Tropical Storm HAIYAN near Intl. Dateline: Discuss/Images

[Chacor]

If CPHC doesn't analyse as a TD (which they didn't in their last high seas forecast at 18z) then I think it's unlikely they'd continue bulletins.

[Chacor]

Latest CPHC high-seas forecast now says TS force winds.

...GALE WARNING...
LOW 1004MB 27N 172E MOVING N SLOWLY. WINDS 35 TO 45 KT WITHIN 60 NM.
ELSEWHERE WINDS 25 TO 30 KT WITHIN 100 NM. SEAS 8 TO 18 FT WITHIN
120 NM. SCATTERED MODERATE TSTMS WITHIN 60 NM.
.24 HR FORECAST...LOW 1004MB 28N 171E. WINDS 25 TO 35 KT WITHIN
WITHIN 100 NM. SEAS 8 TO 18 FT WITHIN 120 NM.
.48 HR FORECAST...LOW MOVED NORTH OF AREA AND DISSIPATING. WINDS
25 KT SEAS 8 TO 12 FT N OF 29N BETWEEN 170E AND 175E.

[Chacor]

WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA
AT 28.1N 172.1E MIDWAYS MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

[Chacor]

Looks like your standard tropical storm, doesn't it?

[Chacor]

6:47Z pass shows at least one 35-40 kt vector.

[Chacor]

And the JTWC has finally picked up on this, POOR:

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 28.2N 171.9E,
APPROXIMATELY 565 NM WEST OF MIDWAY. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
IMAGERY INDICATES FLARING CONVECTION AROUND A TIGHT LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE SYSTEM IS COMPLETELY SURROUNDED BY
COLD MIDLATITUDE AIR, WITH STREAMLINE ANALYSIS INDICATING COLD AIR
WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC FROM THE NORTHEAST. PHASE SPACE ANALYSIS ALSO
SUGGESTS THE DISTURBANCE IS A HYBRID SYSTEM WHICH HAS DEVELOPED OUT
OF A COLD CORE UPPER LEVEL LOW (TUTT CELL). AVAILABLE QUIKSCAT
IMAGERY INDICATES WINDS IN EXCESS OF 25 KTS NEAR THE CENTER. THE
SYSTEM WILL BE MONITORED IN THE EVENT IT BEGINS TO TAKE ON DEEP WARM
CORE CHARACTERISTICS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS POOR.

[Chacor]

JMA now believe this will become TS Haiyan in the next 24 hours.

699
WTPQ20 RJTD 051200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 051200UTC 28.1N 172.0E FAIR
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 061200UTC 29.0N 171.9E 150NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

[RL3AO]

JTWC has it poor? Some times they make me wonder.

[CrazyC83]

05/1430 UTC 28.4N 171.1E T2.5/2.5 93W

[RL3AO]

Is that what I think it is?

[JonathanBelles]

I swear this thing has been much more than a TD/invest this whole time.

[BigA]

I think this system, if any deserves the "if it was in the Gulf it would be a tropical storm" comment.

[CrazyC83]

05/2030 UTC 28.6N 171.2E T2.5/2.5 93W -- West Pacific Ocean

[MiamiensisWx]

This system probably approached typhoon status (1-min winds) earlier today per this old composite set of data. The system featured a formative eyewall yesterday, and it developed a clear eyewall earlier today. It's certainly a tropical storm in the recent images, too. The JTWC can be quite bullish for WPAC systems (intensity is initialized at high values), but I believe they refused to upgrade similar systems in previous years.

Old microwave data

[HurricaneRobert]

Is JMA missing two typhoons?

[P.K.]

RSMC Tokyo sat fix just in puts this at T2.5 so expect an upgrade in 35 min.

[Chacor]

Tropical Storm Haiyan.

724
WTJP21 RJTD 060000
WARNING 060000.
WARNING VALID 070000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 0716 HAIYAN (0716) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION
998 HPA
AT 28.5N 170.8E MIDWAYS MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 07 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 070000UTC AT 29.8N 170.1E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080000UTC AT 33.8N 172.4E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1004 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090000UTC AT 39.1N 177.2E WITH 270 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1010 HPA, MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

[CrazyC83]

Not that common to see the JMA pick it up before the JTWC does - they still have it as 92W.INVEST, rather than 18W.HAIYAN.

[Chacor]

93W. And they have no reason to call it 18W so long as they continue to claim this (and 92W) are hybrid systems. I asked Gary Padgett about this, he says "[a]ccording to Mark Lander both have had 40 kt or more winds."

[CrazyC83]

93W. And they have no reason to call it 18W so long as they continue to claim this (and 92W) are hybrid systems. I asked Gary Padgett about this, he thinks both are tropical storms with at least 40 knot winds.

Gary Padgett is at the JMA?

Regardless of what the NRL and JTWC says, since the JMA has picked it up, it is an official tropical storm...