ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[jinftl]

hebert box is mainly a south florida benchmark...and i do realize the pandora's box that is opened when the words 'south florida' hit this board....no other geographic area gets such love/hate dialogue here! No implications here at all about 94L....just info on the Hebert Box.

http://purecajunsunshine.blogspot.com/2007/08/hebert-hurricane-box.html

Help me out with the Hebert Box... I know that 20n, 60W is usually a benchmark for storms reaching Conus (those below this point have a better chance to affect Conus), but i dont know the dimensions of the "box". How big is this box, and what are it's N,S,E,W boudries?

[Stratosphere747]

That link also proves the 'Hebert Box' is a myth...

[jinftl]

That's one interpretation i guess if you go with the idea that storms in the boxes can hit other places as well, but not sure if the boxes are debunked when the article states, "Nearly every major Hurricane that hit S Florida since 1900 passed through these boxes. When major Hurricanes miss these boxes,they virtually always miss South Florida."

That link also proves the 'Hebert Box' is a myth...

[wxman57]

You guys know me, I'm not one to jump on development potential whenever I see a cumulus cloud in the tropics. But I do think that this system has a good chance of becoming Cristobal this week. It's more than 24 hours away from a depression, probably 48 hours or more, but it's slowly organizing. As I look at the environment in its path I see considerable weakness in the ridge to its north as it nears the Caribbean. This should allow it to gain significant latitude over the coming days. I'd discard the current BAM runs taking into South America. They don't look realistic at all.

I think that the northeast Caribbean islands would be at greatest risk by Friday. Thereafter, we'll have to see just how weak the ridge to the north is and how strong Cristobal becomes (I've already created a Cristobal folder for my 2009 hurricane talks and I'm saving all images of this system there) by the time it reaches 60W. With Bertha still hanging around near Bermuda in 4-5 days, this might allow 94L to track more WNW-NW after reaching the NE Caribbean. Question is, does high pressure build in to its north, blocking it and shoving it west or does it take a path similar to Bertha but more west? My initial thought is the latter. Similar path to Bertha but more west before the turn north. I certainly wouldn't rule out an east coast threat at this point, but with the Bermuda high now so weak west of 60W I'm thinking a Gulf threat is not very likely.

[Category 5]

[
At this point in 2005, we had 5 storms, 3 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes.

Yeah. We're at 2/1/1 now and if this develops I'd consider this to be a very fast start, and we'd be ON PACE (nothings for sure) for a very active season.

2005 shouldn't be mentioned in climatology or comparisons . It's just in a class of its own.

And already not in mid July yet,the ACE for the young 2008 season is at 19.7.

Yes but lets face it, almost all of that is Bertha.

[Aric Dunn]

You guys know me, I'm not one to jump on development potential whenever I see a cumulus cloud in the tropics. But I do think that this system has a good chance of becoming Cristobal this week. It's more than 24 hours away from a depression, probably 48 hours or more, but it's slowly organizing. As I look at the environment in its path I see considerable weakness in the ridge to its north as it nears the Caribbean. This should allow it to gain significant latitude over the coming days. I'd discard the current BAM runs taking into South America. They don't look realistic at all.

I think that the northeast Caribbean islands would be at greatest risk by Friday. Thereafter, we'll have to see just how weak the ridge to the north is and how strong Cristobal becomes (I've already created a Cristobal folder for my 2009 hurricane talks and I'm saving all images of this system there) by the time it reaches 60W. With Bertha still hanging around near Bermuda in 4-5 days, this might allow 94L to track more WNW-NW after reaching the NE Caribbean. Question is, does high pressure build in to its north, blocking it and shoving it west or does it take a path similar to Bertha but more west? My initial thought is the latter. Similar path to Bertha but more west before the turn north. I certainly wouldn't rule out an east coast threat at this point, but with the Bermuda high now so weak west of 60W I'm thinking a Gulf threat is not very likely.

agreed, very reasonable assessment.

[HURAKAN]

Always a pleasure reading the opinion of a pro. Thanks wxman57.

[cycloneye]

You guys know me, I'm not one to jump on development potential whenever I see a cumulus cloud in the tropics. But I do think that this system has a good chance of becoming Cristobal this week. It's more than 24 hours away from a depression, probably 48 hours or more, but it's slowly organizing. As I look at the environment in its path I see considerable weakness in the ridge to its north as it nears the Caribbean. This should allow it to gain significant latitude over the coming days. I'd discard the current BAM runs taking into South America. They don't look realistic at all.

I think that the northeast Caribbean islands would be at greatest risk by Friday. Thereafter, we'll have to see just how weak the ridge to the north is and how strong Cristobal becomes (I've already created a Cristobal folder for my 2009 hurricane talks and I'm saving all images of this system there) by the time it reaches 60W. With Bertha still hanging around near Bermuda in 4-5 days, this might allow 94L to track more WNW-NW after reaching the NE Caribbean. Question is, does high pressure build in to its north, blocking it and shoving it west or does it take a path similar to Bertha but more west? My initial thought is the latter. Similar path to Bertha but more west before the turn north. I certainly wouldn't rule out an east coast threat at this point, but with the Bermuda high now so weak west of 60W I'm thinking a Gulf threat is not very likely.

Very reasonable analysis as usual you do.

[RL3AO]

Wxman. If this did make it into the Central Caribbean, would the wall of shear still be there, or would it weaken ahead of the storm?

[MiamiensisWx]

The following post is NOT an official prognosis.

There is a broad surface trough in the vicinity with minimal shear at the mid to upper levels. The westerly wind vectors from the low levels to upper levels denote the existance of the surface trough. No LLC is present or evident, but increasing UVV (Upward Vertical Vorticity) and 850 mb low level vorticity will likely contribute to the gradual development of a closed low level circulation within the next 24-36 hours. A mid level circulation is present. Divergence (providing ascent for additional convection) and diffluence (broadening of surrounding wind fields) is excellent, and capping/SAL is negligible in the vicinity. The presence of the adjacent tropical wave axis is contributing to good low level convergence as well. SSTs and OHC (ocanic heat content) are sufficient for additional development, though the best OHC is further west closer to the eastern Caribbean islands and Lesser Antilles. Overall, I anticipate slow initial development, and a TD will likely be classified within the next 2-4 days. I do not expect classification today or tomorrow, which is the short term. I believe development of 94L is very likely.

With the very favorable environment in regards to synoptics and thermodynamics, the islands should closely monitor 94L. A strong low level ridge will likely result in a southerly track toward the SE Caribbean/Windward Islands if the system develops. Since the environment will be favorable for gradual development and deepening of the surface low, I suspect that 94L could become a tropical storm prior to reaching the islands, with the most significant intensification occurring closer to the Windwards (as opposed to further east near its current location). The islands and Caribbean should closely monitor 94L over the course of this week.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

[wxman57]

That link also proves the 'Hebert Box' is a myth...

How can climatology be a myth? Paul Hebert simply points out that most hurricanes which have hit south Florida have passed though this region. That's all there is to it. Of course, the reverse isn't true - you can't say that most hurricanes which move through Hebert's box HIT south Florida. That's certainly inaccurate. All Paul is trying to say is that if a storm moves through this region then those in south Florida should play close attention.

[Sanibel]

The swirl has the look but the convection is a little weak and scattered. We'll see if the Caribbean is favorable enough to allow formation. The system itself will make the determination. As with every system look for nocturnal flaring to see if it's got something.

Will Bertha affect it?

[wxman57]

Wxman. If this did make it into the Central Caribbean, would the wall of shear still be there, or would it weaken ahead of the storm?

I don't see a problem with upper-level shear, but the GFS is forecasting 35-40 kt easterly winds at 850mb through the central Caribbean in 94L's path.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_120m.gif

If those low-level winds don't subside, then it's not a very favorable environment.

[Stratosphere747]

That link also proves the 'Hebert Box' is a myth...

How can climatology be a myth? Paul Hebert simply points out that most hurricanes which have hit south Florida have passed though this region. That's all there is to it. Of course, the reverse isn't true - you can't say that most hurricanes which move through Hebert's box HIT south Florida. That's certainly inaccurate. All Paul is trying to say is that if a storm moves through this region then those in south Florida should play close attention.

It can be subjective and never used in the context that you bring up. Many times people say "Hebert Box" with the implication that it's a Florida threat without using the basis that Paul intended.

If one wanted to, every region could have their own 'Hebert Box.'

Needs its own thread in the off-season. Back to 94L....

[Aric Dunn]

one interesting thing to note in the medium to long range forecast across the east coast.. some are calling for a heat ridge to develop mid next week.. so as betha exits and possible cristobal heading wnw depending on how strong the ridge is behind bertha will be a big player ..cause if 94l does not move through the weakness and makes it far enough west the "heat ridge" over the east coast and extending into the western atlantic will likely make 94l player down the road..

last heat ridge that i can remember that was a problem ... was the one that developed when Jeanne did her loop

[Aric Dunn]

as you can see here the gfs builds a pretty strong ridge over the eastern us and western atlantic..

[NDG]

Definitely the Leeward Islands have to watch out for this system, I agree with Wxman57 that there should be a weakness north of the Islands 5 days from now that should make this system gain some latitude. Too early yet where will it go after the northern Islands, but with the Euro indicating a ridge off of FL or SE US by day 7, it should bend it back to the W or WNW after passing the Leeward Islands. Right now I give it higher threat for the US east coast than the Gulfcoast.

[fci]

That link also proves the 'Hebert Box' is a myth...

Truly your post willl go down as one of the more ridiculous ones I have seen.

How do you leap to a conclusion that it is a myth?
What is The Myth???

That a recorded number of storms that have hit Florida have gone through a geographical area?

NO WHERE does the theory say that all storms that pass through the "zone" will strike Florida.
It just points out the statistics.
Which are undeniable.

Were you just fishing for a fight with your post??

[MiamiensisWx]

I think the track depicted by the operational GFS is too far north, and the operational model is displaying its notorious northward bias again. A surface ridge axis is currently situated over 94L and south of the upper level weakness induced by Bertha. Since this system will develop slowly during the vast majority of the short term, a more southerly track is probable. As Bertha begins to move out of the picture as it feels the influence of the H5 cutoff low to its east, 94L will be near the Windward Islands. As mentioned by NDG, a strong mid to upper level ridge is progged to develop over the eastern CONUS and Caribbean Sea. Even if 94L is likely stronger (TS) at that time, the ridging will negate any potential NW movement. It seems more likely that a path through the E Caribbean or interaction with Hispaniola (a compromise between wxman57's solution and my view) is more probable.

[NDG]

I can't wait to see the GFDL and HWRF, I am sure they will be right bias like Bertha and send out 94L out to sea,