NW Australia: Tropical Cyclone Nicholas (19S)

[HURAKAN]

[Coredesat]

I'd opt for using CIMSS and SAB's floater instead of NRL's images for now; NRL for some reason is opting to use METEOSAT-7 even though Nicholas is only barely in its range.

[Squarethecircle]

Their most recent M-7 image is a day old anyhow.

[G.B.]

I think there's something wrong with their updates. Got a current Image, but next time I look it goes back to 02/13

[Squarethecircle]

Most recent microwave imagery:

[Coredesat]

AXAU02 APRF 150034
IDW27700
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0034 UTC 15/02/2008
Name: Nicholas
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 15.9S
Longitude: 119.7E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: west [270 deg]
Speed of Movement: 3 knots [5 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 70 knots [130 km/h]
Central Pressure: 974 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm [37 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.5/3.5/D0.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 998 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 90 nm [165 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 15/1200: 16.3S 119.0E: 030 [055]: 055 [100]: 966
+24: 16/0000: 16.9S 118.6E: 055 [105]: 065 [120]: 960
+36: 16/1200: 17.8S 118.6E: 090 [165]: 075 [140]: 954
+48: 17/0000: 18.8S 118.2E: 100 [185]: 085 [155]: 944
+60: 17/1200: 19.9S 117.6E: 140 [260]: 090 [165]: 934
+72: 18/0000: 21.3S 116.9E: 195 [360]: 080 [150]: 950
REMARKS:
The system underwent some intensification overnight and a shear analysis gives
DT3.5. FT is based on DT. Dvorak analysis is supported by trend in microwave
imagery which shows increase in curvature and greater the last 6-12 hours with
evidence of curvature of deep convection and greater invlolvement with the LLCC.

Intensification may continue to be hampered by moderate shear in the short term
but there is some prospect for lower shear later on Saturday though the model
guidance is mixed.

Southwesterly motion is forecast in the medium term in accordance with the
consensus of NWP guidance.


==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 15/0700 UTC by Perth TCWC.

[Crostorm]

IDW24200
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

[Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
[
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 28
Issued at 10:00 am WDT on Friday, 15 February 2008
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Wallal to Whim Creek.
A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Whim Creek to Onslow and
adjacent inland parts of both the Watch and Warning zones. The Cyclone Warning
for coastal areas from Cape Leveque to Bidyadanga and the Cyclone Watch from
Bidyadanga to Wallal is cancelled.

At 9:00 am WDT Tropical Cyclone Nicholas, was estimated to be
355 kilometres northwest of Broome and
505 kilometres north northeast of Port Hedland and
moving west at 5 kilometres per hour.

Nicholas has intensified to Category 2 overnight and further intensification is
likely. Nicholas is currently moving in a westerly direction but is expected to
adopt a more southerly track towards the Pilbara coast over the next couple of
days.

It is possible gales may affect coastal communities between Wallal and Whim
Creek late on Saturday and extend to adjacent inland parts on Sunday. Gales are
expected to develop in coastal areas between Whim Creek and Onslow on Sunday.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Nicholas at 9:00 am WDT:
Centre located near...... 15.9 degrees South 119.7 degrees East
Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
Recent movement.......... towards the west at 5 kilometres per hour
Wind gusts near centre... 130 kilometres per hour
Severity category........ 2
Central pressure......... 974 hectoPascals

FESA-State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at
present. People in Pilbara communities should listen for the next advice.

The next advice will be issued by 1:00 pm WDT Friday 15 February.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210

[Crostorm]

[HURAKAN]

HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE
AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
CENTRE PERTH AT 0059UTC 15 FEBRUARY 2008

HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 0000 UTC Tropical Cyclone Nicholas was centred within 30 nautical miles of
latitude fifteen decimal nine south [15.9S]
longitude one hundred and nineteen decimal seven east [119.7E]
Recent movement : west at 3 knots
Maximum winds : 50 knots
Central pressure: 974 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 60 nautical miles of the centre in eastern quadrants, and within 90
nautical miles in western quadrants until 1800 UTC 15 February. After 1800 UTC
15 February within 90 nautical miles in all quadrants.

FORECAST
Clockwise winds above 34 knots with rough to very rough seas and moderate swell.
Maximum winds to 50 knots near the centre increasing to 65 knots by 0000 UTC 16
February.
Winds above 48 knots within 30 nautical miles of centre with very rough to high
seas and moderate to heavy swell.

Forecast positions
At 1200 UTC 15 February: Within 30 nautical miles of 16.3 south 119.0 east
Central pressure 966 hPa.
Winds to 55 knots near centre.
At 0000 UTC 16 February: Within 55 nautical miles of 16.9 south 118.6 east
Central pressure 960 hPa.
Winds to 65 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use either email to tcwcwa@bom.gov.au or fax to +61892632261
or satellite to SAC 1241 through Land Earth Station Perth 312.

Next warning will be issued by 0700 UTC 15 February 2008.

WEATHER PERTH

[HURAKAN]

Latest!

[Crostorm]

IDW24200
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 29
Issued at 12:50 pm WDT on Friday, 15 February 2008
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Wallal to Whim Creek. A
Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Whim Creek to Onslow and
adjacent inland parts of both the Watch and Warning zones.

At midday WDT Tropical Cyclone Nicholas, was estimated to be
620 kilometres north northeast of Karratha and
515 kilometres north northeast of Port Hedland and
moving west at 5 kilometres per hour.

Nicholas intensified to Category 2 overnight and further intensification is
likely as it moves towards the Pilbara coast over the next couple of days.

It is possible gales may affect coastal communities between Wallal and Whim
Creek late on Saturday and extend to adjacent inland parts on Sunday. Gales are
expected to develop in coastal areas between Whim Creek and Onslow on Sunday or
Monday.

Details of Tropical Cyclone Nicholas at midday WDT:
Centre located near...... 15.8 degrees South 119.6 degrees East
Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
Recent movement.......... towards the west at 5 kilometres per hour
Wind gusts near centre... 130 kilometres per hour
Severity category........ 2
Central pressure......... 974 hectoPascals

FESA-State Emergency Service advises that there are no community alerts at
present. People in Pilbara communities should listen for the next advice.

The next advice will be issued by 4:00 pm WDT Friday 15 February.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210


A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone

[Crostorm]

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 31
Issued at 6:45 pm WDT on Friday, 15 February 2008
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Wallal to Whim Creek.
A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Whim Creek to Exmouth and
adjacent inland parts of both the Watch and Warning zones.

At 6:00 pm WDT Tropical Cyclone Nicholas was estimated to be
480 kilometres north northeast of Port Hedland and
590 kilometres north northeast of Karratha and
moving southwest at 5 kilometres per hour.

Nicholas has begun to move towards the southwest and is expected to take a south
to southwest track towards the Pilbara coast over the weekend. Nicholas is
expected to further intensify during the weekend and there is a risk of a severe
tropical cyclone crossing the Pilbara coast on Sunday or Monday.

It is possible that gales will affect coastal communities between Wallal and
Whim Creek late on Saturday and extend to adjacent inland parts on Sunday. Gales
may develop in coastal areas between Whim Creek and Exmouth on Sunday or Monday.


Details of Tropical Cyclone Nicholas at 6:00 pm WDT:
Centre located near...... 16.1 degrees South 119.5 degrees East
Location accuracy........ within 46 kilometres
Recent movement.......... towards the southwest at 5 kilometres per hour
Wind gusts near centre... 130 kilometres per hour
Severity category........ 2
Central pressure......... 974 hectoPascals

FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:
BLUE ALERT: People in or near coastal Pilbara communities between Wallal and
Mardie, including Wallal, Pardoo, Port Hedland, Wickham, Point Samson,
Roebourne, Karratha, Dampier and Mardie.
People in coastal and adjacent inland Pilbara communities should listen for the
next advice.

The next advice will be issued by 10:00 pm WDT Friday 15 February.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210

[HURAKAN]

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 32
Issued at 9:50 pm WDT on Friday, 15 February 2008
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Wallal to Whim Creek.
A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Whim Creek to Exmouth and
adjacent inland parts of both the Watch and Warning zones.

At 9:00 pm WDT Tropical Cyclone Nicholas was estimated to be
465 kilometres north of Port Hedland and
570 kilometres north northeast of Karratha and
moving southwest at 5 kilometres per hour.

Nicholas has begun to move towards the southwest and is expected to take a south
to southwest track towards the Pilbara coast over the weekend. Nicholas is
expected to further intensify during the weekend and there is a risk of a severe
tropical cyclone crossing the Pilbara coast on Sunday or Monday.

It is possible that gales will affect coastal communities between Wallal and
Whim Creek late on Saturday and extend to adjacent inland parts on Sunday. Gales
may develop in coastal areas between Whim Creek and Exmouth on Sunday or Monday.


Details of Tropical Cyclone Nicholas at 9:00 pm WDT:
Centre located near...... 16.2 degrees South 119.3 degrees East
Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
Recent movement.......... towards the southwest at 5 kilometres per hour
Wind gusts near centre... 130 kilometres per hour
Severity category........ 2
Central pressure......... 974 hectoPascals

FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:
BLUE ALERT: People in or near coastal Pilbara communities between Wallal and
Mardie, including Wallal, Pardoo, Port Hedland, Wickham, Point Samson,
Roebourne, Karratha, Dampier and Mardie.

People in coastal and adjacent inland Pilbara communities should listen for the
next advice.

The next advice will be issued by 1:00 am WDT Saturday 16 February.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone

[Chacor]

Headed for the same area George and Jacob hit last year...

[Squarethecircle]

Looking very bad though. I wouldn't put this any higher than 50 knots. The microwave imagery is looking better, so I wouldn't be surprised if it managed to get its act together, but it's nothing particularly dangerous to that area right now (and hopefully it won't intensify too much).

EDIT: Lol, I said 5 knot instead of fifty knots...

[G.B.]

IDW27400
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL SUMMARY: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1258 UTC 15/02/2008
Name: Nicholas
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 16.2S
Longitude: 119.3E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm (55 km)
Movement Towards: southwest (224 deg)
Speed of Movement:3 knots (5 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 50 knots (95 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 70 knots (130 km/h)
Central Pressure: 974 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 70 nm (130 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 70 nm (130 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 100 nm (185 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 100 nm (185 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 30 nm (55 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 30 nm (55 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 30 nm (55 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 30 nm (55 km)
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm (37 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.5/3.5/D0.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 998 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm (220 km)
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
(UTC) : degrees : nm (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+12: 16/0000: 16.7S 118.8E: 050 (095): 060 (110): 964
+24: 16/1200: 17.7S 118.5E: 075 (140): 070 (130): 956
+36: 17/0000: 18.6S 118.2E: 095 (175): 085 (155): 942
+48: 17/1200: 19.7S 117.7E: 115 (215): 095 (175): 926
REMARKS:
Although continuing to be influenced by moderate vertical shear Nicholas is showing increasing
curvature in the deep convection in both VIS and microwave imagery and good high level outflow is evident.
The system is expected to continue intensification along the standard Dvorak rate and reach a T 4.5 in 24 hours.

Recent westerly steering by the mid level ridge is forecast to decrease and the system has begun to move on a more south westerly track over the last 3 to 6 hours.
This motion is expected to continue in the long term in accordance with the consensus of model guidance.



Notes:
This product is issued every six hours; the Cyclone Advices (Watches and Warnings) are
usually issued more frequently and contain more useful information for coastal communities.

Time Conversion from UTC to local:
WST add 8 hrs (Add another hour for daylight saving)
CST add 9 hrs 30 min
EST add 10 hrs (Add another hour for daylight saving)
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 15/1900 UTC by Perth TCWC.

[HURAKAN]

[Chacor]

JTWC now has it at 70 kt, expected to hit 95kt 1-min before landfall.

[HURAKAN]

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this
warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 33
Issued at 12:30 am WDT on Saturday, 16 February 2008
BY THE BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Wallal to Whim Creek.
A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Whim Creek to Exmouth and
adjacent inland parts of both the Watch and Warning zones.

At 12:00 am WDT Tropical Cyclone Nicholas was estimated to be
450 kilometres north of Port Hedland and
535 kilometres north northeast of Karratha and
moving west southwest at 7 kilometres per hour.

Nicholas has begun to move towards the west southwest and is expected to take a
south to southwest track towards the Pilbara coast over the weekend. Nicholas is
expected to further intensify during the weekend and there is a risk of a severe
tropical cyclone crossing the Pilbara coast on Sunday or Monday.

It is possible that gales will affect coastal communities between Wallal and
Whim Creek late on Saturday and extend to adjacent inland parts on Sunday. Gales
may develop in coastal areas between Whim Creek and Exmouth on Sunday or Monday.


Details of Tropical Cyclone Nicholas at 12:00 am WDT:
Centre located near...... 16.3 degrees South 118.8 degrees East
Location accuracy........ within 55 kilometres
Recent movement.......... towards the west southwest at 7 kilometres per hour
Wind gusts near centre... 130 kilometres per hour
Severity category........ 2
Central pressure......... 974 hectoPascals

FESA-State Emergency Service advises of the following community alerts:
BLUE ALERT: People in or near coastal Pilbara communities between Wallal and
Mardie, including Wallal, Pardoo, Port Hedland, Wickham, Point Samson,
Roebourne, Karratha, Dampier and Mardie.

People in coastal and adjacent inland Pilbara communities should listen for the
next advice.

The next advice will be issued by 4:00 am WDT Saturday 16 February.
Cyclone advices and State Emergency Service Community Alerts are available by
dialling 1300 659 210


A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at:
http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/cyclone