INVEST 92L: Bahamas : Gone fron NRL

[cycloneye]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc_home.html

Here is 92L for the Bahamas area.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=98423&start=0

Link to thread in Talking Tropics

[cycloneye]

KWBC 031238
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1238 UTC WED OCT 3 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922007) 20071003 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
071003 1200 071004 0000 071004 1200 071005 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 25.0N 74.1W 25.8N 74.9W 25.9N 75.9W 25.5N 77.3W
BAMD 25.0N 74.1W 25.4N 74.8W 25.2N 75.7W 24.6N 77.2W
BAMM 25.0N 74.1W 25.6N 75.1W 25.5N 76.2W 25.2N 77.6W
LBAR 25.0N 74.1W 25.8N 74.8W 26.2N 75.4W 26.1N 76.2W
SHIP 20KTS 25KTS 31KTS 40KTS
DSHP 20KTS 25KTS 31KTS 40KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
071005 1200 071006 1200 071007 1200 071008 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 25.1N 79.4W 24.5N 84.0W 24.2N 88.8W 23.9N 92.4W
BAMD 24.0N 78.9W 22.8N 82.8W 22.1N 86.5W 21.8N 89.6W
BAMM 24.9N 79.5W 24.1N 83.5W 23.6N 87.5W 23.3N 90.8W
LBAR 25.6N 77.3W 24.0N 80.5W 23.1N 84.7W 23.2N 88.6W
SHIP 49KTS 66KTS 77KTS 79KTS
DSHP 49KTS 66KTS 77KTS 79KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 25.0N LONCUR = 74.1W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 24.9N LONM12 = 73.3W DIRM12 = 284DEG SPDM12 = 4KT
LATM24 = 24.7N LONM24 = 72.3W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1012MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 165NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$

[DESTRUCTION5]

Ships says Right to Cane!

[Ed Mahmoud]

Tropics coming alive again. Cold cycle ENSO strikes again!

[ronjon]

Ships takes it to 90 kts in 5 days!

[Chacor]

Ships takes it to 90 kts in 5 days!

I don't see it in the 12Z run...

Code: Select all

TIME (HR)          0     6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72    84    96   108   120
V (KT) NO LAND    20    22    25    28    31    40    49    58    66    73    77    79    79
V (KT) LAND       20    22    25    28    31    40    49    58    66    73    77    79    79
V (KT) LGE mod    20    21    21    23    24    28    34    41    49    57    66    74    82

SHEAR (KTS)       11     4     7     6     5     7    10    12     9    10     2     9     3
SHEAR DIR        346   355   282   315     5   257   307   256   331   235   316   208   123
HEAT CONTENT      59    56    57    56    57    66    75    77   107    93    59    43    51

[ronjon]

Weatherunderground graphics:

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200792_model.html

[mightyerick]

Tropics coming alive again. Cold cycle ENSO strikes again!

I dont know. After the horrible end of Melissa I cant think in an active octuber.

[ronjon]

okay, I took the SHIPs info off the Weatherundeground track plot - they must be in error. Still hurricane strength in 5 days.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200792_model.html

[wxman57]

I didn't get the model runs in my email for 92L, only for 91L. Are they online somewhere? I don't mean the graphics, I mean the text. Just want to look at DSHP intensity.

[DESTRUCTION5]

I didn't get the model runs in my email for 92L, only for 91L. Are they online somewhere? I don't mean the graphics, I mean the text. Just want to look at DSHP intensity.

Models thread 57

[NcentralFlaguy]

At some point this system will have to interact with that cold front across the central us right now. Or maybe it will be to far south ?

[cycloneye]

DSHP 49KTS 66KTS 77KTS 79KTS

[cheezyWXguy]

At some point this system will have to interact with that cold front across the central us right now. Or maybe it will be to far south ?

For now, the forecast is that the front will not make it to the gulf coast. Right now, its not even forecast to make it passed the northern DFW area

[vacanechaser]

Weatherunderground graphics:

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200792_model.html

looks incorrect... says 90kts.... ships shows in the model text 79kts... what gives? could the model forecast points be wrong too?



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[hurricanetrack]

It's not always a front that gets these things to come north. The lack of a ridge will do that just fine. Sometimes these things just "float away" like a balloon let go...

[JPmia]

90kts in 5 days? This ought to get some attention on this board, like mine!

[cycloneye]

Anyone has past tracks that may look similar to what the models show for 92L,especially in October?

[Stormcenter]

At some point this system will have to interact with that cold front across the central us right now. Or maybe it will be to far south ?

For now, the forecast is that the front will not make it to the gulf coast. Right now, its not even forecast to make it passed the northern DFW area

I'm not so sure a cold front will be a player in what determines 92L's future track "IF" it develops. It's way too early to tell. IMO

[KatDaddy]

A 90KT tropical cyclone in the SW GOM in OCT is a scary thing. A front/trough/or weaker ridge could pull this NW, N or NE. This will be something the entire Gulf Coast would really need to watch.