WPAC JANGMI: Tropical Storm - Discussion

[P.K.]

Typhoon Hunter is currently on a train on the way to Hualien (Given the northerly jog of the forecasts) and he says the services are still running normally despite what is happening just offshore.

[HURAKAN]

Trying to become annular?

[apocalypt-flyer]

Best-looking storm of 2008 FULL STOP.

[Chacor]

Recon flight is now ascending. Lowest extrapolated pressure: 901.2 hPa, maximum flight-level winds: 159 kt NW quad.

[Chacor]

Must've missed this, but there was a 163 kt FL wind.

URPA12 PGUA 270755
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 27/07:55:30Z
B. 20 deg 58 min N
125 deg 05 min E
C. 700 mb 2294 m
D. 118 kt
E. 135 deg 10 nm
F. 237 deg 136 kt
G. 137 deg 11 nm
H. 906 mb
I. 12 C / 3049 m
J. 24 C / 3043 m
K. 9 C / NA
L. CLOSED
M. C18
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 1.5 nm
P. AF306 0747W JANGMI OB 28
MAX FL WIND 163 KT E QUAD 06:16:40Z
SFC CNTR 360 / 4 NM FROM FL CNTR
WELL DEVELOPED EYE, FULL STADIUM EFFECT VISIBLE WITH SEVERAL STRAITIONS IN EYEWALL CLOUDS RUNNING DIAGONALLY ALONG WALL SURFACE FROM TOP TO BASE.

[apocalypt-flyer]

That's 115/120 10-minutes sustained.

[Chacor]

That's 115/120 10-minutes sustained.

Closer to 125-130, actually. FL was around 2500-3000m, so around 0.85 to 0.9 reduction factor. Taking 0.9, 163 kt reduces to 147 kt 1-min, or around 128 kt 10-min.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I don't think I've ever seen the JMA go 125 or 130 knots ever. If the data supports it then it would be something to see...In the JTWC could go 145 knots.

[HURAKAN]

Beginnings of EWRC?

[P.K.]

Only two systems have ever been warned at 125kts. Bess in 1982 and Tip in 1979. The last 120kt TY was Yuri in 1991.

[Chacor]

WTPQ20 RJTD 271200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0815 JANGMI (0815)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 271200UTC 21.3N 124.4E GOOD
MOVE NW 13KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 115KT
GUST 165KT
50KT 120NM
30KT 240NM
FORECAST
24HF 281200UTC 24.7N 121.1E 75NM 70%
MOVE NW 12KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
48HF 291200UTC 27.3N 121.3E 160NM 70%
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 301200UTC 29.3N 124.9E 220NM 70%
MOVE ENE 09KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

[Chacor]

Eye is shrinking in size and getting warmer.

[P.K.]

115kts makes it the strongest typhoon since Angela in 1995 but I do think 115kts is still too low.

[O Town]

Wow, that is an insane storm!
Recon must be having a wild ride right about now.
Wonder if Typhoon Hunter will be there to intercept this one?

[HURAKAN]

Based on the RECON reports 163 knots x .85 = 138.55 knots

I used .85 conversion to be conservative. It may be .90

[Squarethecircle]

0_____________________0
I woke up this morning, turned on the computer, clicked on the "NRL" on my bookmarks, clicked on Jangmi, and I saw this, and couldn't divert my eyes for more than a minute. Then I saw 163 FL (on here), and I nearly fell out of my chair.

[CrazyC83]

I'd say 150 kt for the intensity given the Recon estimate and satellite appearance.

[Chacor]

Still a very, very warm eye.

[Typhoon Hunter]

O Town, I'm here on location in Hualien in eastern Taiwan. Only last week I was here filming a doco on typhoons!

Checked into the usual solidly constructed hotel and priority is now rest. I will be up at first light to check updates and relocated if need by. There are options available for shelter in EXTREME winds including the hospital we used during Sepat last year.

More updates to come....

[Chacor]

TY 0815 (Jangmi)
Issued at 13:40 UTC, 27 September 2008
<Analyses at 27/13 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Very Intense
Center position N21°25'(21.4°)
E124°10'(124.2°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 910hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 60m/s(115kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 85m/s(165kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more Wide 220km(120NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more Wide 440km(240NM)