![Image](http://metocph.nmci.navy.mil/jtwc/warnings/sh2708.gif)
WTPS31 PGTW 180300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MY/171821Z APR 08//
AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 27P WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
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WARNING POSITION:
180000Z --- NEAR 15.2S 160.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 15.2S 160.8E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 17.7S 164.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 20 KTS
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24 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 20.3S 167.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 21 KTS
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36 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 22.8S 170.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 27 KTS
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EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 26.1S 175.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
180300Z POSITION NEAR 15.8S 161.6E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 27P (NONAME), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 530 NM
NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 27P HAS RAPIDLY DEVELOPED OVER
THE LAST 12 HOURS INTO A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE ALONG THE SOUTH
PACIFIC CONVERGENCE ZONE (SPCZ). A STRONG 200 MB ANTICYCLONE
PROVIDING STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT HAS CONTRIBUTED TO THE RAPID
DEVELOPMENT. A 171907Z WINDSAT PASS SHOWS UNFLAGGED WINDS OF 35 KNOTS
NEAR THE CENTER. THE STORM IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD IN A
HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN ALONG THE SPCZ. THE GFS THE ONLY NUMERICAL
MODEL CURRENTLY RESOLVING THE STORM, AND CONFIDENCE ON THE TRACK
SPEED IS LOW GIVEN THE LACK OF OBJECTIVE AIDS. THE STORM WILL
INTENSIFY IN THE SHORT TERM, BUT WILL WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS HIGHER
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AROUND 20S. THE STORM IS FORECAST TO TRACK
ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE VICE INTERACTING WITH IT, AND THEREFORE
THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AS OPPOSED TO UNDERGOING EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A,
NAVPACMETOCCEN 171821Z APR 08 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
ALERT (WTPS21 PGTW 171830) MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180000Z
IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 181500Z AND 190300Z.
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