Scientists watch unusual Yellowstone quake swarm

[lurkey]

Scientists watch unusual Yellowstone quake swarm
Dec 29 06:35 PM US/Eastern


CHEYENNE, Wyo. (AP) - Scientists are closely monitoring more than 250 small earthquakes that have occurred in Yellowstone National Park since Friday.

Swarms of small earthquakes happen frequently in Yellowstone. But Robert Smith, a professor of geophysics at the University of Utah, says it's very unusual to have so many over several days.

The largest tremor was Saturday and measured magnitude 3.8.

Smith says it's hard to say what might be causing the tremors but notes that Yellowstone is very geologically active. An active volcano there last erupted 70,000 years ago.


http://www.seis.utah.edu/req2webdir/rec ... stone.html

[HURAKAN]

The last thing that we need right now is for Yellowstone to wake up.

[gigabite]

I think that is just a swarm that has been acting up around the New Moon and running the fault lines first from north to south now east some. Tomorrow is the last day of the cycle. If it is related to the phase the frequency will fall off.

http://www.fourmilab.ch/cgi-bin/Solar?d ... C9ABFDA23C

Jupiter and Venus are putting in just about 2 percent too.

wow! 37 quakes a day is alot for anywhere. The biggest was 3.9 12/28/2008 at 05:15:56 utc.

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/eqcenter/rec ... 09_eqs.php

[lurkey]

Multiple tiny earthquakes rattle Yellowstone. Could the big one be far behind?

Any disaster fiend will tell you that Yellowstone National Park is long overdue for a monster eruption that could leave as much as half the U.S. under a blanket of ash. And there are rumblings the big one could be imminent in the wake of a series of 30-plus mini-earthquakes in the park over the past few days—too weak to be felt by humans for the most part but picked up by the seismometers at the University of Utah.

After all, the geologic record shows that the giant caldera we affectionately call Yellowstone has blown every 600,000 years or so over the past 2 million years. The last big eruption? About 640,000 years ago when the park spit out about 240 cubic miles worth of rock, dirt, magma and other stuff.

But don't panic yet. Although the earthquake swarm continues, according to the Yellowstone Volcano Observatory, the volcano alert level remains normal. And a slew of larger earthquakes have occurred throughout the western U.S., Alaska, Puerto Rico and even Pennsylvania in the past week without incident, according to the U.S. Geological Survey.

In recent years, Yellowstone's caldera has been rising thanks to uplifting magma beneath it—leading to more cracks, hot springs and even more frequent eruptions of Steamboat Geysers. Paired with the earthquakes, such magma movement might presage an eruption—either big or small. Unfortunately, scientists can't really predict when the next such eruption will happen, and the range of possibilities is large: from later today to a million years from now.

How will we know if we should start worrying? The real warning signs will be rapid changes in the shape of the ground as well as volcanic gases leaking from the ground, neither of which have been sighted—yet.

"Eruptions are far enough apart that there is a very low probability of the next eruption happening in our lifetimes or anytime soon," Daniel Dzurisin of the USGS told me in 2006. "The flipside is: [Yellowstone] has been active for millions of years and it's going to erupt again sometime."


http://volcanoes.usgs.gov/yvo/

[HURAKAN]

I really don't worry about an eruption. Why worry when you can't do anything. Nonetheless, the US government should have a plan to divert all resources to evacuate everyone in the risk area in the case of an eruption.

[lurkey]

I really don't worry about an eruption. Why worry when you can't do anything. Nonetheless, the US government should have a plan to divert all resources to evacuate everyone in the risk area in the case of an eruption.

Any eruption will quickly overrun any thing the US government can do to evacuate everyone in the immediate area--- most of the nation is in the risk area. . . they probably be better off dealing with the aftermath -- food storages, extreme temperatures, severe air quality problems, panic among the citizens. . . etc

I have got to find a copy of that movie Supervolcano or something like that. .. it was shown on Discovery Channel or something. . .


From Slashdot -- always good for a laugh

[gigabite]

56 quakes 12/31/08 thats huge small or not. Maybe some of them are being counted twice?

[lurkey]

YELLOWSTONE EARTHQUAKE UPDATE
Author: Christian Hauser (12/31/08)

Nearly 400 earthquakes have rocked Yellowstone National Park since last Friday. The quakes are putting scientists on alert, but they say this type of activity isn't unusual. As long as the quakes continue, the park will keep a very close eye on the region.

Hank Heasler, the Park's Geologist, said "Back in 1985, up to 3 months of earthquakes (occured). (They were) up to magnitudes 4.7. So the past four days have been relatively energetic for the last few years."

Scientists say predicitng earthquakes is still in it's infancy and not reliable. Park officials are not worried that this swarm of quakes could lead to a catastrophic event. However with the lack of accurate forecasting it is possible that these small tremors could be a precursor to a much bigger quake or even a volcanic eruption.

Heasler went on to say "Scientists are still working hard to be able to predict when earthquakes will occur. So what happens with the swarm, only time will tell."

These quakes are just part of the natural seismic activity cycle for Yellowstone.

Lastly, Heasler said "this earthquakes swarm is just part of business as usual in Yellowstone."

All the quakes aren't scaring away visitors though. One Bozeman resident takes it all in stride and considers it just another reason to visit the park.

Kevin Caracciolo, said "It could happen but, you never know. So (i'm) not too too worried. I think it'd be pretty cool if it did."

Old Faithful is the farthest point away from the earthquakes epicenter that anyone has felt the quakes.


Back to Montana News

[Aslkahuna]

Fifty Six earthquakes in a 24 hour period is not high for a volcanic swarm. Pinatubo had as many as 400 in 24 hours prior to its eruption. Been a change in the activity characteristics though as we saw a period of clearly harmonic tremors which are directly related to the movement of magma though they don't necessarily mean an eruption. If there were outgassing then it would be time to be concerned.

Steve

[Ed Mahmoud]

Yellowstone left six feet of ash in Northern Texas last time it blew, and the Missouri and Mississippi would run with thick mud to the Gulf. Half the country would either die outright or starve in the years without summers the following decade.


But, the good news, I suspect there would be less hurricanes.

[gigabite]

Fifty Six earthquakes in a 24 hour period is not high for a volcanic swarm. Pinatubo had as many as 400 in 24 hours prior to its eruption. Been a change in the activity characteristics though as we saw a period of clearly harmonic tremors which are directly related to the movement of magma though they don't necessarily mean an eruption. If there were outgassing then it would be time to be concerned.

Steve

I was thinking of the swarm activity that has been moving north and south along the U.S. West Coast this year. I was thinking that this could be part of that trail. There was a study of earthquake swarms in Turkey a few years back that was indicated that some swarms traveled along pathways and were indicators of another swarm further along that path way.

This one might be moving from west to east and got caught up at Yellowstone because of the potential of the volcanic region.

April 4th to the14th, 2008 there was a notable swarm off the coast of Oregon it was during the New Moon Phase also. The Moon just happened to be crossing the Earth Jupiter vector at the time.

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/20 ... 184801.htm

[Aslkahuna]

The fact that the Yellowstone Swarm went harmonic shows that it was a volcanic swarm since harmonics are clearly volcanic in origin. They indicate movement of magma though by themselves do not indicate an imminent eruption.

Steve

[gigabite]

I don’t think it is going “blow,” but I do think that the swarm will move east or south in a few months, maybe into the Caribbean.

[lurkey]

http://www.yellowstone.net/earthquakes.htm

Some of graphs of the harmonic tremors are here at this blog

Volcano Survival Guide

[Crostorm]

Magnitude 3.3 - local magnitude (Ml)
Time Friday, January 9, 2009 at 11:17:31 AM (MST)
Friday, January 9, 2009 at 18:17:31 (UTC)
Distance from Cooke City-Silver Gate, MT - 45 km (28 miles) SSW (213 degrees)
Gardiner, MT - 54 km (33 miles) SE (138 degrees)
West Yellowstone, MT - 67 km (42 miles) E (88 degrees)
Island Park, ID - 88 km (55 miles) ENE (77 degrees)
Salt Lake City, UT - 456 km (284 miles) NNE (17 degrees)
Coordinates 44 deg. 40.7 min. N (44.678N), 110 deg. 15.2 min. W (110.254W)
Depth 3.1 km (1.9 miles)
Location Quality Good
Location Quality Parameters Nst= 29, Nph= 29, Dmin=5.8 km, Rmss=0.19 sec, Erho=0.4 km, Erzz=1.2 km, Gp=61.2 degrees
Event ID# uu00002864
Additional Information map
Topo map centered at earthquake