Gustav Recon Discussion

[pojo]

Pojo, whats up with this drop?

UZNT13 KNHC 281822
XXAA 78187 99180 70761 04486 99906 20818 ///// 00/// ///// /////
92/// ///// ///// 85372 18407 14566 70019 07000 15564 88999 77999
31313 09608 81802
61616 AF300 0807A GUSTAV OB 06
62626 EYEWALL 045 SPL 1808N07610W 1805 LST WND 822 AEV 00000 DLM
WND 15062 906707 =
XXBB 78188 99180 70761 04486 00906 20818 11732 12003 22707 11600
33699 06000
21212 00906 13565 11905 13062 22891 13574 33850 14566 44810 15055
55699 15564
31313 09608 81802
61616 AF300 0807A GUSTAV OB 06
62626 EYEWALL 045 SPL 1808N07610W 1805 LST WND 822 AEV 00000 DLM
WND 15062 906707 =


I'm pretty confident the surface pressure isn't 906mb.

sfc readings: missing winds, pressure 906mb
1000mb: missing
925mb: missing

the drop should have caught this bad sonde and not sent it out to the arwo..... since this was taken in the eyewall on the 45* radial outbound it is missing winds at the low levels.... in eyewall drops winds are required on drops. The 850mb and the 700mb pressures are way to low also.

[Just Joshing You]

180400 1806N 07601W 6974 03073 0019 +053 +053 132053 055 085 029 00

Does that mean 55 kt FL winds, 85 SFMR?

[deltadog03]

Pojo....are they heading towards 96?

[CrazyC83]

180400 1806N 07601W 6974 03073 0019 +053 +053 132053 055 085 029 00

Does that mean 55 kt FL winds, 85 SFMR?

55 kt FL on that measurement. The SFMR says 85 kt but on that flight it should be ignored as there were so many wild estimates (one was 147 kt).

[Just Joshing You]

yes, I know that it should be thrown out, but it wasn't tagged with an 03. I primarily just wanted to make sure I was reading it correctly.

[Just Joshing You]

Pojo....are they heading towards 96?

I've been wondering if they would check it out as well.

[RL3AO]

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 72
A. 29/1800, 30/0000Z
B. AFXXX 1007A GUSTAV
C. 29/1515Z
D. 18.7N 79.9W
E. 29/1700Z TO 30/0000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

This flight was supposed to be out there for a 0z fix but they left early. So they might actually be heading for BOC.

[HenkL]

URNT11 KNHC 282108
97779 21064 50211 85600 73300 99005 68711 /5755
RMK AF300 0807A GUSTAV OB 12
LAST REPORT

[RL3AO]

Interesting the they took the other way home.

[pojo]

180400 1806N 07601W 6974 03073 0019 +053 +053 132053 055 085 029 00

Does that mean 55 kt FL winds, 85 SFMR?

SXXX50 KNHC 190617

061230 1658N 08215W 7000 03000 9000 +108 +108 352159 161 145 100 00
Taking the last line:

1) 06:12:30 GMT
2) 16.58N
3) 082.15W
4) Static pressure in airplane of 700.0hPa
5) Geopotential height of 3000m
6) 30 second surface pressure mean extrapolation of 900.0hPa
7) 30 second mean air temperature of +10.8C
8) 30 second mean dew point of +10.8C
9) 30 second mean wind direction of 352 degrees
10) 30 second mean wind of 159kts
11) Ten second gust of 161kts
12) Peak ten second SFMR surface wind of 145kts
13) SFMR precipitation rate of 100mmh[sup]-1[/sup]
14) Suspect data codes are as follows:

First column indicates status of positional variables as follows:
0 All parameters of nominal accuracy
1 Lat/lon questionable
2 Geopotential altitude or static pressure questionable
3 Both lat/lon and GA/PS questionable

Second column indicates status of meteorological variables as follows:
0 All parameters of nominal accuracy
1 T or TD questionable
2 Flight-level winds questionable
3 SFMR parameter(s) questionable
4 T/TD and FL winds questionable
5 T/TD and SFMR questionable
6 FL winds and SFMR questionable
9 T/TD, FL winds, and SFMR questionable

[pojo]

Pojo....are they heading towards 96?

no..... the eye is over land.... we can't drop over land can't get the exact fix over land... eye is located 15 mi ENE of Kingston
here is the flight path.

[cycloneye]

pojo,no plans to task Hanna yet?

[pojo]

pojo,no plans to task Hanna yet?

i have no idea.... haven't been into work today.... go in shortly to launch tonights aircraft and recover 5300.

[RL3AO]

Good news. Recon is going straight across Cuba. That will cut 2 hours off the flight time there.

[Scorpion]

What time should it arrive?

[RL3AO]

80 minutes or so.

[Cyclenall]

998 millibars. This storm got the hell kicked out of it.

I'm not so sure about that. The center might be inland and recon isn't getting the highest winds and lowest pressure. It seems like Gustav is one of those storms that can easily recover from anything. It doesn't look that bad but it's structure can somehow just flip on RI mode. This means any damage it takes means very little overall compared to other TC's.

I just get a kick out of watching how rapid Gustav can recover that would normally be hard for other cyclones.

[UKane]

I do too

[superfly]

I will be surprised if recon doesn't show that Gustav is a cane again, it looks very impressive on satellite.

[dwg71]

I dont think it will be a cane for another 12 - 18 hours. I'm anxious to see how it interacts with trough, signs are already beginning that it has and may begin a more NWesterly motion. JMO.