ATL: Tropical Storm Kyle : Models

[Ed Mahmoud]

European New England monster!

[RL3AO]

How similar is the set up to past storms that hit the northeast?

[jlauderdal]

How is the Canadian performing for this Canada bound system?

[Ed Mahmoud]

How is the Canadian performing for this Canada bound system?

Tad closer to Cape Cod than NHC, but still missing on its way to Canada.

[Ed Mahmoud]

18Z GFDL seems in same ballpark, close, but no downed trees and loss of power in Hyannisport.

Code: Select all

WHXX04 KWBC 252329 

CHGQLM 

ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER 

 

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR 

 

TROPICAL STORM KYLE      11L 

 

INITIAL TIME  18Z SEP 25 

 

DISCLAIMER ...  THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE.  IT 

REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD 

NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.  PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC 

OFFICIAL FORECAST. 

 

 

FORECAST STORM POSITION 

 

HOUR        LATITUDE        LONGITUDE        HEADING/SPEED(KT) 

 

   0            23.0             68.6            10./ 6.0 

   6            23.4             68.3            40./ 5.1 

  12            24.4             68.2             3./10.0 

  18            25.5             68.2             0./11.7 

  24            27.0             68.5           348./14.9 

  30            28.2             69.1           336./13.3 

  36            29.6             69.4           348./13.5 

  42            31.2             69.8           346./16.8 

  48            33.0             69.7             2./17.9 

  54            35.2             69.3            11./22.1 

  60            37.5             68.7            15./23.2 

  66            39.8             68.2            12./24.3 

  72            42.2             67.6            13./24.3 

  78            44.4             66.9            19./21.9 

  84            46.3             66.1            21./20.3 

  90            47.8             64.9            41./16.6 

  96            49.1             63.5            46./16.1 

 102            49.9             62.4            55./10.4 

 108            50.0             62.0            69./ 2.9 

 114            50.1             61.5            76./ 3.4 

 120            50.1             61.2            92./ 2.1 

 126            50.0             60.8           104./ 2.7


[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 260029
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0029 UTC FRI SEP 26 2008

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE KYLE (AL112008) 20080926 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
080926 0000 080926 1200 080927 0000 080927 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 24.2N 68.0W 26.4N 69.1W 28.7N 69.6W 31.2N 69.8W
BAMD 24.2N 68.0W 26.3N 68.1W 28.7N 68.3W 31.4N 68.0W
BAMM 24.2N 68.0W 26.1N 68.7W 28.3N 69.1W 30.8N 69.0W
LBAR 24.2N 68.0W 26.2N 68.0W 28.3N 68.5W 30.3N 69.3W
SHIP 45KTS 54KTS 64KTS 71KTS
DSHP 45KTS 54KTS 64KTS 71KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
080928 0000 080929 0000 080930 0000 081001 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 34.0N 68.6W 38.6N 63.0W 40.8N 59.3W 41.9N 56.9W
BAMD 34.4N 66.2W 37.0N 59.3W 30.5N 54.5W 24.8N 47.9W
BAMM 33.6N 67.6W 38.1N 61.2W 38.7N 57.1W 37.3N 52.2W
LBAR 32.5N 69.9W 38.0N 68.4W 43.6N 62.0W 48.0N 57.4W
SHIP 77KTS 83KTS 70KTS 52KTS
DSHP 77KTS 78KTS 53KTS 32KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 24.2N LONCUR = 68.0W DIRCUR = 20DEG SPDCUR = 10KT
LATM12 = 22.4N LONM12 = 68.7W DIRM12 = 19DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 21.2N LONM24 = 69.2W
WNDCUR = 45KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 30KT
CENPRS = 994MB OUTPRS = 1009MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 90NM RD34SE = 75NM RD34SW = 15NM RD34NW = 15NM

[btangy]

00Z run of the GFS is coming in and there has been a significant shift in the GFS much further W more in line with the UKMET, ECMWF, and CMC models. The main differences I see between the 00Z GFS and 12Z GFS is that it maintains more deep layer ridging to the NE of Kyle and also weaker with shortwave traversing N of the Great Lakes in the 48-60 hour time frame which keeps the cutoff low associated with the storm over the Carolinas around just a tad longer. The result is that the storm is steered more toward the NNW instead of N and NE as the NHC currently has progged.

It appears that Cape Cod and Maine cannot breath a sigh of relief yet as Sunday may be a very nasty day with additional significant rain and wind, but probably not any worse than a bad winter storm around those parts.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Canadian mesoscale model just East of border, similar to 12Z GFS

[Thunder44]

Code: Select all

050   

WHXX01 KWBC 271838 

CHGHUR 

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE 

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 

1838 UTC SAT SEP 27 2008 

   

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS. 

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION. 

   

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR 

   

TROPICAL CYCLONE KYLE (AL112008) 20080927 1800 UTC 

   

        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS... 

        080927  1800   080928  0600   080928  1800   080929  0600 

   

         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON 

BAMS    33.3N  69.7W   35.9N  69.9W   38.3N  68.6W   40.6N  65.7W 

BAMD    33.3N  69.7W   36.8N  69.0W   40.7N  67.8W   44.5N  66.1W 

BAMM    33.3N  69.7W   36.3N  69.7W   39.6N  68.4W   42.7N  65.8W 

LBAR    33.3N  69.7W   36.4N  69.3W   39.6N  68.3W   42.5N  67.0W 

SHIP        60KTS          61KTS          63KTS          63KTS 

DSHP        60KTS          61KTS          63KTS          54KTS 

   

        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS... 

        080929  1800   080930  1800   081001  1800   081002  1800 

   

         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON 

BAMS    42.6N  62.8W   46.3N  59.9W   50.5N  57.6W   54.0N  55.2W 

BAMD    47.9N  64.4W   52.9N  63.3W   58.2N  62.7W   61.9N  64.2W 

BAMM    45.5N  63.6W   50.1N  62.1W   55.4N  61.8W   59.2N  64.6W 

LBAR    45.3N  64.6W   51.4N  56.2W   55.0N  47.3W   56.0N  45.7W 

SHIP        60KTS          57KTS          63KTS          61KTS 

DSHP        34KTS          30KTS          30KTS          31KTS 

   

         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS... 

LATCUR =  33.3N LONCUR =  69.7W DIRCUR = 355DEG SPDCUR =  17KT 

LATM12 =  29.9N LONM12 =  69.3W DIRM12 = 343DEG SPDM12 =  13KT 

LATM24 =  26.9N LONM24 =  68.6W 

WNDCUR =   60KT RMAXWD =   90NM WNDM12 =   60KT 

CENPRS =  998MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD =  150NM SDEPTH =   D 

RD34NE =  180NM RD34SE =  140NM RD34SW =    0NM RD34NW = 110NM 

   

$$ 

NNNN 

18z models still have this as a 60kt TS.