Ex Invest 93L in Central Atlantic

[HURAKAN]

[cycloneye]

00:00 UTC Best track for 93L.

AL, 93, 2008081200, , BEST, 0, 112N, 300W, 25, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/

[CrazyC83]

We could see Fay AND Gustav this week...

[HURAKAN]

[carolina_73]

93L is looking pretty good tonight!!!

[Ed Mahmoud]

Is that strato-cu, a sign of somewhat stable air, rotating into 93L from the North? If it is, 93L will be slow to develop.

Edit to add IR Channel Two Loop Central Atlantic.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Looks disorganized, but low cloud elements near 10ºN and 30ºN suggest West to East movement

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE AUG 12 2008

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1008 MB BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA IS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC NEAR 12N31W. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS INDICATIONS OF
BETTER ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS. A LARGE AREA OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACCOMPANIES THIS LOW FROM
7N-16N BETWEEN 27W-36W WHICH REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ.
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM WITHIN THIS AREA DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 KT.

[HURAKAN]

667
ABNT20 KNHC 121132
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE AUG 12 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
LOCATED 650 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. ASSOCIATED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN GRADUALLY INCREASING...AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY...IF NECESSARY.

A LARGE AND COMPLEX AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED OVER THE
EASTERN ATLANTIC EXTENDING FROM NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
SOUTHWESTWARD FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM
HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION SINCE YESTERDAY...A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD STILL FORM WITHIN THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAVE DIMINISHED.

ELSEWHERE.. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/BROWN

[cycloneye]

12:00 UTC Best Track:

AL, 93, 2008081212, , BEST, 0, 125N, 310W, 25, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0,

[Ed Mahmoud]

Looking at the floater, ingesting strato-cu from the North, will be a slow developer...

[HURAKAN]

Like a volcano, it looks dormant.

[canegrl04]

We could see Fay AND Gustav this week...

I believe so. Hopefully neither of them become hurricanes and threats to the US We don't need a one-two punch

[dixiebreeze]

667
ABNT20 KNHC 121132
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE AUG 12 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
LOCATED 650 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. ASSOCIATED SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN GRADUALLY INCREASING...AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY...IF NECESSARY.

A LARGE AND COMPLEX AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED OVER THE
EASTERN ATLANTIC EXTENDING FROM NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
SOUTHWESTWARD FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM
HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION SINCE YESTERDAY...A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD STILL FORM WITHIN THIS AREA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAVE DIMINISHED.

ELSEWHERE.. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER RHOME/BROWN

Oops:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/rb-l.jpg

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE AUG 12 2008

...SPECIAL FEATURES..
A 1009 MB LOW IS IN THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 12N33W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE LOW. THIS SYSTEM HAS CHANGED
LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION SINCE YESTERDAY...A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
COULD STILL FORM WITHIN THIS BROAD AREA OF WEATHER DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES W 10-15 MPH.

[cycloneye]

661
ABNT20 KNHC 121758
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE AUG 12 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DATA FROM NOAA BUOYS INDICATE THAT A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES EAST OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
LOW HAVE CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION SINCE THIS MORNING.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THE AREA.

ANOTHER BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA IS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL
ATLANTIC ABOUT 400 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAIN
DISORGANIZED. HOWEVER...SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE.. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/PASCH

[cycloneye]

18:00 UTC Best Track for 93L:

AL, 93, 2008081218, , BEST, 0, 133N, 310W, 25, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0,

[abajan]

Looking at the floater, ingesting strato-cu from the North, will be a slow developer...

It's interesting how stratocumulus look kinda similar from thousands of miles above as they do from a few thousand feet below.

[HURAKAN]

I still think this system has the possibility to develop in a few days but right now, no development in the next 24 to 48 hours.

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 122346
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT TUE AUG 12 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR SOMEWHAT CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT
AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE
THIS SYSTEM TOMORROW...IF NECESSARY.

ANOTHER BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...
IS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC ABOUT 600 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM REMAIN DISORGANIZED. HOWEVER...SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE.. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE