Tropical Storm 20w (Faxai) in WPac (Extratropical)

[cycloneye]

This invest is west of the Mariana islands and well east of the Philipines.Looks pretty good.

[HURAKAN]

In the loops it seems to be consolidating.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... opical.asp

[P.K.]

WWJP25 RJTD 241800
WARNING AND SUMMARY 241800.
WARNING VALID 251800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
DEVELOPING LOW 980 HPA
AT 55N 179E BERING SEA MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 15 KNOTS.
EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 50 KNOTS WITHIN 1100 MILES OF LOW SOUTHWEST
SEMICIRCLE AND 700 MILES ELSEWHERE FOR NEXT 12 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250600UTC AT 55N 177E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 60
MILES RADIUS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 251800UTC AT 52N 179E WITH UNCERTAINTY OF 90
MILES RADIUS.
SUMMARY.
LOW 1004 HPA AT 54N 132E EAST 30 KT.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 16N 136E WNW SLOWLY.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1006 HPA NEAR 11N 114E ALMOST STATIONARY.
HIGH 1030 HPA AT 38N 146E EAST 15 KT.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

[Typhoon Hunter]

Been up at T1.5 for the last 12 hours or so now. GFS develops this and takes in NW whereas ECMWF and CMC take it west towards the Philippines. Worth watching...

TPPN10 PGTW 250310

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WEST OF GUAM

B. 25/0230Z

C. 16.6N/3

D. 136.0E/0

E. SIX/MTSAT

F. T1.5/1.5/STT: S0.0/06HRS (24/2330Z)

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI LLCC

40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. REPOSITIONED IN MULTISPEC.

DELEO

[Chacor]

WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA
AT 17.4N 134.7E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 07
KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

[Typhoon Hunter]

TCFA has now been issued by JTWC.

WTPN21 PGTW 251330
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
175 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 19.9N 133.2E TO 24.0N 130.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT IM-
AGERY AT 251200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 20.2N 133.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR 20.2N 133.0E, APPROXIMATELY
465 NM SOUTHWEST OF NAHA, OKINAWA, HAS PERSISTED OVER THE PAST 12
HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATE CONVECTION BUILD-
ING INTO AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ALTHOUGH THE
LLCC IS FULLY EXPOSED, IT IS EMBEDDED IN AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOWER
PRESSURE AND COULD POSSIBLY COUPLE WITH THE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION
TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS, REVEALS THE DISTURB-
ANCE IS UNDER GOOD DIFFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE JUST TO THE
NORTH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 22
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE 1004 MB. DUE TO
EMERGENCE OF A CLEARLY DEFINED LLCC AND CONTINUED CONVECTION ORGAN-
IZATION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
261330Z.//

[P.K.]

TS forecast within 12 hours.

FKPQ30 RJTD 251800
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20071025/1800Z
TCAC: TOKYO
TC: TD
NR: 1
PSN: N2125 E13220
MOV: NNW 20KT
C: 1000HPA
MAX WIND: 30KT
FCST PSN +12HR: 26/0600Z N2355 E13300
FCST MAX WIND +12HR: 35KT
FCST PSN +18HR: NIL
FCST MAX WIND +18HR: NIL
FCST PSN +24HR: 26/1800Z N2600 E13430
FCST MAX WIND +24HR: 35KT
NXT MSG: 20071026/0000Z =

[HURAKAN]

Looking pretty good:

[cycloneye]

SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20W (FAXAI) WARNING NR 001
REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/251321Z OCT 07//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
WTPN31 PGTW 260300
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20W (FAXAI) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
---
WARNING POSITION:
260000Z --- NEAR 23.0N 131.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
REPEAT POSIT: 23.0N 131.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 27.2N 132.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 31.1N 135.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
260300Z POSITION NEAR 24.1N 131.5E.

THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 251321Z
OCT 07 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 251330 )
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260000Z IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 260900Z, 261500Z AND 262100Z.
//

[WindRunner]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20W (FAXAI)

Looks like JMA upgraded . . .

EDIT: Yep . . . and forecast to be a STS in 24 hours and nearing TY status by 48 . . .

WTPQ20 RJTD 260000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0720 FAXAI (0720) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 260000UTC 23.0N 131.7E FAIR
MOVE NW 19KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 100NM
FORECAST
24HF 270000UTC 29.6N 135.2E 100NM 70%
MOVE NNE 21KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 280000UTC 36.3N 144.3E 170NM 70%
MOVE NE 25KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 290000UTC 40.4N 159.6E 400NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

[Typhoon Hunter]

Massive difference in the forecast on this one. For once JMA is far more bullish than JTWC!

[CrazyC83]

Considering where it is, JMA probably has the upper hand here.

[Chacor]

Ridiculously, JTWC already have Faxai as undergoing extratropical transition, while the JMA's still forecasting 60 kts.

[HURAKAN]

I have to laugh, the JTWC is already calling this extratropical.

[Chacor]

JMA have it at 45 kts at 1500.

[P.K.]

WTPQ20 RJTD 261800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0720 FAXAI (0720)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 261800UTC 26.7N 133.3E FAIR
MOVE NE 22KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 180NM EAST 100NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 271800UTC 34.6N 143.1E 150NM 70%
MOVE NE 33KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 281800UTC 41.0N 158.4E 190NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

[CrazyC83]

I have to laugh, the JTWC is already calling this extratropical.

That's just funny more than anything. This is clearly tropical, and has a shot at becoming a typhoon...

EDIT: After looking at the structure, it does look more subtropical with what looks to be a front building onto it.

[HURAKAN]

Oops, it's a tropical storm, sorry!!!!

[P.K.]

Upgraded.

WTPQ20 RJTD 270000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0720 FAXAI (0720) UPGRADED FROM TS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 270000UTC 28.6N 135.6E FAIR
MOVE NE 27KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 180NM EAST 100NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 280000UTC 36.9N 146.7E 150NM 70%
MOVE NE 33KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 290000UTC 42.3N 166.1E 190NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

[HURAKAN]

879
WTPQ20 RJTD 270900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0720 FAXAI (0720)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 270900UTC 34.4N 140.6E GOOD
MOVE NE 40KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 80NM SOUTHEAST 40NM NORTHWEST
30KT 250NM SOUTHEAST 100NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 280900UTC 42.7N 157.8E 150NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

Based on satellite images, Faxai is already extratropical.