NWPAC: 台风“浣熊” STS Neoguri (0801/02W)

Cyclenall · #102 Postby **Cyclenall** » Tue Apr 15, 2008 6:02 pm

It's no longer average size, now considered "large" (705 km (380 nm)).

#103 Postby **HURAKAN** » Tue Apr 15, 2008 6:27 pm

Chacor · #104 Postby **Chacor** » Tue Apr 15, 2008 7:06 pm

Unfortunately twister at ohio state is down so I don't have the latest JMA fix.

RattleMan · #105 Postby **RattleMan** » Tue Apr 15, 2008 7:15 pm

Chacor wrote:Unfortunately twister at ohio state is down so I don't have the latest JMA fix.

http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/data/raw/wt ... .rjtd..txt

WTPQ20 RJTD 152100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 0801 NEOGURI (0801)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 152100UTC 12.9N 113.9E GOOD
MOVE NNW 12KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 200NM NORTH 180NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 162100UTC 15.6N 111.9E 80NM 70%
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 171800UTC 16.8N 111.0E 150NM 70%
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
69HF 181800UTC 18.5N 110.0E 220NM 70%
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =

#106 Postby **senorpepr** » Tue Apr 15, 2008 7:15 pm

Another good one is http://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/tc/wnp/

Chacor · #107 Postby **Chacor** » Tue Apr 15, 2008 7:27 pm

I said JMA fix. As in satellite bulletin — TCNA21 RJTD.

That will give an idea of the intensity they intend to go with at their next warning.

#108 Postby **senorpepr** » Tue Apr 15, 2008 7:34 pm

In that case:

TCNA21 RJTD 160000
CCAA 16000 47644 NEOGURI(0801) 03131 11130 13394 235// 92811=

13.1N 113.0E T3.5 moving 280° @ 11KT

#109 Postby **RL3AO** » Tue Apr 15, 2008 7:48 pm

Thats not a 45kt storm.

#110 Postby **HURAKAN** » Tue Apr 15, 2008 7:50 pm

Beautiful storm!

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #111 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Tue Apr 15, 2008 8:03 pm

Eyewall appears to be forming, so around 60 knots is my guest.

#112 Postby **senorpepr** » Tue Apr 15, 2008 8:10 pm

It'll be interesting to see what the different agencies say at 03Z

#113 Postby **HURAKAN** » Tue Apr 15, 2008 8:13 pm

Great outflow.

Derek Ortt · #114 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Tue Apr 15, 2008 8:29 pm

I saw 55KT, but intensifying quickly

Have to say, I am excited that this formed, as my new tracking algorithm suggested that TC formation could occur last week east of the Philippenes... and it did

#115 Postby **Typhoon Hunter** » Tue Apr 15, 2008 8:31 pm

The storm is really looking beautiful. JMA have now upgraded Neoguri to severe tropical storm strength with sustained winds of 50kts. Hainan Island looks like the bull's eye at the moment.

WTPQ20 RJTD 160000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 0801 NEOGURI (0801) UPGRADED FROM TS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 160000UTC 13.1N 113.0E GOOD
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 200NM

FORECAST
24HF 170000UTC 15.8N 111.6E 90NM 70%
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 180000UTC 16.8N 111.1E 150NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 190000UTC 18.9N 110.6E 220NM 70%
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =

#116 Postby **Typhoon Hunter** » Tue Apr 15, 2008 8:44 pm

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/sohemi/SHGMSCOLW.JPG

Ummm is that what I think it is poking through in the middle in the image above?

#117 Postby **HURAKAN** » Tue Apr 15, 2008 8:56 pm

WE HAVE AN EYE!!!

#118 Postby **HURAKAN** » Tue Apr 15, 2008 9:00 pm

TPPN10 PGTW 160008

A. TROPICAL STORM 02W (NEOGURI)

B. 15/2330Z

C. 13.0N

D. 113.1E

E. THREE/MTSAT

F. T4.0/4.0/D1.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/06HRS (15/2330Z)

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

15A/PBO TCB/ANMTN. CONVECTION WRAP OF 1.25 ON LOG10
YIELDS A DT OF 4.0. MET AGREES. PT AN UNREP 4.5. DBO
DT.

AMES

Cyclenall · #119 Postby **Cyclenall** » Tue Apr 15, 2008 9:14 pm

It's starting to look like a monster. The eye came out pretty fast on this one. It looks huge though.

I think it's now at 75-80 knots. Soon it could be over 110 knots.

#120 Postby **RL3AO** » Tue Apr 15, 2008 9:52 pm

02WNEOGURI.60kts-978mb-133N-1131E

NWPAC: 台风“浣熊” STS Neoguri (0801/02W)

Re: NWPAC: 热带风暴“浣熊” TS Neoguri (0801/02W)

Re:

Re: NWPAC: 热带风暴“浣熊” TS Neoguri (0801/02W)

Re: NWPAC: 热带风暴“浣熊” TS Neoguri (0801/02W)

Re: NWPAC: 热带风暴“浣熊” TS Neoguri (0801/02W)

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