Tropical Storm Fay Model Runs

[Mecklenburg]

it could become a major hurricane if it develops...

[KWT]

Problem for the models will obviously be the possiblity of landfalls on any one of the Caribbean islands could mess up thier intensity forecast if it wasn't being progged.

[Mecklenburg]

GFS shows a strong shear that might affect this system in the caribbean, that's why it doesn't bother on developing this which is contradicting to the SHIPS prediction.

[x-y-no]

GFS shows a strong shear that might affect this system in the caribbean, that's why it doesn't bother on developing this which is contradicting to the SHIPS prediction.

????

Once one gets out beyond day four, GFS has very little shear in the Caribbean.

[Ivanhater]

18Z GFS rolling in...

42 hours...

[Ed Mahmoud]

I tried to quote a post no longer there, and couldn't.


Anyway, anything that affects intensity, like SAL, could probably effect track. See BAM Medium a tad North of BAM Deep.

Anyway, I see SAL North of what might be potential 93L, but this disturbance doesn't look like it will have much in the way of SAL issues.


In my humble and amateur opinion.

[Mecklenburg]

i still don't see the gfs developing 92L invest,but it's doing pretty well with future 93L and 94L...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[Ivanhater]

54 hours....

future 93L looking good

[Derek Ortt]

Here may be what GFS is seeing

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8conv.html

same problem that Dolly had... not much low-level convergence

much better convergence for the system near 30-35W though

[KWT]

That would explain why the GFS is trying to do something with the region behind it even though there pretty much nothing there right now other then a few weak blobs of convection.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Dry air ahead of it may be why convection has backed off some, but even with partial poofation, this looks, IMHO, to being darned close to being a tropical depression.

Unofficially.


First two days, 18Z GFS like potential 93L better.

850 mb vorticity loop.
Also,, unrelated, watching Southwest Caribbean on this run, either a sneaky Atlantic basin system, or more likely an EPAC system.

[Ivanhater]

66 hours...better organized

[Ivanhater]

84 hours...

[Ivanhater]

[Ivanhater]

92L not so hot but future 93L is a full blown hurricane...

[canetracker]

18z GFS does basically the same thing the 12z GFS did at 96 hr with 92L. Personally, I am waiting on the 00z run.

[Ivanhater]

120 hours

[cycloneye]

Ivanheter,I think the rest of the run can be posted at the Long Range Models thread at TT.

[cycloneye]

The first GFDL plots in its 18z run tracks towards the Bahamas after brushing the Leeward islands.

WHXX04 KWBC 102328
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 92L

INITIAL TIME 18Z AUG 10

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 10.8 44.5 275./15.9
6 11.1 44.9 311./ 5.3
12 11.8 45.3 328./ 8.2
18 12.3 46.2 299./10.4
24 12.9 46.8 318./ 8.0
30 13.6 47.9 301./12.5
36 14.0 48.8 295./10.2
42 14.5 50.2 289./14.7
48 15.6 51.4 312./15.2
54 16.2 52.7 297./14.3
60 16.8 53.8 298./12.0
66 17.7 55.1 306./15.0
72 18.2 56.8 285./16.6
78 18.7 58.0 293./13.5
84 18.9 59.9 275./17.7
90 19.1 61.4 280./14.6
96 19.3 63.3 274./17.4
102 19.6 64.9 280./15.7
108 20.0 66.7 282./17.5
114 20.4 68.6 284./17.8
120 20.7 70.0 282./13.4
126 21.0 71.7 278./16.5

http://asp1.sbs.ohio-state.edu/tropical/guidance/

[Ivanhater]

Pretty scary track I'd say...