AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 36.9N 145.3E,
APPROXIMATELY 280 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF TOKYO, JAPAN. ANIMATED MULTI-
SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRC-
ULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FORMATIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-
CIRCLE. A 310329Z AMSU IMAGE ALSO INDICATES CONVECTIVE BANDING EAST
WRAPPING INTO THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT. A 302358Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWED
A DEFINED LLCC WITH 15-20 KNOT WINDS. THIS AREA IS SITUATED EAST OF
AN UPPER-LEVEL, MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH UNDER MODERATE TO
STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. IT IS ALSO LOCATED OVER MARGINAL SST
AND IS LOCATED SOUTH OF AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ALONG 40N. THE LLCC IS TRACKING NORTHWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE LOW-LEVEL STEERING RIDGE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. BASED ON THE CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE
AND GOOD OUTFLOW, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS FAIR.
