSES NEAR OR OVER THE COAST.
GABRIELLE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1
TO 3 INCHES ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 800 PM AST POSITION...32.7 N...75.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
WTNT32 KNHC 082340
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072007
800 PM AST SAT SEP 08 2007
...GABRIELLE A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD
TOWARD THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SURF CITY NORTH
CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...
INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN
THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA FROM NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA
BORDER NORTHWARD TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT ON THE ATLANTIC COAST AND TO
NEW POINT COMFORT ALONG CHESAPEAKE BAY. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 800 PM AST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.2 WEST OR ABOUT 150
MILES...245 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA.
GABRIELLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...14 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF GABRIELLE WILL BE NEAR OR OVER THE
COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA TOMORROW AFTERNOON...BUT OUTER RAIN BANDS
WILL LIKELY REACH THE COAST IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT GABRIELLE HAS BECOME A
LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED...AND SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...
165 KM...TO THE NORTH FROM THE CENTER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 3 FEET IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA AS GABRIELLE PASSES NEAR OR OVER THE COAST.
GABRIELLE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1
TO 3 INCHES ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA...WITH
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 800 PM AST POSITION...32.7 N...75.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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Brent
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Re: Tropical Storm GABRIELLE (ATL): Advisories
TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072007
0300 UTC SUN SEP 09 2007
AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
THE ATLANTIC COAST OF VIRGINIA FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA
BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN
EFFECT FROM SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO CAPE CHARLES
LIGHT VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA
FOR THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.1N 75.7W AT 09/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.1N 75.7W AT 09/0300Z
AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.7N 75.4W
FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 34.3N 75.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 35.8N 75.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 37.1N 74.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 0SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 39.0N 71.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 60SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 43.0N 62.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 30NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.1N 75.7W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072007
0300 UTC SUN SEP 09 2007
AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
THE ATLANTIC COAST OF VIRGINIA FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA
BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN
EFFECT FROM SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO CAPE CHARLES
LIGHT VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA
FOR THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.1N 75.7W AT 09/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.1N 75.7W AT 09/0300Z
AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.7N 75.4W
FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 34.3N 75.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 35.8N 75.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 37.1N 74.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 0SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 39.0N 71.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 75SE 60SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 43.0N 62.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 30NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.1N 75.7W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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Brent
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Re: Tropical Storm GABRIELLE (ATL): Advisories
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072007
1100 PM EDT SAT SEP 08 2007
...OUTER RAINBANDS OF GABRIELLE MOVING ONTO THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER
BANKS...NEW TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED...
AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
THE ATLANTIC COAST OF VIRGINIA FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA
BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN
EFFECT FROM SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO CAPE CHARLES
LIGHT VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA
FOR THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.7 WEST OR ABOUT 115
MILES...185 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA.
GABRIELLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF GABRIELLE NEAR OR OVER THE
COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA TOMORROW. OUTER RAIN BANDS ARE SPREADING
ONTO THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST AT THIS TIME.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE
NORTH CAROLINA COAST.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 3 FEET IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA AS GABRIELLE PASSES NEAR OR OVER THE COAST.
GABRIELLE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1
TO 3 INCHES ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND
SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...33.1 N...75.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072007
1100 PM EDT SAT SEP 08 2007
...OUTER RAINBANDS OF GABRIELLE MOVING ONTO THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER
BANKS...NEW TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED...
AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
THE ATLANTIC COAST OF VIRGINIA FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA
BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN
EFFECT FROM SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO CAPE CHARLES
LIGHT VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT IN SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA
FOR THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 33.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.7 WEST OR ABOUT 115
MILES...185 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA.
GABRIELLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF GABRIELLE NEAR OR OVER THE
COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA TOMORROW. OUTER RAIN BANDS ARE SPREADING
ONTO THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST AT THIS TIME.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE
NORTH CAROLINA COAST.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 3 FEET IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
WARNING AREA AS GABRIELLE PASSES NEAR OR OVER THE COAST.
GABRIELLE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1
TO 3 INCHES ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS OF NORTH CAROLINA AND
SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...33.1 N...75.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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Brent
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 37323
- Age: 36
- Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
- Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
- Contact:
Re: Tropical Storm GABRIELLE (ATL): Advisories
TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072007
1100 PM EDT SAT SEP 08 2007
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF GABRIELLE HAS DISAPPEARED UNDER A CIRRUS
OVERCAST CAUSED BY A STRONG CONVECTIVE BURST...WHICH INCLUDED A
SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM WITH A WELL-DEFINED MESOCYCLONE ON THE
MOREHEAD CITY WSR-88D. THE BURST HAS ENDED FOR NOW...BUT HAS LEFT
A MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION EVIDENT IN THE DOPPLER RADAR DATA. WHILE
THE RADAR WINDS DO NOT YET SHOW AN OBVIOUS INCREASE IN INTENSITY...
A RECENT QUIKSCAT OVERPASS SHOWED A FEW 40-45 KT WIND VECTORS THAT
WERE POSSIBLY RAIN CONTAMINATED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 35
KT...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THIS IS A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE.
THE SURFACE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE IN BOTH SATELLITE AND
RADAR IMAGERY...BUT IS ESTIMATED TO BE A LITTLE TO THE EAST OR
SOUTHEAST OF THE MID-LEVEL CENTER. THIS MAKES THE INITIAL MOTION A
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 325/10. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TRACK
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY OTHER THAN THE SLIGHTLY MORE WESTERLY POSITION.
GABRIELLE SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF A
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT 12-24
HR. BEYOND THAT TIME...IT SHOULD ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
WESTERLIES.
THE CENTER OF GABRIELLE IS PASSING OVER THE GULF STREAM...AND THE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR THAT WAS AFFECTING THE SYSTEM EARLIER IS
DIMINISHING. BASED ON THIS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SOME
STRENGTHENING BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST.
GABRIELLE IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY DURING EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION...AND IT SHOULD BE ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL
LOW BETWEEN 72-96 HR.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 09/0300Z 33.1N 75.7W 35 KT
12HR VT 09/1200Z 34.3N 75.9W 40 KT
24HR VT 10/0000Z 35.8N 75.6W 45 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 10/1200Z 37.1N 74.0W 45 KT...OVER WATER
48HR VT 11/0000Z 39.0N 71.0W 45 KT
72HR VT 12/0000Z 43.0N 62.5W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072007
1100 PM EDT SAT SEP 08 2007
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF GABRIELLE HAS DISAPPEARED UNDER A CIRRUS
OVERCAST CAUSED BY A STRONG CONVECTIVE BURST...WHICH INCLUDED A
SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM WITH A WELL-DEFINED MESOCYCLONE ON THE
MOREHEAD CITY WSR-88D. THE BURST HAS ENDED FOR NOW...BUT HAS LEFT
A MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION EVIDENT IN THE DOPPLER RADAR DATA. WHILE
THE RADAR WINDS DO NOT YET SHOW AN OBVIOUS INCREASE IN INTENSITY...
A RECENT QUIKSCAT OVERPASS SHOWED A FEW 40-45 KT WIND VECTORS THAT
WERE POSSIBLY RAIN CONTAMINATED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 35
KT...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THIS IS A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE.
THE SURFACE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE IN BOTH SATELLITE AND
RADAR IMAGERY...BUT IS ESTIMATED TO BE A LITTLE TO THE EAST OR
SOUTHEAST OF THE MID-LEVEL CENTER. THIS MAKES THE INITIAL MOTION A
SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 325/10. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TRACK
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY OTHER THAN THE SLIGHTLY MORE WESTERLY POSITION.
GABRIELLE SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF A
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT 12-24
HR. BEYOND THAT TIME...IT SHOULD ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
WESTERLIES.
THE CENTER OF GABRIELLE IS PASSING OVER THE GULF STREAM...AND THE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR THAT WAS AFFECTING THE SYSTEM EARLIER IS
DIMINISHING. BASED ON THIS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SOME
STRENGTHENING BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST.
GABRIELLE IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY DURING EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION...AND IT SHOULD BE ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL
LOW BETWEEN 72-96 HR.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 09/0300Z 33.1N 75.7W 35 KT
12HR VT 09/1200Z 34.3N 75.9W 40 KT
24HR VT 10/0000Z 35.8N 75.6W 45 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 10/1200Z 37.1N 74.0W 45 KT...OVER WATER
48HR VT 11/0000Z 39.0N 71.0W 45 KT
72HR VT 12/0000Z 43.0N 62.5W 45 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
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