WPAC: Invest 94W: Images & Discussion

[HURAKAN]

The 3rd system in a row.

[Chacor]

Late season surge.

[cycloneye]

Tropical disturbance summary:
(1) An area of convection has persisted near 9.3n 150.1e,
approximately 395 nm southeast of Guam. Recent multispectral and
enhanced infrared satellite imagery shows a developing low level
circulation center also evident in a 230344z AMSU-b pass. The
disturbance has developed in a region of favorable low level
vorticity near the eastern end of the western Pacific monsoon
trough. Upper level analysis reveals a tropical upper tropospher-
ic trough cell has moved to the west of the disturbance, provid-
ing a potentially favorable outflow mechanism. Additionally, an
upper level anticyclone appears to be developing over the disturb-
ance in the wake of this TUTT cell, which should keep shear low
and enhance multidirectional upper level diffluence. Maximum
sustained surface winds are estimated at 10 to 15 knots. Minimum
sea level pressure is estimated to be near 1006 mb. Because the
low level circulation center is just beginning to organize, the
potential for the development of a significant tropical cyclone
within the next 24 hours is poor.

[Chacor]

Wrong paragraph, Luis - that's for the Fiji tropical disturbance.

[cycloneye]

Wrong paragraph, Luis - that's for the Fiji tropical disturbance.

Fixed it.

[Chacor]

WTPN21 PGTW 250500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.0N 138.5E TO 18.4N 130.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 03 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 250230Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.4N 137.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 16
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 144.7E IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 137.9E, APPROXIMATELY 295 NM NORTH OF YAP.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AND A 242223Z TRMM MICROWAVE IMAGE
SHOW CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED FOR 12 HOURS ADJACENT TO A DEVELOPING
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE CIRCULATION IS SMALL WITH AN
APPROXIMATE RADIUS OF 2 TO 3 DEGREES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH STRONG OUTFLOW ALOFT
AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
260500Z.
//

NNNN

[Chacor]

REMARKS:
260900Z POSITION NEAR 16.3N 132.1E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 25W (NONAME) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 680 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NAHA, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. TD 25W HAS ATTAINED MINIMAL
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INTENSITY AS A VERY SMALL SIZED SYSTEM.
THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 260451Z
NOV 07 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 260500).
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 261500Z, 262100Z, 270300Z AND 270900Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W (HAGIBIS) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TYPHOON 24W (MITAG) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.




Doesn't look like a lot, does it?

[P.K.]

Not even a LPA in the last high seas bulletin. The only other LPA is LOW PRESSURE AREA 1004 HPA NEAR 09N 143E WNW 10 KT. This was briefly a TD yesterday before being dropped completely six hours later.

[CrazyC83]

It's now TD 25W per JTWC, even if it doesn't look like one.

[RattleMan]

Not even a LPA in the last high seas bulletin. The only other LPA is LOW PRESSURE AREA 1004 HPA NEAR 09N 143E WNW 10 KT. This was briefly a TD yesterday before being dropped completely six hours later.

Is it this? From 25/0600z:

"TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 14N 138E WNW 10 KT."

This was the only TD mentioned yesterday (the 25th) that I could see.

[CrazyC83]

Not even a LPA in the last high seas bulletin. The only other LPA is LOW PRESSURE AREA 1004 HPA NEAR 09N 143E WNW 10 KT. This was briefly a TD yesterday before being dropped completely six hours later.

Is it this? From 25/0600z:

"TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 14N 138E WNW 10 KT."

This was the only TD mentioned yesterday (the 25th) that I could see.

I think so.

[WindRunner]

Well, I'm glad the JTWC is further screwing up in the WPAC . . . this (Quikscat from 0921z this morning) looks like what, exactly? I see no circulation with this, and now that they aren't forecasting a TS any more, seems like this was a bad decision on the part of whoever decided to upgrade this . . .



Maybe the LLC very rapidly developed in the three hours between the above data and the upgrade, but for some reason I have to doubt that . . .

[P.K.]

Is it this? From 25/0600z:

"TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 14N 138E WNW 10 KT."

This was the only TD mentioned yesterday (the 25th) that I could see.

Correct. KNES only gave this area T1.0/1.0 around the time the JTWC upgraded this earlier. No sat fixes from PGTW or RJTD to this point.

26/0830 UTC 15.6N 132.5E T1.0/1.0 25W
26/1430 UTC 16.8N 130.1E T1.0/1.0 25W
26/2030 UTC 18.1N 131.0E T2.0/2.0 25W

The above LPA remains the only other LPA or greater apart from 0723 and 0724 in the basin. LOW PRESSURE AREA 1004 HPA NEAR 10N 140E NW SLOWLY.